Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Rob Steingall

In the middle or late rounds of mixed league drafts, owners must decide whether to draft a veteran player on the decline who may give you league average numbers or instead opt for a promising rookie.

Here’s the lowdown on top NL rookies and where you can expect to see them drafted in 12 team mixed formats. Average draft placement (ADP) data for mixed leagues comes courtesy of our friends at mockdraftcentral.com.

Jay Bruce, OF, Reds (ADP: 287): In terms of prospect hype, Jay Bruce is this year’s Alex Gordon. He tore through the minors in 2007, going from High A to AAA on his way to being named Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America. Bruce hits for average (.319 in 521 ABs), gets on base (.375 OBP) and will steal some bases given the opportunity (8 SB in ‘07, 19 SB in ‘06). If he wins the center field job this spring, expect .285 with 25 homers and 15 steals in the NL’s fourth most hitter-friendly park. He’s the sexy pick for NL Rookie of the Year, and is a worthwhile selection in the late rounds.

Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals (ADP: 314): With the trade of Jim Edmonds, the road has been paved for Rasmus to start in center for the Cards this spring. Still raw as a prospect, Rasmus could help owners similar to how Arizona’s Chris Young did in ‘07. Rasmus possesses plus power (29 HRs in AA last season), a solid ability to get on base (.381 OBP) and an element of speed (18 steals) that has been lacking in St. Louis for years. He’s a batting average risk, but still a worthwhile grab very late given his skill set.

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (ADP: 285): If you’re looking for a player flying way under the fantasy radar this spring, Votto is your man. He raked when he got his cup of coffee last September (.321/4/17 in 84 ABs) -- numbers right in line with his minor league stats. He also offers deceptive speed – averaging 20 stolen bases the past two years in the minors. That’s a nice speed boost from a fantasy corner slot. It’s this Red, not Bruce, who is my pick for NL Rookie of the Year. If he slides to his ADP, he’s a huge bargain.

Homer Bailey, P, Reds (ADP: 309): Yes, the Reds have a very good farm system. Bailey was considered the best of all coming into ‘07, but injuries derailed his season and he was never able to recover. Bailey is basically Phil Hughes, with a little less control, but a little better pure stuff. If he beats out fellow prospect Johnny Cueto for the fifth starter job, expect 11 wins with a 3.85 ERA, with 140 strikeouts in around 150 innings of work. Expect the Reds to play it safe with his workload. Still, he’s a great value this late in your draft.

Geovany Soto, C, Cubs (ADP: 163): Never much of a prospect until last year, Soto burst on to the scene with a .353/26/109 line at AAA Iowa that earned him a call-up just in time for the playoffs. He went on to win the starting job in the postseason, setting himself up for a starting job in 2008. I predict numbers similar to those Michael Barrett posted as Cubs catcher: .280 with 15-20 homers and about 60-70 RBIs. Soto is going as early as Round 10 in some drafts (eighth among catchers). If you don’t want to use an early pick on an “elite” catcher, Soto is the guy to grab around the 10th round.

Also keep an eye on:

JR Towles – Houston Astros C
Franklin Morales – Colorado Rockies SP
Andy LaRoche – Los Angeles Dodgers 3B
Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins OF
Chase Headley – San Diego Padres 3B/OF

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