Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Most of the guys who tanked in 2007 are viewed as future bums, too, because fans are too angry and analysts too analytical to simply say, “He had a bad year.”

But “Last Year’s Bums,” as coined by my friend and colleague Gene McCaffrey (WiseGuyBaseball.com), are often just that. This year? Who knows.

As we noted last week in our piece on 2007’s NL Bums, performance declines experienced last year can simply be the result of random variance. But we all have a tendency to look for patterns, real or imagined.

A player who is in his 30s has a bad year, and suddenly we notice how his on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) declined mildly the two years before. Now we have a pattern. Slugger X is done. At a minimum, we predict there is but a lottery-ticket’s chance he recaptures past glory.

Or, a highly regarded player bursts on the scene, only to struggle mightily. That guy is labeled a toolsy bum who almost certainly will never amount to anything. Think Devil Rays first baseman Carlos Pena before last year’s MVP-caliber season.

I will stipulate there’s good chance the following players will continue to disappoint. Perhaps that’s even likely. But the odds are closer to a coin flip than we think. Many of these guys get discounted as if there’s only some nominal chance they will rebound. And almost all of the handful of optimistic projections are still depressed because they are based on that terrible 2007. There’s a decent chance, though, that last season’s bottom line will prove completely irrelevant.

So, given their low cost, let’s put a “Buy” on these bums except where otherwise noted.

Travis Hafner, 1B, Indians: You could put Richie Sexson and Lyle Overbay in the “Bum” category, too. But I’m far more bullish on a Hafner bounce back. Alas, the discount will not be as great. His rate of homers on fly balls was cut from 31 percent to 16 percent. Steroids? Again, we’re seeking a reason for what’s likely a random event. Expect his rate to jump back to about 25 percent, which gives him 35 homers if everything else from last year stays the same (it won’t, but you get the idea).

Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels: Josh Barfield was the bigger bum, but, like most bums, lost his job. There’s a realization that Kendrick is not going to run or hit homers and mostly provides empty batting average – a rich man’s Jose Vidro. Kendrick has an awfully low (15.9 percent) line-drive rate for a guy who hit .381 on balls in play (average is .300). Kendrick won’t be discounted enough to buy.

Julio Lugo, SS, Red Sox: Bobby Crosby is the truer bum. But he’s chronically injured. Lugo is hurt now, too, but there’s no injury to explain him hitting .233 with a .332 slugging his last 716 at bats. He will run if his bad back proves as inconsequential as it did during recent medical tests; the Red Sox attempted 120 steals last year, a big number considering all their plodders.

Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays: Eric Chavez’s back is still broken. Joe Crede’s is surgically repaired, but he’s battling for playing time. Alex Gordon was another bum, but he still has that Kendrick-style prospect juice. Rolen’s shoulder was surgically repaired and he’s been a near Hall of Fame-caliber player when healthy. The Skydome greatly inflates power numbers, too.

Luke Scott, OF, Orioles: Most people think Vernon Wells' pattern is every-other-year (how silly, when you think about it); a smaller number say, “'Roids.” Coco Crisp is another outfield bum, but needs a ticket out of Boston to get necessary at bats. Scott looks like Carlos Pena to me: promising lefty power hitter who finally gets full-time at-bats. So 25 homers is the floor and 30 a reasonable projection.

Dioner Navarro, C, Rays: The atrocious '07 bottom line masks a nice finish: .294/.344/.492 in August and September. He’s only 24 and was once expected to hit. More good news: homers on an above-average 13 percent of fly balls after the break.

Jered Weaver, P, Angels: So many bums at pitcher (as always). Felix Hernandez never pitches to his stuff because he lacks pitching smarts and toughness (i.e., knocking guys on their keisters). Jeremy Bonderman throws 34 percent sliders, now mostly a specialty pitch for relievers given the strain it places on the elbow. So that leaves us with Weaver, who looks too much like evil brother Jeff to many. Yes, Jered’s K-rate declined by 25 percent and even further in the second half. But he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher (No. 1 in the AL) and these extreme guys are at least good and often great because they have the stuff to dictate pitcher-hitter outcomes.

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