Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Despite 40 years of data that shows that passing the ball more efficiently than your opponent leads directly to victory, NFL head coaches today seem as eager to run as their iconic hero, Vince Lombardi.

Though the power sweep was Lombardi's signature play, his famous first Super Bowl championship team finished No. 1 in yards per pass attempt. Running efficiency? Those 1966 Packers were 13th (of 15 NFL teams) in yards per rush.

You'd think NFL coaches wouldn't need an engraved invitation to pass aggressively, given that virtually every rule change in the intervening period has strongly favored the passing game. Yet even in this season when the Patriots are setting the league on fire with a passing game only the elements can seem to stop, they continue to prefer to run the ball.

The evidence is clear when we look at first-down playcalling splits. In an effort to ensure that teams aren't influenced to run or pass because of the game situation, we focus on first downs in the first half, and then at first-down calls when the score is tied.

The first thing that jumps out at you when you look at these splits is how run-heavy almost all teams are on first down early in games. Most run on around 60 percent of first-down plays in the first quarter, with the Jets standing out in running a ridiculously conservative 72.4 percent of the time.

Only eight teams pass more than 50 percent of the time on first down in both the first and second quarters: the Lions, Packers, Colts, Saints, Giants, Eagles, Niners and Seahawks. The Seahawks are most extreme, at 60 percent in the first half overall and slightly more than 60 percent in the first quarter (very unusual in today's game).

More teams pass on first down when the score is tied, but still only 14 of 32. And only eight throw more than 53 percent of the time on first down in tie games: the Chargers (67 percent), Lions (67 percent), Saints (61 percent), Seahawks (60 percent), Eagles (59 percent), Giants (59 percent), Cowboys (57 percent) and Patriots (57 percent).

The only teams on both lists are the Lions, Saints, Giants, Eagles and Seahawks. The old saw that coaches cite is that three things can happen when you throw and two of them, sacks and turnovers, are bad. Let's see if those five pass-heavy teams are more prone to error.

Only Detroit is bottom 10 in both sack and interception rates (relative to attempts). The Eagles are bottom 10 in just sack rate. But none of the other teams are ranked poorly in either category and the Saints are actually top 10 in both lowest sack and interception rates. The Seahawks are 4th in interception rate, the Eagles 10th.

So just because these teams pass a lot, doesn't necessarily mean they live dangerously.

Let's now mine these splits to project some individual performers.

Buy

Shaun McDonald, WR, Lions: Roy Williams' injury has made him a productive player again after a very quiet couple of months. When you're a WR on the field on every play for a team that throws two-thirds of the time, you will be a stat compiler.

Deion Branch, WR, Seahawks: He's healthy and again productive on a team with no real option at running back, given that Shaun Alexander is officially washed up.

Drew Brees, QB, Saints: He's been money for many weeks now and gets another dome game this week at home against the Eagles, who are only 14th in YPA allowed even after the takedown of Tony Romo and Terrell Owens.

Hold

Derek Anderson, QB, Browns: Two more potential bad-weather games upcoming (at Cincy, home vs. Niners). But more important, the Browns only want to pass when they have to: 60 percent runs when the score is tied.

Sell

Eli Manning, QB, Giants: He had the most incompletions (34) since Joe Namath had 36 against the Broncos 40 years ago. Now Jeremy Shockey is out (broken leg). The bottom line with Eli: He's average and will never be anything more.

Kevin Jones, RB, Lions: He's had 20 carries in two of the last six games and 23 total the other four games combined.

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