Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

The most important pre-draft mission for any fantasy player is to catch up on faces in new places. New zip codes often mean new roles in significantly different playing environments. That causes us to reassess likely value and thus what we’ll pay in our drafts and auctions come March.

Here we look at players on new teams in the AL and whether to expect more or less return on investment relative to 2007.

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Miguel Cabrera, OF, Tigers: He’s Manny Ramirez in his prime. In other words, one of the handful of top righty hitters ever, now and for the foreseeable future. His most similar hitters through age 24 (according to BaseballReference.com): Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Orlando Cepeda. There’s a chance he eats himself out of the league one day, but no worries about that now. His indifferent fielding is of no fantasy consequence.

Luke Scott, OF, Orioles: He’s a hitter with promise (over a .500 slugging percentage two straight years) who is going to a park neutral for lefty power. But he’ll turn 30 this year, so there’s not room for growth. Scott hit lefties about as well as righties last year, but was mostly platooned. He’ll play almost every day for the O’s and should be a solid value in every format.

Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins: Bill James says .271/.327/.392 in the Bill James Handbook. That gets him 500 at-bats in Minnesota. Of course, he could press and slump early and get sent down to AAA for more seasoning. There’s 50-steal upside here (former Mets teammates say he’s faster than Jose Reyes). Pay for 30 bags and you probably get him almost everywhere.

Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays: His shoulder is surgically repaired. He’s also going from a poor hitter’s park to a great one. That alone should increase his homer total by 5-to-7. I’d worry that he’ll wear down in the second half. But you’ll get some great stats in the meantime and be able to sell at a nifty profit before then.

John Garland, P, Angels: Though it bucked the trend last year, Angel Stadium has played as slight pitcher’s park in suppressing runs while U.S. Cellular, where Garland had toiled, increases it by 8 percent. The expectation should be a 10-percent decrease in ERA, as his bullpen will be a lot better, too. Expect an ERA in the high 3.00s, well worth rostering considering the Angels will help Garland win about 15 games.

Nick Swisher, OF, White Sox: He hit 8 homers at home and 14 on the road last year. This year, expect at least 20 at home and 35 homers overall. He’s also in his age 27 season, which increases the chances for a career year and, in his new friendly home digs, the possibility of 40 bombs.

Masahide Kobayashi, P, Indians: Joe Borowski piled up saves last year, but showed little stuff (5.07 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Expect him to falter at some point in the first half and for the Indians to turn to Kobayashi, who shined in the closer’s role in Japan. These Japanese closers have mostly translated very nicely.

Erik Bedard, P, Mariners: The move to Seattle makes him more attractive. He goes to a pitcher’s park and trades six starts against the Red Sox and Yanks for six against the Rangers and A’s. Don’t bid expecting more than 200 innings though.

George Sherrill, P, Orioles: We’ve profiled Adam Jones in our rookies’ piece. But Sherrill is the sneaky get here, as he’ll likely close for the Orioles given that Chris Ray and Danys Baez won’t pitch in ’08. Sherrill is simply a better and more dominant hurler (10.5 Ks per nine innings) than fellow lefty Jamie Walker, who is 36. Sherrill also had no problem with righties in ’07.

Carlos Silva, P, Mariners: His K-rate spiked last year to almost acceptable levels. Really though, with Silva’s great control, anything more than four Ks per nine innings is going to give you league-average results. Safeco Field earns its name as a safe place to park fantasy innings. Yes, the Mariners have very questionable outfield defense but, like Bedard, Silva is a groundball-prone pitcher.

Troy Percival, P, Rays: I like closers with fleas because they’re cheap and because it’s pretty easy to get three outs with a two- or three-run lead. But Percival really pushes the envelope for me. He’s the leader in the clubhouse in the battle for Rays saves.
But he could hang his spikes back up before spring training ends. Get him only if the price is right -- meaning a Sherrill-type of price.

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Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers: Great talent and great power in a homer- friendly environment. He’ll start, too. But the huge caveat is that he’s had a long history of substance abuse and other off-field problems and thus is one bad day away from being banished again from baseball. Fantasy owners should never be too optimistic about human nature. Root for the person; be wary of the player.

Orlando Cabrera, SS, White Sox: He’s at the age where we start to worry about a decline in steals. But he’s going to Chicago, where Ozzie Guillen wants to manufacture runs. Still, Mike Scioscia ran more than any AL manager, so we can’t give Cabrera more steals after the move from Anaheim; .280-10-65-20 sounds reasonable.

Torii Hunter, OF, Angels: He was signed to bat cleanup behind Vlad Guerrero. That’s a sweet place to be. Garret Anderson is still capable of protecting Hunter in the five hole. At age 32, we expect a little more power and lots less speed. But the Angels like to run. So .280-30-115-15 sounds reasonable.

Brendan Harris, 2B, Twins: He’s got a little upside if you punt on one of your middle-infield spots. Harris has moderate pop (.434 slugging with 35 doubles) and won’t get you anywhere in steals. But he did look very professional at the plate last year, despite his poor track record heading into ’07.

Jason Bartlett, SS, Rays: He’s the best fielding shortstop in the AL, replacing Harris, who was the worst. All Rays starters get a boost as a result. Bartlett needs to steal 25 bases to have any value as a hitter, as his power is strictly pop-gun. But he was 23-for-26 last year and the Rays should be aggressive.

Delmon Young, OF, Twins: He’s not nearly as good yet as everyone thought he’d be. But guys who do anything of note at Young’s age very often end up being great. For 2008, though, Young is a guy who is not going to help much in the counting categories and won’t hit .300 given his poor plate discipline (24 non-intentional walks in 670-plus plate appearances last year).

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Dontrelle Willis, P, Tigers: He was in a better pitching park last year, threw horribly there (5.28 ERA) and also pitched terribly on the road. Now he’s in the tougher league. Think Steve Avery, another lefty who looked all world at first before quickly flaming out.

Edgar Renteria, SS, Tigers: Carlos Guillen is now the first baseman. Renteria will bat seventh in a potent Tigers’ lineup. But that placement hurts him, as does hitting ahead of Jacque Jones, who scares no one. Renteria would make a better No. 2 hitter than Placido Polanco, but don’t expect a change because Polanco can’t plausibly hit anywhere else.

Matt Garza, P, Rays: The Rays have a decent lineup and, this year, an acceptable defense. The bullpen is still a major question mark. Garza didn’t dominate as expected in Triple A last year, but held his own as a Twin. I think he’ll make a fine No. 3 starter one day. But that’s not enough upside to speculate on while he’s still learning the ropes.

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