Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

The most important pre-draft mission for any fantasy player is to catch up on faces in new places. New zip codes often mean new roles in significantly different playing environments. That causes us to reassess likely value and thus what we’ll pay in our drafts and auctions come March.

Here we look at players on new teams in the NL and whether to expect more or less return on investment relative to 2007.

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Brad Lidge, P, Phillies: This year, he’s got a vote of confidence that actually might mean something. Lidge can strike out 12 guys per nine innings and totally dominate. Of course, he can flake out and give up four runs any outing, too. But that’s true of almost all closers. Park effects matter less for guys who miss bats. (Note: Lidge will miss three to six weeks after having surgery Monday on his right knee.)

Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs: Will he bat second, third or fifth? I’d guess second, as his on-base percentage should most easily translate to the majors. His Japanese power needs to be discounted to the high teens in the U.S. Don’t bid expecting steals, but hope for low double digits. If things break perfectly, Fukudome will put up numbers similar to Baltimore’s Nick Markakis last year.

Andruw Jones, OF, Dodgers: He’s a cancer for your team batting average, but bad luck exacerbated things last year. His average on balls of play should be .260, not .240 – even with all those flyballs. The power decline was shocking last year: from more than 20 percent homers on flyballs to 13 percent (just over league average). I’ll bet that was a fluke, too.

Eric Gagne, P, Brewers: He’s got a lot of fleas; but those are the closers you win with in fantasy baseball. Hope he keeps them this spring with some ineffective, but healthy outings. Then, buy low.

Johan Santana, P, Mets: His ERA should have been about 2.87 last year with some average luck/defense. That’s his floor on the Mets. The expectation is about 2.50 and I’ll go an extra buck or two hoping for an ERA in the very low 2.00s. Facing the pitcher two or three times per game should raise his K total to a major-league leading 270.

Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: There’s upside here, especially given the new stadium in Washington, which is certain to be more hitter-friendly. A 20/20 season would not shock me. He’s not a tall guy, though, and thus lacks leverage on his swing. He compensates with vicious cuts, which curtail batting average.

Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals: The only thing more scary than Dukes’ rap sheet is the idea of him sitting on the reserve roster of the biggest shark in your home league. An AL East scout told me this winter that Dukes has more talent than any player in baseball.

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Danny Haren, P, Diamondbacks: He goes from a park that depressed scoring by 17 percent (Oakland’s McAfee Stadium) to one that boosted it by about 11 percent. Does that wipe out expected gains from moving to the NL, where teams scored about three percent less runs? At a minimum. Even if you assume Haren pitches exactly like he did for the A’s in the American League last year, someone else will surely pay more.

Tom Glavine, P, Braves: He’s a dollar guy in the end game in most mixed leagues. Glavine has been pitching without stuff for so long that he doesn’t need much to win 13 games with an ERA in the low 4.00s.

Ryan Church, OF, Mets: He’s a middling guy in a good lineup. But with little speed and just marginal power, Church should be no more than a fifth outfielder in most mixed formats.

Mark Prior, P, Padres: At some point, the price gets so low that the player is almost all upside. Prior is trading like a penny stock in lots of mixed leagues. You’re going to throw a few bucks away on someone, why not on a guy who might be someone else’s lottery ticket.

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Jim Edmonds, OF, Padres: The clowns have taken off the makeup. The animals are back in their cages. The circus trucks are backing up and heading out of town. It’s time for Jim to call it a career and go home.

Paul Lo Duca, C, Nationals: He’s living proof that steroids don’t help you hit homers. Now Lo Duca’s average is in downward spiral given his age and high catching mileage.

Jose Valverde, P, Astros: Houston’s new closer is neither as good as he was last year for Arizona nor as bad as he was in 2006. When his rate of hits allowed on balls of play normalizes to about 30 percent (it was 26 percent last year, 36 percent in 2006), he’ll be a middling closer given that high walk rate.

Francisco Cordero, P, Reds: He goes from about a neutral park to one that allowed 9 percent more runs than average. But he was a little unlucky last year in allowing runs. Still, can he maintain the 50-percent cut in his walk rate from his half season with the Brewers in ’06? He also improved his K-rate by 30 percent and was too old (32) for such a transformation.

Andrew Miller, P, Marlins: Let someone else speculate on rookie hurlers. The best policy is to expect them to take their lumps, as do even most of the ones that ultimately turn out great. If you see some signs of domination in the K department, buy low in-season after a bad outing.

Miguel Tejada, SS, Astros: He’s sort of Derek Jeter without the speed now. His power has been average-to-slightly above since 2005 when measured by percentage of fly balls that clear the wall. And he’s become more ground-ball prone three straight years.

Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Dodgers: The Japanese imports who pitch in relief tend to work out. Those who start like Kuroda need to be steeply discounted until a couple of guys buck that trend.

Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants: Park Factors 101: Rowand leaves Philly, where righty hitters like him smacked 45 percent more homers than in the average park. His new digs in San Francisco depressed them by 26 percent. Rowand hit 17 homers in Philly last year, 10 on the road. Expect seven at home and 10 on the road this year. In other words: fifth fantasy outfielder.

Troy Glaus, 3B, Cardinals: The Cardinals traded one injury risk (Scott Rolen) for another, who at least should be on speaking terms with the manager. Glaus leaves a great hitters park for a poor one. A healthy Glaus hits 25 to 30 homers, tops, in St. Louis. Health is far from a guarantee.

Tad Iguchi, 2B, Padres: Forget about any plus-power in Petco. No manager attempted fewer steals last year than Bud Black. Nothing of value is left for Iguchi owners.

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