Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

March 16, 2008 - March 22, 2008 Archives

By David Ferris

A Final Four trip might be acceptable in some other sports, but in fantasy baseball, the season only becomes a success when you’re getting a Yoo-Hoo shower in October. Here’s a current buying guide to keep you on course.

BATTERS

BUY

Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals – The new club is letting him run as he pleases this spring, and there’s a good chance he’ll open the year hitting second. Can you say “Post-Hype Sleeper?” Sure you can.

Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates – He’s having a solid camp (.359, three steals), and while he hasn’t dispatched Nyjer Morgan yet in the battle for the center-field job, it’s just a matter of time. Keep in mind McLouth rolled up 13 homers and 22 steals in 329 at-bats when most weren’t paying attention last year, the joy of a small-market screen.

SELL

Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets – Now in his 30s, you have to wonder how much longer he’ll be interested in paying the physical price that comes with stealing bases. And let’s not forget that he had knee surgery in the offseason. Beltran is still a heckuva player with a bat in his hands, but don’t make any heavy assumptions on the bag count when you’re valuating him this month.

Juan Pierre, OF, Dodgers – He’ll never help you in the power categories, and he won’t help you much from the bench if Andre Ethier and others cut into his playing time. Ethier has been a frozen-rope machine this month while Pierre is struggling, and don’t forget that they’re playing for a new skipper. You can find your stolen bases elsewhere – you don’t need a one-trick pony like Pierre.

HOLD

Jayson Nix, 2B, Rockies – His glove probably gives him the edge at second base for the Rockies, but he’s got enough of an offensive upside to make us interested – just make sure you’re snagging him during the endgame. Clint Hurdle’s lineup jockeying can bring a fantasy owner to tears, but if Nix gets 400 at-bats or more, we’ll make a profit here.

PITCHERS

BUY

Matt Cain, SP, Giants – He’ll be cheaper than teammate Tim Lincecum, in part because fantasy owners will hold Cain’s crummy win total against him. But in the fantasy world it’s better to look at the other categories and let the victories sort themselves out; chase wins in March and you’ll be pulling your hair out in June. Cain might have to be Sundance to Lincecum’s Cassidy over the next few years, but he’d be a clear No. 1 on several other clubs. Enjoy a solid discount on him, at least this once.

SELL

Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs – He’s done enough to solidify his spot in the rotation this spring, but we see too many accidents on the racing form (2001 and 2003 come to mind). There’s no need for Lou Piniella to slide Dempster back into the bullpen; the team has more than enough options there. Even if we could land Dempster for a buck, we’d pass; the more innings this wild righty gets, the more damage he can do to your ERA and ratio.

HOLD

John Smoltz, SP, Braves – Forget the age here and forget what we think we know about veteran pitchers. Smoltz has proven to be a consistent stock for two decades – he’s had what, one bad year? – and while others are scared by his oncoming 41st birthday, we’re not afraid to cut another check here. Many shook their heads when the Braves put Smoltz back into the rotation before the 2005 season, but the critics haven’t had much to say after three more elite seasons.

John Maine, SP, Mets – Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but here’s one arm we completely believe in, a solid three-pitch guy in a big park surrounded by a contending club and offense. Maine didn’t pitch well in his first spring appearances, but he’s been mowing down hitters since. Last season wasn’t a surprise for Maine, it was the floor for what’s coming in 2008. Somehow, he’s still underrated.

By Michael Salfino

There are a bunch of topics in my inbox that don’t warrant a full column but are nonetheless interesting. Let’s do a "By The Numbers" potpourri before the season starts in earnest next week.

Friend and colleague Gene McCaffrey in his great "Wise Guy Baseball" annual went to the trouble to track the disabled list last year and writes that “at any moment 140 players were on the DL.” Put another way, about 20 percent of everyone’s roster should be expected to be sidelined due to injury. That seems high.

Some of these guys presumably were injured the prior year or in the offseason and just remained sidelined. Francisco Liriano (Tommy John surgery in 2006) and Juan Rivera, who broke his leg in winter ball after the 2006 season and missed all but 14 games, come to mind, but not too many others. McCaffrey adds that about 400 players total go on the DL each year.

The Indians and the Red Sox had the fewest DL trips last year (nine each); the A’s the most (22), followed by the Phillies (an NL-leading 19). It’s not how many guys a team loses, but the quality of the lost players and extent of the injury that most matters when assessing good or bad injury luck.

But I believe McCaffrey’s reasonably demonstrated that there's a 50-percent chance of “Player X” going on the DL this year. (Make sure to get “Player Y” instead.)

Also recently received my "Bill James Gold Mine 2008," which has the substantive yet breezy style that characterized his great Baseball Abstracts back in the 1980s.

I noted with interest his piece on quantifying consistency. The bottom line is that the average “good” hitter has a consistency score of .743, while the average “good” pitcher is .696. That’s not as big a difference as you'd suspect.

Of course, the problem is not only defining what's good, which James does convincingly with his Win Shares, but limiting your data to only good players. Aren't players who reach a significant threshold of "goodness" inherently more consistent?

Still, hitters are about 7 percent more consistent than hitters of about the same quality. That means they reasonably are worth about 7 percent more (assuming you pay for projectability). In the biggest player procurement market around, the fantasy baseball one, teams field 23 players, 14 of which are hitters. Hitting and pitching categories have equal value. Since about 61 percent of your players are hitters and they are about 7 percent more projectable, there’s a mathematical case for spending 68 percent of your fantasy baseball budget on pitching. Wouldn’t you know, that’s just about what the average fantasy owners spends on hitting. Their collective intuition appears correct.

Similarly, let’s use the wisdom of crowds to project the best hitters and pitchers of 2008. These results come courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com, which compiles data from thousands of fantasy baseball drafts.

The fantasy community says 10 of the top 12 offensive players now reside in the NL: (in order) Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Matt Holliday, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols (elbow), Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. The best overall hitter is Alex Rodriguez, with new Tiger Miguel Cabrera slotting between Rollins and Utley.

The best starter overall is the Mets' Johan Santana, with Erik Bedard, who the Mariners recently acquired, slotting well behind him as the AL’s best pitcher.

Let’s see who the fantasy market is over and undervaluing.

Buy

Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers: Before last year, Furcal and Jimmy Rollins were indistinguishable. Now, Rollins is first-round Fantasy Gold while Furcal slides to the fourth or fifth round. Passing on Jimmy and buying low with Furcal (they’re about the same age) is the surest way to turn a profit.

Josh Beckett, P, Red Sox: Fans are running to the hills over the bad back that will keep Beckett from making the season-opening trip to Japan. But the only difference between Beckett and more than half the pitchers is that he’s got his (seemingly minor) injury now, when the games don’t count.

Hold

Joe Mauer, C, Twins: The fantasy market decided that Mauer’s power is not coming soon and that he’s a baby when it comes to playing through the normal catcher dings and bruises. Well, he’s out of action a lot. And the homers seem unlikely given the extreme ground-ball rate that increased from 2006 to 2007 and furthermore during the second-half of ’07.

Sell

Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: Another guy who hits too many ground balls to slug sufficiently. The magic he once worked on the bases seems diminished (15 for 23 stealing bases) and how likely is that to come back at age 34? Orlando Cabrera goes four rounds later in most drafts and is the wise play relative to cost.

Francisco Liriano, P, Twins: He’s "thicker," which is a nice way of saying "fat.” The fastball seems fatter, too. And slower. He hasn’t pitched in more than 18 months. Sadly, sometimes guys don’t come back from Tommy John surgery.

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases).
* = check status

Last Updated: 3/18
Next Update: 3/25

First Base/DH
1. Prince Fielder, Brewers
2. Ryan Howard, Phillies
3. Mark Teixeira, Braves
4. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
NOTE: Solid spring eases concerns.
5. David Ortiz, Red Sox
6. Lance Berkman, Astros
7. Justin Morneau, Twins
8. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
9. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
10. Carlos Pena, Rays
NOTE: Those pretty 2007 stats are more real than you think.
11. Travis Hafner, Indians
12. Derrek Lee, Cubs
13. Paul Konerko, White Sox
14. Carlos Delgado, Mets
15. Ryan Garko, Indians
16. Gary Sheffield, Tigers
17. Jim Thome, White Sox
18. James Loney, Dodgers
NOTE: Power came late, so pay up.
19. Billy Butler, Royals
20. Todd Helton, Rockies
21. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
22. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
23. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
24. Frank Thomas, Blue Jays
25. Casey Kotchman, Angels
NOTE: Line-drive bat but overrated for fantasy.
26. Richie Sexson, Mariners
27. Joey Votto, Reds
28. *Daric Barton, Athletics
29. Jason Giambi, Yankees
30. Nick Johnson, Nationals
31. Jose Vidro, Mariners
32. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
33. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
34. Kevin Millar, Orioles
35. Shelly Duncan, Yankees
36. Dan Ortmeier, Giants
37. Matt Stairs, Blue Jays
38. Ben Broussard, Rangers
39. Marcus Thames, Tigers
40. Ross Gload, Royals
41. Dmitri Young, Nationals
42. Dan Johnson, Athletics
43. Mike Sweeney, Athletics

Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
3. Robinson Cano, Yankees
NOTE: Comes with New York surtax.
4. Brian Roberts, Orioles
5. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
6. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
7. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
8. Howie Kendrick, Angels
9. Placido Polanco, Tigers
10. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
11. Dan Uggla, Marlins
12. Mark Ellis, Athletics
13. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
14. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
15. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
16. Kelly Johnson, Braves
17. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
NOTE: Pretty average, but empty columns elsewhere.
18. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
19. Luis Castillo, Mets
20. Jose Lopez, Mariners
21. Kaz Matsui, Astros
22. Jayson Nix, Rockies
23. Brendan Harris, Twins
24. Ray Durham, Giants
25. Erick Aybar, Angels
NOTE: Has wheels, but might be in time share.
26. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
27. *Tad Iguchi, Padres
28. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
29. Kevin Frandsen, Giants
30. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
31. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
32. Marcus Giles, Rockies
33. Danny Richar, White Sox
34. Jorge Cantu, Marlins

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Mets
2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
7. Michael Young, Rangers
NOTE: Just a solid guy, no longer a star.
8. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
9. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
10. Miguel Tejada, Astros
11. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
NOTE: Don't overpay for the lineup.
12. Khalil Greene, Padres
NOTE: Might hit 30 homers, but brings average risk.
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Jason Bartlett, Rays
15. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
16. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
17. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
18. Yunel Escobar, Braves
19. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
20. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
21. Jack Wilson, Pirates
22. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
23. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
24. Tony Pena, Royals
25. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
26. Adam Everett, Twins
27. *Omar Vizquel, Giants
28. Luis Hernandez, Orioles
29. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
30. *Alex Gonzalez, Reds
31. Nick Punto, Twins
32. Mark Loretta, Astros

Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
NOTE: The only logical No. 1 pick.
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Ryan Braun, Brewers
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
7. Chone Figgins, Angels
8. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
NOTE: Better than last, and new park helps.
9. Chipper Jones, Braves
NOTE: Skills are sublime, but bid on 430 at-bats.
10. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
11. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
12. Hank Blalock, Rangers
NOTE: Re-earned trust late in 2007.
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
14. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
NOTE: Nifty sleeper but can we trust Dusty?
15. Alex Gordon, Royals
16. Ty Wigginton, Astros
NOTE: Also qualifies at second base.
17. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
18. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
19. Evan Longoria, Rays
NOTE: Can't miss, but 2008 gig isn't guaranteed.
20. Josh Fields, White Sox
21. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
22. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
23. Casey Blake, Indians
24. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
25. Melvin Mora, Orioles
26. Jose Bautista, Pirates
27. Mike Lamb, Twins
28. Joe Crede, White Sox
29. Eric Chavez, Athletics
30. Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
31. Maicer Izturis, Angels
32. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
33. Juan Uribe, White Sox
34. Rich Aurilia, Giants
35. *Andy LaRoche, Dodgers
36. Chase Headley, Padres

Outfield
1. Matt Holliday, Rockies
2. Carl Crawford, Rays
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
NOTE: The Mayor of Ohio, fills every column.
4. Carlos Lee, Astros
5. *Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
6. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
NOTE: Late speed probably carries over.
8. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
9. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
NOTE: In a mild decline but spring struggles overrated.
10. B.J. Upton, Rays
11. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
12. Carlos Beltran, Mets
13. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
NOTE: You make profit merely with 2006 stats.
14. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
15. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
16. Torii Hunter, Angels
17. Corey Hart, Brewers
18. Hunter Pence, Astros
NOTE: What a ballplayer should look like.
19. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
20. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
21. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
NOTE: Power dip, no longer a value.
22. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
23. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
24. Adam Dunn, Reds
25. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
26. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
27. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
28. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
29. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
30. Nick Swisher, White Sox
31. Delmon Young, Twins
32. Jose Castillo, Marlins
33. Michael Bourn, Astros
34. Jason Bay, Pirates
NOTE: Bum year and small market equals nifty sleeper.
35. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
NOTE: Not a sexy play, but great support numbers.
36. Johnny Damon, Yankees
37. Josh Willingham, Marlins
38. Ken Griffey, Reds
39. Adam Jones, Orioles
40. Shane Victorino, Phillies
41. Mark Teahen, Royals
42. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
NOTE: Skills are legit but there's gridlock here.
43. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
44. Willy Taveras, Rockies
45. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
46. *Mike Cameron, Brewers
47. Jose Guillen, Royals
48. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
49. Pat Burrell, Phillies
NOTE: Loses at-bats due to leaky defense.
50. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
51. Bill Hall, Brewers
52. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
53. Aaron Rowand, Giants
54. David DeJesus, Royals
NOTE: Has the jets but hasn't learned to steal.
55. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
56. Felix Pie, Cubs
57. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
58. Matt Diaz, Braves
59. Austin Kearns, Nationals
60. Luke Scott, Orioles
61. Ryan Church, Mets
62. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
63. Nate McLouth, Pirates
NOTE: Let him play and he's a Byrnes type.
64. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
65. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
66. Corey Patterson, Reds
67. Jason Kubel, Twins
68. Carlos Gomez, Twins
69. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
70. Travis Buck, Athletics
71. Gary Matthews, Angels
72. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
NOTE: No logical excuse for 2007.
73. Jay Bruce, Reds
74. Jonny Gomes, Rays
75. Garret Anderson, Angels
76. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
77. Milton Bradley, Rangers
78. Jack Cust, Athletics
79. Scott Hairston, Padres
NOTE: Has 25-homer upside if he lands the gig.
80. Cameron Maybin, Marlins
81. Wily Mo Pena, Nationals
82. Randy Winn, Giants
83. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
84. Franklin Gutierrez, Indians
85. *Moises Alou, Mets
86. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
87. Elijah Dukes, Nationals
NOTE: Being mentored by Barry Larkin.
88. Jacque Jones, Tigers
89. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
90. Cliff Floyd, Rays
91. Joey Gathright, Royals
92. Steven Pearce, Pirates
93. Ryan Freel, Reds
94. Dave Roberts, Giants
95. Brian Giles, Padres
96. *Jim Edmonds, Padres
97. Barry Bonds, Free Agent
98. Jayson Werth, Phillies
99. David Dellucci, Indians
100. Jerry Owens, White Sox
101. Xavier Nady, Pirates
102. Brad Wilkerson, Mariners
103. Kenny Lofton, Free Agent
104. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
105. Emil Brown, Athletics
106. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
107. Reggie Willits, Angels
108. *Rocco Baldelli, Rays

Catcher
1. Victor Martinez, Indians
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Brian McCann, Braves
NOTE: Best value of the Top 5.
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Jorge Posada, Yankees
6. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
NOTE: Best value of the second tier.
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
9. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
10. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers
11. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
12. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
13. Geovany Soto, Cubs
14. Ronny Paulino, Pirates
15. J.R. Towles, Astros
NOTE: Decent bat, sneaky speed.
16. Mike Napoli, Angels
17. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
18. Dioner Navarro, Rays
19. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
20. Josh Bard, Padres
21. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
22. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
23. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
24. Dave Ross, Reds
25. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
26. Paul Lo Duca, Nationals
27. John Buck, Royals
NOTE: This is the now-or-never season.
28. Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays
29. Miguel Olivo, Royals
30. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
31. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
32. Johnny Estrada, Nationals
33. Brian Schneider, Mets
34. Jason Kendall, Brewers
35. Gerald Laird, Rangers
36. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
37. Michael Barrett, Padres

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).

* = check status

Last Updated: 3/18
Next Update: 3/25

Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
3. Erik Bedard, Mariners
4. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
5. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
6. Cole Hamels, Phillies
7. Justin Verlander, Tigers
8. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
9. *Josh Beckett, Red Sox
10. Aaron Harang, Reds
11. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
12. John Maine, Mets
NOTE: Consider last year the floor.
13. Tim Lincecum, Giants
14. John Smoltz, Braves
15. Rich Hill, Cubs
16. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
17. Roy Oswalt, Astros
18. *John Lackey, Angels
NOTE: He's out for April.
19. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
20. James Shields, Rays
21. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
22. Ian Snell, Pirates
23. Fausto Carmona, Indians
24. Chris Young, Padres
25. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
26. *Scott Kazmir, Rays
27. Matt Cain, Giants
NOTE: Could be steal of draft.
28. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
29. Pedro Martinez, Mets
30. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
31. Ted Lilly, Cubs
32. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
33. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
34. Brad Penny, Dodgers
35. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
36. Jered Weaver, Angels
NOTE: Fly-baller but gets it done.
37. Tim Hudson, Braves
38. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
39. Jeff Francis, Rockies
40. Brett Myers, Phillies
41. *Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
42. Ben Sheets, Brewers
43. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
NOTE: Not an ace but good middle-staff material.
44. Oliver Perez, Mets
45. Zack Greinke, Royals
46. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
47. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
48. Phil Hughes, Yankees
49. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
50. Gil Meche, Royals
51. Scott Baker, Twins
NOTE: Not a dominator but some strikeout upside.
52. Kelvim Escobar, Angels
53. Joe Blanton, Athletics
54. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
55. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
56. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
57. Jon Garland, Angels
NOTE: Some upside in new city.
58. Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
59. Matt Garza, Rays
60. Boof Bonser, Twins
61. Greg Maddux, Padres
62. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
63. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
NOTE: This isn't your father's Coors Field.
64. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
65. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
66. Kevin Slowey, Twins
67. Rich Harden, Athletics
68. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
69. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
70. Jake Westbrook, Indians
71. Shawn Hill, Senators
72. Randy Wolf, Padres
73. Ian Kennedy, Yankees
74. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
NOTE: Solid at home, still a level to climb.
75. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
76. Franklin Morales, Rockies
77. Kevin Correia, Giants
NOTE: Quietly effective down the stretch.
78. Scott Olsen, Marlins
79. Doug Davis, Diamondbacks
80. Mark Prior, Padres
81. Brian Bannister, Royals
82. Jon Lester, Red Sox
83. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
NOTE: Electric stuff but no command yet.
84. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
85. Nate Robertson, Tigers
86. Tim Redding, Senators
87. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
88. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
89. Tom Glavine, Braves
90. Barry Zito, Giants
NOTE: Terrible spring, overrated to begin with.
91. *Chad Gaudin, Athletics
92. Andrew Miller, Marlins
93. Homer Bailey, Reds
94. Chris Sampson, Astros
95. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
96. John Danks, White Sox
97. Joel Pineiro, Cardinals
98. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
99. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
100. David Bush, Brewers
101. Edinson Volquez, Reds
NOTE: Making impression in camp.
102. Garrett Olson, Orioles
103. Anthony Reyes, Cardinals
104. Brandon Backe, Astros
105. Shawn Chacon, Astros
106. Joe Saunders, Angels
107. Jason Bergmann, Senators
108. Adam Loewen, Orioles
109. Orlando Hernandez, Mets
110. Paul Maholm, Pirates
111. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
112. Cliff Lee, Indians
113. Miguel Batista, Mariners
114. Jon Lieber, Cubs
115. Jeremy Affeldt, Reds
116. Jose Contreras, White Sox
117. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
NOTE: Misplaced in rotation.
118. Ervin Santana, Angels
119. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
120. Aaron Laffey, Indians
121. Bartolo Colon, Red Sox
122. Zach Duke, Pirates
123. Carlos Silva, Mariners
124. John Patterson, Senators
125. Aaron Cook, Rockies
126. *Sergio Mitre, Marlins
127. Dana Eveland, Athletics
NOTE: Solid bet to get a spot.
128. *Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
NOTE: Mid-season return possible; think about 2009.
129. *Curt Schilling, Red Sox
130. Justin Germano, Padres
131. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
132. *Chris Capuano, Brewers
133. *Chuck James, Braves
134. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
135. Matt Chico, Senators
136. Odalis Perez, Senators
137. Edwin Jackson, Rays
138. Jason Jennings, Rangers
139. Adam Eaton, Phillies
140. Kason Gabbard, Rangers
141. Josh Fogg, Reds
142. Manny Parra, Brewers
143. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
144. Brandon McCarthy, Rangers
145. Brett Tomko, Royals
146. Matt Belisle, Reds
147. Livan Hernandez, Twins
148. Mark Mulder, Cardinals
149. Jason Schmidt, Dodgers
150. Paul Byrd, Indians
NOTE: Gobbles innings, but no upside.
151. Jason Marquis, Cubs
152. Jeff Weaver, Free Agent
153. Mike Mussina, Yankees
154. Claudio Vargas, Brewers
155. Jo-Jo Reyes, Braves
156. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
157. Sean Marshall, Cubs
158. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
159. Kevin Millwood, Rangers
160. *Noah Lowry, Giants
161. Matt Clement, Cardinals
162. John Lannan, Senators
163. Brian Burres, Orioles
164. Jorge de la Rosa, Royals
165. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
166. Gustavo Chacin, Blue Jays
167. Mark Hendrickson, Marlins
168. Jason Hirsh, Rockies
169. David Wells, Free Agent
170. Josh Towers, Rockies
171. Braden Looper, Cardinals
172. Matt Morris, Pirates

Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. J.J. Putz, Mariners
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
4. Billy Wagner, Mets
5. Joe Nathan, Twins
NOTE: Don't let team's construction scare you.
6. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
7. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
8. Jose Valverde, Astros
9. Matt Capps, Pirates
10. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
11. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
NOTE: Safer play than most realize.
12. Francisco Cordero, Reds
13. Joakim Soria, Royals
NOTE: Good values in small markets.
14. Huston Street, Athletics
15. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
16. *Brad Lidge, Phillies
17. Todd Jones, Tigers
18. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
19. Chad Cordero, Senators
20. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
21. Joe Borowski, Indians
22. Brian Wilson, Giants
NOTE: Bochy has already endorsed him.
23. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
24. George Sherrill, Orioles
NOTE: A steal in many public leagues.
25. Eric Gagne, Brewers
26. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
27. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
28. Troy Percival, Rays
29. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
30. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
31. Kerry Wood, Cubs
32. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
33. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
34. Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays
35. Heath Bell, Padres
NOTE: Mandatory insurance for Hoffman owners.
36. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
37. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
38. Tom Gordon, Phillies
39. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
40. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
41. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
42. Pat Neshek, Twins
43. David Riske, Brewers
44. Dan Wheeler, Rays
NOTE: Percival is no sure thing.
45. Luis Ayala, Senators
46. Bob Howry, Cubs
47. Jamie Walker, Orioles
48. Alan Embree, Athletics
49. Aaron Heilman, Mets
50. Al Reyes, Rays
51. Jon Rauch, Senators
52. Scot Shields, Angels
53. Derrick Turnbow, Brewers
54. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
55. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
56. Peter Moylan, Braves
NOTE: Sleeper value if Soriano stumbles.
57. James Hoey, Orioles
58. Brad Hennessey, Giants
59. Damaso Marte, Pirates
60. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
61. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
62. Chad Bradford, Orioles
63. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
64. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
NOTE: Looks headed for rotation spot.
65. Pedro Feliciano, Mets
66. Cla Meredith, Padres
67. Matt Guerrier, Twins
68. Taylor Tankersley, Marlins
69. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
70. Mike Wuertz, Cubs
71. Joel Peralta, Royals
72. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
73. Chris Schroder, Senators
74. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
75. Jensen Lewis, Indians
76. Manny Delcarmen, Red Sox
77. Jesse Crain, Twins
78. Masahide Kobayashi, Indians
79. Patrick Misch, Giants
80. Julian Tavarez, Red Sox
81. *Fernando Rodney, Tigers
82. Rafael Perez, Indians
83. Bill Bray, Reds
84. Keith Foulke, Athletics
85. Brandon League, Blue Jays
86. Ryan Madson, Phillies
87. David Weathers, Reds
88. Byung-Hyun Kim, Pirates
89. *Casey Janssen, Blue Jays

By David Ferris

3/14/08

March Madness might be more of a basketball term, but it also applies to how mispriced some of the current American League ballplayers are at the draft table. Here’s our current shopping guide, guaranteed to keep you off the bubble and out of trouble.

Batters

BUY

Luke Scott, OF, Orioles – He’s finally getting a full-time gig, and while Camden Yards isn’t the run-scoring paradise it’s made out to be, it’s still a pretty easy place to knock one over the wall. Scott’s an even-money shot to get 25 homers, and if everything clicks you’ve got a chance at 30. Best of all, you won’t need to outbid half of the room to land Scott for the back of your outfield.

Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers – His swing and his shoulder looked just fine in September, when most weren’t paying attention. I still like the park and pedigree here, and a discount doesn’t hurt. Blalock won’t cost much more than $10, but he’s ready to be a $20 asset again.

SELL

Casey Blake, 3B, Indians – He spent the playoffs parked at the bottom of the order, and that’s the plan for 2008 as well. Blake will do well merely to keep his job as the season goes along; Cleveland has a deep offense and an intriguing bench, and once the bat speed starts fading in the mid 30s, the tide doesn’t reserve course.

Richie Sexson, 1B, Mariners – Sure he was plenty unlucky on balls in play last year, but who’s at fault when Sexson swings and misses? I saw him beat on too many inside heaters last year to get tingly about a rebound.

HOLD

Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels – He’s got the stroke to win a batting title a few years down the road, and while the power hasn’t developed yet, the Angels are prepared to give him free reign on the bases. With the expectation that Kendrick can tack on 15-20 bags to that pretty average, let’s bid the extra buck.

Pitchers

BUY

Dustin McGowan, SP, Blue Jays – He’s the No. 3 arm for the Jays entering the year, but don’t be surprised if he’s considered the staff ace by the end of the season. McGowan got bit by the gopher ball a bit in the second half of 2007, but he also improved in every other key column at the same time (more strikeouts, less walks), and we’ve always seen No. 1 potential from this arm. Go get him; this is the last year the sticker price won’t be expensive.

George Sherrill, RP, Orioles – His stuff is merely good, not dominant, but the competition in the Baltimore bullpen leaves me cold. Jamie Walker? The Orioles know he’s a left specialist. James Hoey? Young, nicked up and unproven. Let’s set the over/under for Sherrill saves at 20, which means we’ll be in the bidding later than most.

SELL

Chien-Ming Wang, SP, Yankees – He’s plenty comfortable in Yankee Stadium, but his power sinker doesn’t always travel well; Wang’s career ERA on the road is a messy 4.62. Throw in the modest strikeout rate and it’s enough to get smart 5x5 owners off the scent. Throw his name out early, then watch your Tri-State competitors slide into overbid mode.

HOLD

Joe Borowski, RP, Indians – His stuff isn’t anywhere near dominant and you’ll want to keep that ERA and ratio away from the kids, but if Eric Wedge keeps giving him the ball in the ninth inning, who cares? They don’t ask how in this game, they ask how many, and it matters not if fantasy owners want to take Borowski’s job away tomorrow – Cleveland has no intention of doing so. If you go for your saves on a budget, Borowski makes a lot of sense.