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January 3
By Michael Salfino Another fantasy year in the books. Over, like every year, seemingly before it's really begun. No 17 weeks pass by more quickly than the NFL season does for NFL fans. For this last column, let's review what happened, with an eye toward our 2008 drafts. Upgrade Marc Bulger, QB, Rams: He'll be 31 next year, young for a QB. I think he'll go back to generating 1.5 TD passes per start, like he did from 2002 through-2006. But how many starts he gets will be a function of the upgrades the Rams make to his offensive line. He can't keep getting dumped four times per game like in 2007. Frank Gore, RB, Niners: Averaging 4.2 yards per carry with nothing else on offense is a positive indicator in Gore's portfolio. The five TDs were crippling to his owners. But there's no way the Niners offense can be as bad again in 2008. They need to pay the first- and third-round picks for Derek Anderson given that they pick in Indy's spot (30th overall), having traded their own 2008 first-rounder last year to the Patriots. Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots: I'll take fire for recommending Vince Young. But I was merely a year early on Maroney, who came into his own the last month (368 rushing yards, 4 TDs). Expect more of the same from him in 2008 as Brady scales back to 35 TD passes. Michael Turner, RB, Chargers: He's an unrestricted free agent who will be the top prize when the period begins in late winter. Expect a good team to sign him, as he's a final piece-type of guy. He immediately becomes a top 10 RB given his youth, size and low mileage. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: If Jake Delhomme (8 TD passes in 10 quarters) didn't screw up his elbow, Smith would have had 15 TD catches easy. Delhomme should be healthy by July. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans: Most likely to be next year's Braylon Edwards. He'd have had 15 TD catches this year easy if he didn't sprain his knee. Either QB there (Matt Schaub, Sage Rosenfels) is good enough. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: The offensive environment next year can't be worse, and he had 31 grabs for 428 yards and three scores in December alone. Reggie Williams, WR, Jaguars: He scored 10 TDs in just 38 catches. He should have more catches next year. Finally looked like the Terrell Owens Jr. he was reported to be coming out of college. No Change Vince Young, QB, Titans: Norm Chow has to go, and the Titans need to bring in a coordinator who will allow Young to toil in that Texas shotgun on every snap. Right now, he's playing with zero confidence -- shocking when you see that college championship game versus USC on ESPN Classic. Not everyone needs to be a pocket passer. Willie Parker, RB, Steelers: He's a little guy whom the Steelers now have an excuse to remove on the goal line. The injury isn't a big deal. But he's not young -- he'll be 28 next season. Running backs age like super models. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals: He'll be 29 next year. Yards per rush the last three years: 4.3, 3.8, 2.9. If he has a great offseason and training camp, maybe he splits carries. Ryan Grant, RB, Packers: He reminds me of Roger Craig, except he hasn't proven explosive enough as a receiver. But respect the 5.1 yards per carry and 676 yards in seven games as a starter (five TDs). Downgrade Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: Seasons like Brady's are by definition one-year wonders. Dan Marino managed another 40-TD year. Peyton Manning didn't come close. Put the over/under on Brady at 35 TD passes. Do not think that's the floor, either. Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: He's an unrestricted free agent. Of course, the Patriots can slap the franchise tag on him. Then, they'll likely get the mad/sad Randy that the Raiders suffered through in recent years. The Pats lose their carrot if Moss gets his Super Bowl ring this February. Derek Anderson, QB, Browns: My reading of the tea leaves is that the Browns want to get a couple of draft picks for him as a restricted free agent. That's incredibly stupid. Brady Quinn has proved nothing at the professional level. Most QB prospects go bust. But we don't know where he'll end up. And his receivers are likely to be a couple notches below Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. If he stays, Brady Quinn will likely steal snaps because Anderson will be an unrestricted free agent (no compensation required) in 2009. Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns: A towering talent who can manhandle 90 percent of defensive backs. But receivers need a good QB (ask Steve Smith). What if the Browns turn the reigns over to Brady Quinn and he spits the bit? If that happens, Anderson is likely gone. Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns: He was in a perfect situation last year. But it's all downhill from here given his size, mileage and age (29 next opening day). If the Browns are smart, they'll let him walk as an unrestricted free agent. But most teams are dumb when it comes to ignoring all the warning signs with older backs. In fact, the vast majority apparently can't even define an older back (28 and up). Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals: He threw 27 TD passes this year. What a ride. But what do the Cardinals do with Matt Leinart? My guess is that Warner starts next year on the bench. In fairness to the Cards, Warner is much better statistically than in reality because he makes a lot of dumb throws (17 picks) and can't hold on to the football (12 fumbles). 
January 2
Below are complete fantasy football rankings, considering scoring potential for the ENTIRE playoffs. They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). * = check status The first element of a Fantasy Football Playoff cheat-sheet is a ranking of the teams by "game potential." That list will have significant weight to how the skill players are ordered, and it's just about all you need to construct your kicker and defense ranks. This playoff cheat sheet was constructed on the assumption of a Patriots-Cowboys Super Bowl, and it's also making the assumption that the Titans, Giants and Redskins have long-shots at best to win this weekend. If you expect different results, your personal list will reflect as such. Enjoy the second season, and good luck with your playoff pools. Teams in Order of Game Potential Quarterback Running Back Wide Receiver Tight End Kicker Defense
By Michael Salfino A lucky third of NFL fans get to look forward to some measure of playoff football, while the rest seek plans to improve their teams' lots through free agency and the draft. Before utilizing the most important single stat in all of professional team sports to forecast the Wild Card slate, let's quickly preview the top potential free agents and rookies of 2008. Our focus is limited to offensive skill players. Cleveland's Derek Anderson is a restricted free agent, and the Browns reportedly will tender him enough money to require first- and third-round draft picks as compensation. Given the the promise that Anderson has shown with his varied skill set, combined with the bust rate on first-rounders, that price is a bargain. The top unrestricted free agents at QB are Daunte Culpepper (Raiders), Josh McCown (Raiders) and Rex Grossman (Bears). RB Michael Turner is unrestricted unless the Chargers "franchise" him by paying him the average of what the five highest-paid backs earn. Most likely, he gets his fortune from a new team within minutes of the midnight start to the free-agent signing period. Jamal Lewis (Browns), Julius Jones (Cowboys) and Justin Fargas (Raiders) are the other unrestricted free agent backs. Fargas' likely departure could open the door for Michael Bush in Oakland. Record-breaking Randy Moss is the top unrestricted free-agent receiver. The Patriots will need to back up the Brink's truck to keep him, especially if he gets his Super Bowl ring. Top WR options slotted well below Moss are Patrick Crayton (Cowboys) and Bernard Berrian (Bears). Rookies most likely to light up NFL scoreboards are Arkansas RB Darren McFadden, 6-foot-6 WR James Hardy (Indiana) and Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart. The last rookie QB to tilt NFL scoreboards was Dan Marino. Backs and receivers taken well after the top prospects will shine as always. Playing time remains the key factor in assessing rookie production. The KISS (keep it simple, stupid) method of forecasting playoff football is to look at each team's net yards per pass attempt (YPA). This subtracts what they allow per pass from what they gain, including sack yards in both totals. Typically, a net-YPA of plus-one yard makes you a playoff caliber team; plus-two yards a Super Bowl contender. The first game Saturday has the Redskins traveling to Seattle. Washington has a slightly stronger net-YPA than the Seahawks, though both are under our playoff-worthy minimum (though just barely for the Redskins). Given that home field is typically worth three points, net-YPA forecasts a razor-thin, overtime-type game to kick-off our second season. The conventional wisdom is that the tough Jaguars will travel well and give the Steelers all they can handle. But net-YPA says Pittsburgh by at least a touchdown, thanks to their vastly superior (No. 1 overall) pass defense. The Giants are the only playoff team that's given up more yards per pass then they've gained. The Bucs are plus-1.3. This indicates a double-digit Tampa Bay win. But the Giants shocked me Saturday night. The Chargers are favored by almost double digits over the Titans, yet net-YPA says this game is going down to the wire, with San Diego squeaking by, courtesy of their home field. Now let's look at some individual performers this weekend. Buy Bucs passing game: Jeff Garcia should have no trouble hooking up with Joey Galloway (NFL yards-per-catch leader) versus the Giants middling secondary. New York's pass rush is feast or famine. Najeh Davenport, RB, Steelers: He ran better than Willie Parker all year and faces a Jaguars defense 17th in yards allowed per rush. He'll also make plays as a receiver. Hold Jaguars running game: Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew must exploit the Steelers' run defense, just 14th in the NFL on a per-carry basis. Sell David Garrard, QB, Jaguars: It's strength versus strength here. But I have more belief in the Steelers' pass defense and vexing blitz schemes than in Garrard starting his first playoff game. Eli Manning, QB, Giants: Don't buy the four TD passes last week. He's 28th in YPA among QBs. The Bucs are third-best defensively in that category. Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: The Titans' defense is fourth in YPA allowed and interception rate. LaDainian Tomlinson must again carry the Chargers.
December 31
By David Ferris It's silly that DeAngelo Williams touched the ball just 167 times in Carolina this year, even as he's far and away the most explosive back the team has. Williams finished the year just under 5.0 yards a carry, and he's capable of running the entire playbook, inside and out. Critics point to Williams' problems with pass blocking, but most backs can become adequate in that area with the right instruction. Carolina fans had reason to cringe every time DeShaun Foster handled the ball in 2007 (3.5 yards a carry, seven fumbles). The Saints didn't get much out of Reggie Bush this year, but numbers went up when a pair of ordinary backs followed him. Aaron Stecker, the very definition of a journeyman, turned into a fantasy force for three weeks, and Pierre Thomas, an undrafted rookie, rolled up 226 total yards and a score (plus a conversion rush) at Chicago on Sunday. Bottom line, here's more proof that running backs are fungible in the NFL. While the Detroit Lions have plenty of issues with their offensive line, Jon Kitna didn't do the offense any favors with his jittery presence in the pocket. Footwork tells so much of the story with quarterback play, and Kitna's was a mess for too much of 2007. Clinton Portis was known as a home-run hitter when he came into the league, but he's a much better inside runner than he's generally given credit for. He's also an outstanding reader of blocks, and very capable picking up the blitz. If the Redskins are going to make any noise in the NFC playoffs, Portis must be the focal point of the offense and collect 25 or more touches. Quick Hits: If Tony Gonzalez isn't the best tight end of the last 25 years, I'd like to hear who's better . . . Better to not play and be thought a mediocre quarterback than to get some garbage-time snaps and remove all doubt. Sorry about that, Jim Sorgi . . . Brady Quinn's stint would have looked a lot better had Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow not dropped passes in the end zone . . . Donovan McNabb had a strong final quarter, but I still don't see him back in Philly. The team isn't sold on his durability, and Kevin Kolb should be ready to play in 2008 . . . I wish they made a golf club that was as consistently long and straight as Rob Bironas. He's a weapon on kickoffs and an ace-in-the-hole for any game that comes down to one possession . . . Good luck to the Chiefs, you've got a lot of work to do with Brodie Croyle. The game still looks fast to him, and I don't see enough consistent accuracy . . . Eli Manning was on top of his game in the loss to New England (season-high rating, just one turnover, just one sack), but the assignment gets a lot tougher at the Pirate Ship next week. I'll be very surprised if the Giants are still playing in the Divisional Round . . . It's not every day you see an inked-up kicker talking smack, but there he is, Seattle's Josh Brown . . . Add Scott Linehan to the list of coaches who don't get the 2-pointer. Of course he's got bigger problems in St. Louis, where he's fast losing the approval and attention of the locker room . . . Anyone who owns Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in a keeper league desperately wants to see one more year of Kurt Warner. This offense wasn't able to consistently threaten defenses with intermediate and deep patterns when Matt Leinart was starting, but things got fun when Warner took the controls, even if a handful of mistakes come in the bargain . . . Don't forget Kevin Faulk in your playoff pools, especially if your league scores points-per-reception. He's become a valuable third-down outlet for the Patriots, and he's capable of picking up yards on his own, consistently making unblocked defenders miss.
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