A.L. Stock Watch: Stay away from Kason Gabbard
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March 23, 2008 - March 29, 2008 ArchivesMarch 28
By David Ferris Two American League clubs are already on the board, but let's focus on the other 14 outfits, still toiling away in Florida and Arizona. There are lessons to be learned from the spring results if you look in the right areas; get out your notebook and follow along. BATTERS BUY Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers – His super camp (1.081 OPS) earned him the cleanup spot, and the runs flow freely in Texas, especially when the weather warms. Blalock's strong finish to 2007 didn’t draw a lot of attention; he’s been a bargain in most leagues this spring. Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals – Was the second-half rally something we can get behind? The spring results give a thumbs up: Gordon’s got a solid .308 average and .438 on-base percentage this month, with 11 walks against nine strikeouts. This might be the last draft season where you can land him at a reasonable price. Gerald Laird, C, Rangers – He’s not going to make anyone forget Pudge Rodriguez, but Laird has swung a big stick all month (.311, four homers), and Jarrod Saltamacchia now toils at Triple-A. Don’t be surprised if we see 15 homers and 70 RBIs from Laird. SELL Brandon Wood, 3B, Angels – Do the Halos overrate their prospects, or simply fail to develop them? Wood hasn’t hit much this month, that’s for sure: .135 average, 21 strikeouts, zero walks. Richie Sexson, 1B, Mariners – You can give him a mulligan all you want for 2007, but we saw too many inside fastballs get by him last year, and things haven’t been different in camp (.379 slugging percentage, 18 strikeouts in 58 at-bats). HOLD Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Angels – Sore elbow, huh? A.L. pitchers don’t believe it. Vlad’s doing his normal thing this spring, hobbling around like Fred G. Sanford but mashing anyway (.326, four homers, 16 RBIs in just 47 at-bats). Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins – Don’t worry too much about the sore hamstring of the last few days; Go-Go Gomez already has the center-field job sewn up. His 11 steals in the spring have fantasy owners dreaming about 40-50 bags when the bell rings. PITCHERS BUY Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners – Look past the ERA and the homers allowed (six); we see two walks against 19 strikeouts and conclude King Felix is putting a few things together. Of course, we’d also like to see him take some old Seattle pitching advice – "smoke him inside" was the catchphrase of the old Pilots – but one step at a time. With some trepidation, put us down for the extra buck here. (Fantasy rule of thumb – if you look at just two things from a pitcher in March, let it be walks and strikeouts.) Denny Bautista/Aquilino Lopez, RPs, Tigers – Jim Leyland desperately needs a second option in his bullpen with Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya hurt, so get these guys on your radar. Both are off strong camps: Bautista has a 1.42 ERA with 12 strikeouts against three walks, while Lopez is at 1.32 with three walks and 15 whiffs. Lopez isn’t a complete stranger to ninth-inning and inner-city pressure – he saved 14 games as a rookie with the Blue Jays in 2003 – but it looks like Bautista starts the year higher on Leyland’s pecking order. Bottom line, be aware of both guys here. SELL Kason Gabbard, SP, Rangers – The club says his poor spring hasn’t cost him a rotation spot; good news for hitters all through the American League. Gabbard has allowed 28 hits over 16.2 Cactus League innings, along with 10 walks against just nine strikeouts. If he brings that act to Arlington, hide the women and children. Dontrelle Willis, SP, Tigers – So what if he’s tied to a better offense and defense this time around? Florida hitters have owned him for the last four weeks (8.64 ERA, 15 walks, 12 strikeouts), underscoring that D-Train’s mechanical bugs won’t be worked out overnight. Troy Percival, RP, Rays – He was having a fine spring until a seven-spot reared its head last week, but mostly we’re bearish because we can’t imagine Percival staying intact through six months of high-leverage innings. Joe Maddon has several other choices at his disposal, starting with Dan Wheeler. A.J. Burnett, SP, Blue Jays – His curveball didn’t come out until a few days ago, and batters had no problem digging in all month (23 hits over 18.1 innings; nine walks against just eight strikeouts). We need to see some proof that Burnett is over last year’s shoulder problems before we get invested. HOLD Javier Vazquez, SP, White Sox – It’s our nature to be skeptical on any pitcher who spiked like Vazquez did in 2007, but a tidy spring (four walks, 22 strikeouts over 17.2 innings) buys some cred. Maybe Vazquez has finally found a home in the Second City. 
By Rob Steingall These recommendations are only for March 31 through April 6 unless otherwise suggested. AMERICAN LEAGUE Put’em in Billy Butler, 1B/DH, Royals: Hitting in the middle of an underrated lineup, Butler should be a solid fantasy contributor this season. Hitting well over .300 this spring with a handful of bombs, he oozes fantasy potential at the tender age of 21. Rich Harden, SP, A’s: Healthy and dominant this spring, Fragile Rich was a late-round bargain on draft day. His first outing against the Red Sox was outstanding (6 innings, 1 run, 3 hits, 3 walks, 9 Ks); just hope he doesn’t get injured on the flight home from Japan. He’s special when healthy. Bench ‘em Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: Barely hit over the Mendoza line this spring, and split the first two games in Japan with Coco Crisp. Terry Francona is also batting him eighth to “ease the adjustment” despite Ellsbury leading off during 2007’s championship run. Ryan Garko, 1B, Indians: Coming off a breakout ’07 campaign, Garko has been slow to get the bat going this spring, with an average in the low .200s. Former top prospect Andy Marte showed serious power this spring and saw time at first, signaling he occasionally may play at Garko’s expense. NATIONAL LEAGUE Put’em in Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: Finally getting a chance to play every day, Milledge should thrive batting second in a much improved Washington lineup. He’s shown his five-tool talent this spring, providing a late-round bargain in fantasy drafts. He’ll be playing with a chip on his shoulder this season after being dumped by the Mets. Eugenio Velez, 2B, Giants: His role dramatically increases now that Kevin Frandsen is out for the year with a ruptured Achilles. He stole 58 bases at various levels last season and double digits in Cactus League games this spring. He could carry you in that category early on. Bench ‘em Carlos Delgado, 1B, Mets: Slowed by an ailing hip, Delgado enters the season with limited work at the plate and memories of a forgettable ’07. Last April, he hit .188 with one homer. His age and health raise enough red flags to employ a wait-and-see approach. Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins: A nagging hamstring injury lands him on the DL at least the first four games. While his .295 batting average, 18 home runs and 63 runs batted in last season show serious upside, he’s never been quick to recover from injury.
March 27
By David Ferris Sure, plenty of misleading signs can come from spring training, but we’re not doing our job if we don’t try to pick through the Florida and Arizona numbers, searching for something of value. Get on your prospecting hat and let’s try to separate the gems from the rubble. BATTERS BUY Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers – He’s got batting-title upside if the Dodgers would merely make a spot for him (easier said than done; no one wants to take Juan Pierre’s bloated contract). Ethier’s having an electric camp, with a .488 average, six homers, and 13 walks against just three strikeouts. Lefties don’t faze him, and he’s capable of hitting just about any pitch. Here’s a spot where we invest in the skill and worry about the role later. Eugenio Velez, 2B, Giants – He rolled up 58 steals in three different stops last year, and he’ll be needed to play by the bay, where Kevin Fransden has a serious injury (Achilles) and Omar Vizquel has a minor one (knee). Velez won’t excite anyone with his bat, but there’s a monstrous steal upside if the Giants let him play even three to four times a week. A shame he can’t take his Cactus League stats with him – he’s got 14 bags this month. SELL Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers – He’s as trendy as it gets in the NL outfield, and with just reason (.318 spring, 18 RBIs), but don’t miss the fact that he’s also got 15 strikeouts against just one walk, and Joe Torre might use him in the bottom third of the order to begin the year. In a vacuum we like Kemp, but it might be hard to make a profit on him for 2008 – too many people in the room are mad for him. HOLD Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers – Full disclosure, he’s been a pet player in this space for a while, but we need to note that he’s had a miserable month: sore hand, a pile of strikeouts (25), not many walks (two). But if Weeks can stay on the field for 125 games or more, we still expect a 20-30 season. Maybe you don’t want to go plus-one on Weeks right now, but don’t let someone steal him for under market value. PITCHERS BUY Brian Wilson, RP, Giants – The big knock on him as a potential closer was the control issue, but he made strides on that late in 2007, and it’s carried over into this month (one walk in 10.2 innings, along with 11 strikeouts). Bruce Bochy committed the ninth inning to Wilson very early in camp, and even if the Giants win less than 70 games, they’ll be able to support a 30-save closer. SELL Franklin Morales, SP, Rockies – It’s been a messy month for the young lefty (6.65 ERA, 1.80 ratio, 10 walks and four homers over 21 innings), and even as he starts the year as Colorado’s No. 5 starter, there’s a good chance he’ll be in Triple-A at some point in the first half. Let the images from late 2007 go – there are growing pains ahead. Barry Zito, SP, Giants – His first go-round in San Francisco was mediocre (4.53 ERA, 1.35 ratio), and his fastball is topping out around 84 this spring. That’s how you allow 24 runs in 25 spring innings, kids, and keep in mind he’s supported by perhaps the worst offense in the National League. When Zito’s name comes up at the auction, you have our permission to leave the room. On second thought, consider that a mandate; Planet Zito isn’t a safe place for fantasy owners any longer. Homer Bailey, SP, Reds – He was a hot name at this time last year, but for most of this month he’s been pitching like a barfly at Moe’s Tavern; if you have to invest in a young Cincinnati arm, go get Johnny Cueto or Edinson Volquez. Bailey’s had trouble with his control in camp (16 walks in 19 innings), and when he’s in the zone hitters are teeing off (24 hits, 12 runs). Doh! HOLD Cla Meredith, RP, Padres – He came to camp with something to prove after a step back in 2007, and so far, so good (one earned run over nine innings, two walks, 15 strikeouts). You could do a lot worse for your final bullpen slot in NL-only.
By Michael Salfino Each year, if you rank major-league teams by the 10 most common fantasy baseball categories, you separate real-life losers from winners. So a case can be made that average fantasy prices can be converted to actual value. Armed with average fantasy prices in hundreds of leagues courtesy of our friends at FantasyAuctioneer.com, let’s see how Average Joes value major leaguers compared to the GMs who actually get paid for the privilege. For clarity’s sake, we’ll convert fantasy prices into major-league equivalent salaries. The translation is based on the percentages each group of owners paid out of their respective salary pools ($3,120 for fantasy leaguers and about $2.7 billion in 2007 for real GMs). The average fantasy owner in a 12-team, mixed (AL and NL) league paid the major-league equivalent of $41.7 million for Alex Rodriguez. Let’s look at the major free agent signings this offseason and see if our Joes give the real-life GMs a thumbs up or down. The Red Sox gave Mike Lowell an average of $12.5 million over three years. Joes say he’s worth $13.03 million in 2008. The Royals paid Jose Guillen a three-year average of $12 million. Joes, on average, spend $10.4 million, but they’re worried about losing 13 games to a steroids suspension that may yet be overturned. The Mariners gave pitcher Carlos Silva $12 million on average over four years. Mixed leaguers left him on the waiver wire. But fantasy leaguers in 12-team leagues that draft only American League players can better relate Silva’s value. They went to a whopping $2 (of their $260 team budget), or about $1.74 million of real-world-equivalent money. Joes say, “Thumbs down, way down,” to Silva. The biggest deal of the offseason (after A-Rod) was signed by Torii Hunter, now of the Angels ($18 million per for five years). That’s exactly what those playing in mixed leagues think he’s worth. AL-only players average about $22.6 million, but likely significantly less by the time his real-world deal expires. Let’s look at some other average fantasy prices in making the following recommendations. Buy Brian McCann, C, Braves: He’s going for $13 in most fantasy leagues despite being 24 and having knocked in 90-plus runs two years straight while toiling behind the dish. It’s doubtful his rate of homers on flyballs peaked at age 22. If he matches that again, he smacks 25 round-trippers in ’08. Why can’t he beat it? Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, White Sox. He hit 35 homers in 2006. Last year, he still put 14 over the wall on the road. Since U.S. Cellular inflates homers more than Coors, 30 homers is the floor, 35 the projection and 40-plus a reasonable hope. He’s also 27 years old, when most hitters peak. Travis Hafner, DH, Indians: Sometimes a bad year is just that, and not a trend. Suddenly, Pronk has “old-guy skills.” So the stat guys have bailed. They’ll regret it. I see a bounce back because he was just too good for too long and is still too young to be done. Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: He’s having a good spring and projects to 20/20 in homers/steals. There’s a reasonable chance he can hit .300, too. But his max-effort swing argues against a high average in the near term. I’m told the new home digs will still play for pitchers. Hold Clay Buchholz, P, Red Sox: Savvy drafters root for springs like this. Bartolo Colon might serve as fifth starter while Buchholz takes a regular turn in Triple A. That lasts until June 1 at the outside. When Buchholz ultimately is inserted in the Red Sox rotation, he will pitch well. Pay the $3 and stash him on your reserves. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: He’s been sent down already as the Rays try to save a few bucks by delaying free agency for a year way down the road. That’s way too cute, but now you can get him as a Mixed League reserve. Sell Felix Hernandez, P, Mariners: Friend and colleague Gene McCaffrey (WiseGuyBaseball.com) has bailed. I’m inclined to agree, recognizing as he does that this is a make-or-break year for greatness from Hernandez and he definitely might make it. But Queen Felix refuses to battle for the inside half of the plate, as most great ones do quite fiercefully. Jonathan Papelbon, P, Red Sox: He’s costing a relative fortune ($23). You need closers with fleas in fantasy. So look instead for weak guys on good teams: Trevor Hoffman, Joe Borowski, Todd Jones. Juan Pierre, OF, Dodgers: I’ll believe he’s really benched when I see it. But he should be (in favor of Andre Ethier). Even if he was starting, $18 is crazy considering the zero power. Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies: Sorry, I don’t pay top dollar for a guy who strikes out 200 times (OK, 199). That means batting average is always at risk. Why not take Carlos Pena (just 18 months older) for half the money after Pena smacked 47 homers last year. Pena blasted 45 bombs in 640 at bats in 2005 and 2006.
By David Ferris All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases). Last Updated: 3/25 First Base/DH Second Base Shortstop Third Base Outfield Catcher
By David Ferris All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio). Last Updated: 3/25 Starting Pitchers
March 24
By David Ferris Numbers and skills are a large part of the fantasy equation, but a player’s environment can’t be ignored. Home parks, blocked positions, managerial tendencies and many other factors have to be considered as we decide who the bears and bulls are. Keep that theme in mind as we peruse the latest American League shopping list. BUY Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers – I was a little skeptical when the Reds moved him so cheaply over the winter, but Hamilton’s electric spring has quickly erased any doubt. Last year was a tidy step forward, but Hamilton has the look of a breakthrough star in 2008. It wouldn’t shock me to see .290-100-30-100 go up on the board. Richie Sexson, 1B, Mariners – He couldn’t turn on inside fastballs last year, and this spring he’s having trouble with a sore shoulder. Sexson’s too young to be ready for the scrap heap, on paper, but the trends of 2007 have me unwilling to bid. Power generally costs too much at the draft table anyway, and Sexson has two other red flags on his file (no speed; batting average risk). Jarrod Saltamacchia, C, Rangers – He isn’t guaranteed a roster spot yet, though the three-run homer he jacked on Thursday certainly didn’t hurt the cause. The upside of Salty is so great – especially in the Arlington Undertow – that I’m content to hold a spot for him until the Rangers tip their hand, even in mixed groups. Kevin Slowey, SP, Twins – We’ve seen three good turns in a row after a messy spring debut, which means we can feel good about a bid for Brad Radke 2.0 this time around. The back end of the Minnesota rotation has plenty of intriguing values: Scott Baker is a nice upside play, and Boof Bonser has the stuff to be fantasy-worthy in all formats. Joba Chamberlain, RP, Yankees – The electric arm is no joke – you don’t go to the restroom or the hot-dog stand when this power righty is on the mound. But Chamberlain’s fantasy value in the bullpen is far less than what we’d get if he was taking a turn every five days. I still love the player, but I can’t bid too much given what the current role is. Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers – He’s got the head and the raw stuff to be a Cy Young contender, not to mention a reasonable park to work in and a healthy offense supporting him. Verlander won’t be cheap on draft day, but if there’s any AL righty to bid the extra buck or two on, here’s the guy. Upside: 20 wins, 215 strikeouts.
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