Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Rob Steingall

In the middle or late rounds of mixed-league drafts, owners must decide whether to draft a veteran player on the decline who may give you league-average numbers, or instead opt for a promising rookie.

Here’s the lowdown on top AL rookies and where you can expect to see them drafted in 12-team mixed formats. Average draft placement (ADP) data for mixed leagues comes courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com.

Clay Buchholz, P, Red Sox (Average Draft Placement: 160): That’s a bargain. Anyone who saw his no-hitter last year knows how positively filthy his stuff is. Buchholz has a plus fastball, knee-buckling curve and above average change that make batters look totally befuddled at the plate. With Curt Schilling out until the All-Star Break with a shoulder injury (and possibly the season), Buchholz gets his shot at being a key member of the rotation for the best team in baseball. Before his call-up, he posted a 2.44 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 171/35 K/BB in 125.3 IP during his time in the upper minors. So 15 wins, 170 strikeouts with an ERA around 4.00 are certainly within reach.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox (ADP: 126): Ellsbury showed his true value last October, helping the Red Sox march through the postseason. He’s a classic leadoff hitter, making outstanding contact (89-percent contact rate), getting on base (.394 OBP in 116 ABs) and stealing bags at will (50 SB total in the majors and minors). The only thing standing in his way right now is Coco Crisp, bound to vulture ABs from him if he isn’t sent packing soon. If you become an Ellsbury owner, hope for one of this year’s crop of bum center fielders to tank, making Crisp a valuable trade target. Barring a Crisp trade, Round 10 is too early for a player battling for playing time.

Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays (ADP: 243): If you were one of the people who missed the boat on Ryan Braun in ‘07, you’ve got a chance to make things right this year by drafting Longoria. He’s an absolute masher who produced a .292/26/90 line in 485 ABs during his time at AA and AAA last season. He also drew 73 walks, showing his selective batting eye and ability to get on base. With the wispy-hitting Akinori Iwamura moving over to second base this year, Longoria is primed to put up monster numbers in a very underrated Rays lineup. Given 500 ABs, he could reach 30 homers and 100 RBI while hitting .280 – a great value in Round 20.

Joba Chamberlain, P, Yankees (ADP: 148): “In Joba We Trust” applies to many fantasy owners this spring, too. Chamberlain is legit, with a fastball in the high 90s that tops out at 100, a slider that falls off the table and an above-average curveball and changeup no big league hitter has yet seen. Look at his ’07 numbers: 24 IP, 34/6 K/BB, 0.38 ERA as a reliever with the Yankees; 2.45 ERA, 135/27 K/BB in 88.1 innings primarily as a starter in the minors. Rumors have him starting in the bullpen this season, pushing his draft value down. He won’t exceed 150 IP this year, but could provide a playoff push for fantasy owners if in the rotation by July. But Round 12 is a little early for a set-up guy with no guarantee of being moved into the rotation.

Adam Jones, OF, Orioles (ADP: 303): Although not technically considered a rookie any longer (over the rookie minimum by nine ABs), Jones is the total package of power and speed -- a true five-tool player. He produced a .314/25/84 line last year in AAA, and was slated to start in right field for Seattle before coming over to Baltimore in the Erik Bedard trade. He’ll be the Opening Day center fielder with the O’s. Anticipate a spike in stolen-base totals this season (21/32 in SB attempts during his two seasons in AAA), with Baltimore doing everything it can to manufacture runs. Going very late or even undrafted, Jones’ upside is worth a flyer.

Also keep an eye on:

Daric Barton – Oakland A’s 1B
Ian Kennedy – New York Yankees SP
Adam Miller – Cleveland Indians SP
Carlos Gomez – Minnesota Twins OF
Brandon Wood – Los Angeles Angels SS/3B

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