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December 22
By David Ferris Below are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for Last Updated: 12/22/07 * = check status A NOTE ABOUT THE WEATHER: Things could get hairy in Chicago, Buffalo and Cincinnati this week – be wary of the passing games involved there, as the current forecasts do not look encouraging. The reports are more benign for New England, Nashville and Seattle, but give those a look on game-day as well. More than anything, you're looking to avoid wind first, then precipitation second. Quarterback 
By David Ferris Tape em' up and lace em' up – here's our weekly look at the bumps and bruises around the league. Cowboys QB Tony Romo (thumb) had full practices Wednesday and Thursday and should be fine at Carolina on Saturday. Jets QB Kellen Clemens (shoulder/ribs) was limited all week and will probably have to watch Chad Pennington start at Tennessee. Texans QB Matt Schaub (shoulder) will be the No. 3 quarterback at Indy. Sage Rosenfels picks up another start. Ravens QB Troy Smith starts at Seattle, with Kyle Boller coming back slowly from a concussion. Chargers QB Philip Rivers is dealing with a sprained knee but should play through it. Raiders QB Josh McCown will start at Jacksonville with JaMarcus Russell also expected to see the odd series or two. QB Daunte Culpepper isn't expected to dress again this year. Panthers QB Matt Moore will start Saturday against Dallas. Redskins QB Jason Campbell (knee) has an outside chance to play if the club makes the playoffs. In the meantime, it's the Todd Collins show. 49ers QB Shaun Hill is playing through a fractured finger on his throwing hand. He'll make the best of it against Tampa Bay. Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (knee) had a limited day Friday after sitting the two prior sessions. He's still expected to play in Sunday's early game, but give a listen to the team inactives before you make a final call. Steelers RB Willie Parker is out for the year after breaking his leg early in Thursday's win at St. Louis. If your league uses Week 17, Najeh Davenport is a reasonable play against Baltimore. Raiders RB Justin Fargas (knee) is expected to miss the rest of the year, so Dominic Rhodes starts at Jacksonville, with LaMont Jordan also in the mix. Saints RB Reggie Bush (knee) sat the last two days after doing some work on Wednesday. I'll be surprised if he does a lot against the Eagles, and I'll be ranking Aaron Stecker in the Top 20 for another week. Chiefs RB Larry Johnson (foot) is out for another week, so Kolby Smith gets the rock at Detroit. Bengals RB Rudi Johnson (hamstring) won't go against Cleveland, so things set up nicely for Kenny Watson. DeDe Dorsey could also see 8-10 touches in a secondary role. Titans RB LenDale White (knee) got back to work Friday and is listed as probable. Redskins RB Clinton Portis (stomach flu) was back in the mix Thursday and Friday after sitting out Wednesday's session. He'll go at Minnesota. 49ers RB Frank Gore (ankle) missed some reps this week, his normal routine, but he should play a full game against Tampa Bay. Texans RB Ron Dayne (ankle) was limited most of the week but should go against the Colts, albeit Darius Walker is expected to start. Dolphins RB Jesse Chatman (ankle) did some work this week and has a chance to play at New England, though Sam Gado will also be involved. Good luck with any of your Dolphins. Chargers RB Michael Turner (shoulder) was limited all week, so RB Darren Sproles might be the No. 2 option Monday against Denver. Larry Fitzgerald (groin) and Anquan Boldin (toe) were both tentative in practice all week, including Friday. Both are expected to go Sunday, but there's risk here, and there's no guarantee of a full game from either. Saints WR Marques Colston has a sore back and missed some reps Friday, but he's listed as probable for the Eagles. Colts WR Marvin Harrison (knee) is out for another week, with Anthony Gonzalez continuing to start. Panthers WR Steve Smith (illness) had a full workout Thursday and will play against Dallas. We wonder if Smith might be allergic to the end zone – he hasn't scored since Week 6. Jets WR Laveranues Coles (ankle) did very little this week and looks unlikely to go at Tennessee. Even if he does get on the field, I can't see how you use him. WR Jerricho Cotchery (finger) was also limited the last three days, but he's got a decent chance to be in the mix. Giants WR Plaxico Burress (ankle) didn't practice Friday but should play at Buffalo, as usual. The weather is a significant concern there, so give strong consideration to your other receivers. Broncos WR Javon Walker (knee) had a good week and should go Monday against San Diego. The news is less encouraging on Brandon Stokley, who's still questionable with a sore knee. Lions WR Roy Williams (knee) is done for the season. Bengals WR Chris Henry (ankle) missed the Wednesday work but is otherwise fine. Seahawks WR D.J. Hackett (ankle) is out for another week. Vikings WR Sidney Rice (high-ankle sprain) is out indefinitely. Bears WR/KR Devin Hester (shin) is expected to play Sunday against the Packers. Cowboys WR Terry Glenn (knee) is out for another week. Titans WR Brandon Jones (groin) won't return in 2007. Jets WR Brad Smith has a sore back, if anyone asks. Giants TE Jeremy Shockey (leg) is out for the year, with Kevin Boss stepping forward. Boss had a surprising touchdown against Washington last week. Eagles TE L.J. Smith (knee/ribs) is probably done for the year and Matt Schobel (concussion) is no sure thing for New Orleans, so intriguing Brent Celek probably starts at New Orleans. Ravens TE Todd Heap (hamstring) is doubtful for another week. Patriots TE Benjamin Watson (ankle) was limited all week and is a dangerous start against Miami. Kyle Brady (foot) is also less than 100 percent. Bills TE Robert Royal is expected to play despite his sore knee and foot. Saints TE Eric Johnson (groin) is unlikely to play, with Billy Miller set to go in his place. Packers TE Bubba Franks (knee) increased his workload this week and might go against Chicago. Jets TE Chris Baker (back) was limited all week but I expect he'll start at Tennessee. He's worked through this injury for a while. Broncos TE Daniel Graham (ankle) is expected to sit at San Diego. Titans DT Albert Haynesworth (hamstring) is less than 100 percent but hopes to play against the Jets . Panthers DE Julius Peppers (knee) probably won't dress for Saturday's game with the Cowboys. Tony Romo will sure appreciate that. Dolphins DE Jason Taylor (foot) expects to play through the pain at New England. Ravens LB Ray Lewis (back/hand) is very iffy for Sunday's game at Seattle. Chargers LB Shawne Merriman (knee) expects to go for Monday's game against Denver. Cowboys S Roy Williams (horse collar suspension) will not play Saturday at Carolina. Vikings CB Antoine Winfield (shoulder) missed Friday's work and probably won't go against the Redskins. Both of Baltimore's starting corners (Chris McAlister, Samari Rolle) are out for the season.
December 20
By David Ferris Below are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL. * = check status
December 19
By Michael Salfino Week 15 was hopelessly destroyed by a nor'easter that wiped out many heretofore fantasy heroes. The stakes are even higher in Week 16. Weather is something we can't forecast midweek. But we do know now that some stars may be playing half-heartedly, if at all, given that 80 percent of playoff spots and seeds are locked up. Upgrade Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: All the chips are on the table when the Redskins come into town this week. With a talent like Peterson, you don't worry about the opponent's rankings versus the run. Peterson can gash anyone with his elite combination of power, elusiveness and speed. Chester Taylor was used as a typical backup/third-down back last week. Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: The Redskins scheme the running game well, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Portis have success against the normally stout Vikings front seven. In this week, with so many stars seemingly unmotivated to give their all, Portis' ability to always play with passion coupled with Washington's playoff chances outweigh the bad matchup. Fred Taylor, RB, Jaguars: I'm not surprised about how well Taylor has run, because he ran that well last year. That's why I was down on Maurice Jones-Drew in August. Even I will ignore age and mileage when I see a 5.0 or better yards-per-carry average. Taylor's been fortunate to get some red-zone TDs that normally would fall to Jones-Drew. But he's always playable in yardage-heavy leagues. The Jaguars still need a win to clinch a playoff spot. Browns offense: I think Jamal Lewis is the best play now on this unit given the inclement weather possible in Cincy this weekend. Plus the Browns have a reputation as a throwing team, but are decidedly run-heavy on first down and when the score is close. Lewis is on the top of his game and the Bengals are pushovers. Of course, barring more heavy winds, play all Browns you normally would. Saints passing game: Drew Brees and Marques Colston are locked in. Colston has been as dynamic as any fantasy wideout other than Randy Moss the past two months. And he's in the ballpark with Moss. Even David Patten is a sneaky play if you can grab him on the waiver wire and bench a better player who is likely to treat Sunday like the second preseason week. The Saints still cling to playoff life. Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles: New Orleans can't play defense and Westbrook should have his way not only on the ground but especially in the passing game. Hopefully, he won't again give up the easy TD so his team can kill the clock (a heady play, we must admit). The Eagles made it clear last week in the spirited upset of the Cowboys that they won't lie down. Donovan McNabb just isn't very good right now, so don't rush to play him and the Eagles receivers despite the Saints' bottom ranking in YPA allowed. No change Packers offense: Green Bay is alive for the No. 1 seed thanks to Dallas' loss last week. So the Packers should be sufficiently motivated in Chicago, where wind is most likely to be a factor. Forget what Bob Dylan says: you do need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows in Week 16. Cowboys offense: Monitor Tony Romo's thumb. Teams usually play hard for the No. 1 seed. No guarantees though, with the other seedings. That's why playing Chargers is a hold-your-breath proposition going forward. Patriots Passing Game: Tom Brady and company are locked into the historic run at 19-0 and will be looking to rev the passing game back up against the terrible Dolphins' defense before the home fans. Weather is all you worry about, and not temperature or even flurries -- just 20-plus MPH winds. Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots: He needs another nor'easter to be productive. Seahawks offense: I'm on the fence here. If you have Hasselbeck and no decent options (another top 15 QB) behind him, I guess you have to roll with him and his starting receivers. Last week's dull effort against the Panthers makes me pessimistic. But they're home this week against the Ravens, as dead as a team can be. Thinking a locked-in playoff team won't mail it in at home may be wishcasting. Downgrade Colts offense: Indy's shown in the past that they treat these last regular-season games like glorified preseason weeks and focus intently on keeping guys healthy. Given the number of starters they have sidelined, you can't blame them. Tampa Bay offense: The Bucs have played hard all year. But I hate them traveling all the way to San Francisco and mucking it up with the ugly Niners, given they have already clinched the NFC South and have no chance at a Week 18 bye. Do they care about whether they play the Vikings or the Giants? New York is the likely higher seed and the worst team, by far, now. So you can argue that the Bucs are better off with the lower (No. 4) seed.
December 18
By Michael Salfino Despite 40 years of data that shows that passing the ball more efficiently than your opponent leads directly to victory, NFL head coaches today seem as eager to run as their iconic hero, Vince Lombardi. Though the power sweep was Lombardi's signature play, his famous first Super Bowl championship team finished No. 1 in yards per pass attempt. Running efficiency? Those 1966 Packers were 13th (of 15 NFL teams) in yards per rush. You'd think NFL coaches wouldn't need an engraved invitation to pass aggressively, given that virtually every rule change in the intervening period has strongly favored the passing game. Yet even in this season when the Patriots are setting the league on fire with a passing game only the elements can seem to stop, they continue to prefer to run the ball. The evidence is clear when we look at first-down playcalling splits. In an effort to ensure that teams aren't influenced to run or pass because of the game situation, we focus on first downs in the first half, and then at first-down calls when the score is tied. The first thing that jumps out at you when you look at these splits is how run-heavy almost all teams are on first down early in games. Most run on around 60 percent of first-down plays in the first quarter, with the Jets standing out in running a ridiculously conservative 72.4 percent of the time. Only eight teams pass more than 50 percent of the time on first down in both the first and second quarters: the Lions, Packers, Colts, Saints, Giants, Eagles, Niners and Seahawks. The Seahawks are most extreme, at 60 percent in the first half overall and slightly more than 60 percent in the first quarter (very unusual in today's game). More teams pass on first down when the score is tied, but still only 14 of 32. And only eight throw more than 53 percent of the time on first down in tie games: the Chargers (67 percent), Lions (67 percent), Saints (61 percent), Seahawks (60 percent), Eagles (59 percent), Giants (59 percent), Cowboys (57 percent) and Patriots (57 percent). The only teams on both lists are the Lions, Saints, Giants, Eagles and Seahawks. The old saw that coaches cite is that three things can happen when you throw and two of them, sacks and turnovers, are bad. Let's see if those five pass-heavy teams are more prone to error. Only Detroit is bottom 10 in both sack and interception rates (relative to attempts). The Eagles are bottom 10 in just sack rate. But none of the other teams are ranked poorly in either category and the Saints are actually top 10 in both lowest sack and interception rates. The Seahawks are 4th in interception rate, the Eagles 10th. So just because these teams pass a lot, doesn't necessarily mean they live dangerously. Let's now mine these splits to project some individual performers. Buy Shaun McDonald, WR, Lions: Roy Williams' injury has made him a productive player again after a very quiet couple of months. When you're a WR on the field on every play for a team that throws two-thirds of the time, you will be a stat compiler. Deion Branch, WR, Seahawks: He's healthy and again productive on a team with no real option at running back, given that Shaun Alexander is officially washed up. Drew Brees, QB, Saints: He's been money for many weeks now and gets another dome game this week at home against the Eagles, who are only 14th in YPA allowed even after the takedown of Tony Romo and Terrell Owens. Hold Derek Anderson, QB, Browns: Two more potential bad-weather games upcoming (at Cincy, home vs. Niners). But more important, the Browns only want to pass when they have to: 60 percent runs when the score is tied. Sell Eli Manning, QB, Giants: He had the most incompletions (34) since Joe Namath had 36 against the Broncos 40 years ago. Now Jeremy Shockey is out (broken leg). The bottom line with Eli: He's average and will never be anything more. Kevin Jones, RB, Lions: He's had 20 carries in two of the last six games and 23 total the other four games combined.
December 16
By David Ferris Talk about a messy batch of fantasy football results, that's what we got in Week 15. Nasty winter conditions took their toll in several stadiums, and plenty of normally reliable players pitched their worst efforts of the season (Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Derek Anderson and Antonio Gates among them). So what's a shrewd fantasy owner to do? Steal points in other categories, that's what. Kicker and defense returns for Week 15 were very much true to form, and there's a lesson to be learned here. Those positions are team-dependent, so it makes sense to follow the bigger favorites. The top defenses of the week came from three heavily favored clubs (Patriots, Bucs, Chargers), and the kickers also fell in line (Mason Crosby, Nate Kaeding and Matt Bryant landed in the Top 4 for the week, no doubt aided by weather-friendly environments). And even in highly competitive circles, you could land some of these options for Week 15 if you were alert to the move. Just look ahead a week or so, and pick out a mismatch on paper. Every piece of support helps. -Give Jamal Lewis credit for trimming down and taking the 2007 season very seriously, making good on the one-year deal Cleveland extended him. His offensive line is helping the cause, sure, but Lewis is getting plenty of extra yards with his power and a surprising second gear. Now the Browns have a tricky call to make -- how invested do you get in a back like Lewis, who's carrying plenty of mileage and already has two major knee surgeries on the resume? -Make it seven monster games out of eight for Marques Colston, who's emphatically answered the critics who were calling him a one-season wonder. Add up the ballistic run and you get 61 catches, 829 yards and seven touchdowns. It will be interesting to see him run with the Eagles next week, given how well Philadelphia contained Terrell Owens on Sunday. -Have a heart with Brian Westbrook and his one-yard kneel down at the end of the Dallas win. He's putting the team's welfare above personal goals, and that deserves to be saluted. And in a league where mindless play finds its way to every field on every weekend, it's refreshing to see the constantly alert play of someone like Westbrook. Quick Hits: Andre Johnson just needs a full season of health and he's a Top 5 receiver next year, easily ... Three steps forward, two steps back – that's the fun of watching Kurt Warner direct an offense ... It's a shame Justin McCareins has such unreliable hands, because he can get open, and he can do damage after the catch. But if the ball isn't in your possession, none of that matters ... Clinton Portis is a much better inside runner than he's generally given credit for ... What was more gutless: Bobby Petrino's exit from Atlanta or Brian Billick's endgame in Miami? I'll let you make the call there ... The Colts need a contributing Marvin Harrison to be dangerous in the playoffs, but at least Anthony Gonzalez has stepped up his game over the last few weeks. Peyton Manning clearly trusts the rookie in all situations now ... Laurence Maroney got his 26 carries and did well with them, but I still don't see the powerful back we were all gushing over a year ago. He's yet to make 20 yards or more on any carry this season. Perhaps he's another for the JAG file ("just a guy") and not a true difference-maker ... If you saw the rejuvenation coming on Fred Taylor's career, you're a better man than I. He's become the most important part of that running game again ... The man in front of you in the returns line might just be Mike Shanahan, wondering if it's too late to get a full refund (or merchandise credit) on Travis Henry ... Just once I'd like to see Marc Bulger behind a line that can protect him ... Reggie Bush's uneven season was on display for all to see, but the disappointment really hits home when we see a journeyman like Aaron Stecker tear it up over the last two weeks.
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