Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

A lucky third of NFL fans get to look forward to some measure of playoff football, while the rest seek plans to improve their teams' lots through free agency and the draft.

Before utilizing the most important single stat in all of professional team sports to forecast the Wild Card slate, let's quickly preview the top potential free agents and rookies of 2008. Our focus is limited to offensive skill players.

Cleveland's Derek Anderson is a restricted free agent, and the Browns reportedly will tender him enough money to require first- and third-round draft picks as compensation. Given the the promise that Anderson has shown with his varied skill set, combined with the bust rate on first-rounders, that price is a bargain.

The top unrestricted free agents at QB are Daunte Culpepper (Raiders), Josh McCown (Raiders) and Rex Grossman (Bears).

RB Michael Turner is unrestricted unless the Chargers "franchise" him by paying him the average of what the five highest-paid backs earn. Most likely, he gets his fortune from a new team within minutes of the midnight start to the free-agent signing period. Jamal Lewis (Browns), Julius Jones (Cowboys) and Justin Fargas (Raiders) are the other unrestricted free agent backs. Fargas' likely departure could open the door for Michael Bush in Oakland.

Record-breaking Randy Moss is the top unrestricted free-agent receiver. The Patriots will need to back up the Brink's truck to keep him, especially if he gets his Super Bowl ring. Top WR options slotted well below Moss are Patrick Crayton (Cowboys) and Bernard Berrian (Bears).

Rookies most likely to light up NFL scoreboards are Arkansas RB Darren McFadden, 6-foot-6 WR James Hardy (Indiana) and Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart. The last rookie QB to tilt NFL scoreboards was Dan Marino. Backs and receivers taken well after the top prospects will shine as always. Playing time remains the key factor in assessing rookie production.

The KISS (keep it simple, stupid) method of forecasting playoff football is to look at each team's net yards per pass attempt (YPA). This subtracts what they allow per pass from what they gain, including sack yards in both totals. Typically, a net-YPA of plus-one yard makes you a playoff caliber team; plus-two yards a Super Bowl contender.

The first game Saturday has the Redskins traveling to Seattle. Washington has a slightly stronger net-YPA than the Seahawks, though both are under our playoff-worthy minimum (though just barely for the Redskins). Given that home field is typically worth three points, net-YPA forecasts a razor-thin, overtime-type game to kick-off our second season.

The conventional wisdom is that the tough Jaguars will travel well and give the Steelers all they can handle. But net-YPA says Pittsburgh by at least a touchdown, thanks to their vastly superior (No. 1 overall) pass defense.

The Giants are the only playoff team that's given up more yards per pass then they've gained. The Bucs are plus-1.3. This indicates a double-digit Tampa Bay win. But the Giants shocked me Saturday night.

The Chargers are favored by almost double digits over the Titans, yet net-YPA says this game is going down to the wire, with San Diego squeaking by, courtesy of their home field.

Now let's look at some individual performers this weekend.

Buy

Bucs passing game: Jeff Garcia should have no trouble hooking up with Joey Galloway (NFL yards-per-catch leader) versus the Giants middling secondary. New York's pass rush is feast or famine.

Najeh Davenport, RB, Steelers: He ran better than Willie Parker all year and faces a Jaguars defense 17th in yards allowed per rush. He'll also make plays as a receiver.

Hold

Jaguars running game: Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew must exploit the Steelers' run defense, just 14th in the NFL on a per-carry basis.

Sell

David Garrard, QB, Jaguars: It's strength versus strength here. But I have more belief in the Steelers' pass defense and vexing blitz schemes than in Garrard starting his first playoff game.

Eli Manning, QB, Giants: Don't buy the four TD passes last week. He's 28th in YPA among QBs. The Bucs are third-best defensively in that category.

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: The Titans' defense is fourth in YPA allowed and interception rate. LaDainian Tomlinson must again carry the Chargers.

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