Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Thanksgiving. The turkey is in the oven. The fantasy pots are on the table, waiting to be won. The clearest path to the Bill Winkenbach* Trophy is Tom Brady and Randy Moss, with Tony Romo and Terrell Owens close behind. Running backs? We don’t need no stinkin’ running backs!

*Winkenbach is given credit for inventing fantasy football and creating the GOPPPL (Greater Oakland Professional Pigskin Prognosticators League) as a part-owner of the Raiders in 1962.

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Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: This is just silly. I’d say he’s exceeded projections with 38 TD passes already (on pace for, hold on to your hat, 61). He throws a TD every nine attempts. It doesn’t seem mathematically possible for him to toss less than three in a week.
He’s also run for two, just to be a pig. His owners are going to have to go on one of those reality weight-loss shows after fattening up on him all fall and winter. Their wallets are likely to be fattened, too.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: Remember when those reports surfaced that he’d be cut? The Moss owners in your league couldn’t have planted it any better, because that got even guys like me who were bullish all summer off him to the point where he was there 40 picks into almost every draft. I was on the radio this week and in assessing the Patriots in a historical fantasy context, I opined that Brady was Manning 2004, Wes Welker the 2004 Brandon Stokley and Moss the 2004 Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne put together. Moss, by the way, is on pace for 26 TD catches. Gulp! I guess that could beat us, after all.

Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys: Nine TD catches the last five weeks.
Owens is clearly trying to assert himself as the NFC Moss. In a redraft league I was in a couple of weeks ago, two writers took Braylon Edwards and Plaxico Burress ahead of Owens (whom I nabbed with the 19th pick). I could buy Edwards but not Burress ahead of TO. Plax is too banged up and the writing’s been on the wall all year. Owens is a marvel in not losing anything at the age of 34 (on Dec. 7). He’s as fit and fast as ever, and able to overpower and run by 95 percent of corners.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys: Now we’re into the mere mortals, but just barely. Romo is probably going to throw 40 TD passes. He also might get Terry Glenn back. The caveat is that the Cowboys seem intent on running more when it really matters than the 2004 Colts or 2007 Patriots. For example, they run on 59 percent of red zone plays, the Patriots 54 percent. But just 28 percent of Patriots red-zone TDs are on the ground, compared to 43 percent for the Cowboys. A stronger Dallas commitment to generating TDs through the air when closer to paydirt is all that’s stopping Romo from being a truly monster fantasy player.

Michael Bush, RB, Raiders: Sneak him on to your roster, like I advised with the Bengals' Chris Henry a couple of weeks ago. He’s reportedly about to be activated. If Daunte Culpepper looks anything like last week, the Raiders' offense should be average even against a tough schedule. Their line is good. In a RB-weak year, the 6-2, 240-pound Bush can be a sneaky Thanksgiving pickup who pays big dividends for a team loaded at QB and WR but thin at RB. Remember, Bush was viewed by many to be more talented than the Vikings' Adrian Peterson before breaking his leg at Louisville in 2006. (UPDATE: Bush was kept on the PUP list and thus can't play this year even though the coaching staff felt he was healthy enough to play. The reported reason is that they didn't want to release LaMont Jordan and have him picked up by an AFC West team. Al Davis is now officially the crazy uncle at the Thanksgiving table.)

No Change

Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos: Javon Walker might be back this week, but Marshall has asserted himself as a viable weapon and now will get more favorable matchups with coverages tending to roll in the direction of Walker, who may be limited to decoy duty given the severity of his knee injury. Jay Cutler is light years better than Vince Young and Matt Leinart.

Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts: We have to see him suit up to upgrade him. But there are definitive reports that his injury is not chronic and that he should be back at full strength sometime in early December. I’m bullish on his chances of becoming a No. 1 fantasy WR again in time for our playoffs weeks 15 and 16.

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Shaun Alexander, RB, Seahawks: The coach doesn’t want to play you when he places strict conditions, such as Holmgren’s edict that Alexander doesn’t suit up until he practices fully Wednesday, Thursday AND Friday. We can’t blame him, as the Seahawks have found their mojo with Hasselbeck in the shotgun and Maurice Morris providing a dual threat at RB.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: He’s week-to-week and must wear a knee brace when he returns. Even if we accept that the torn knee ligament can’t get worse by playing, why take the chance that he could suffer another injury by compensating in any way for that one? Don’t let him be humbled in any way if he’s hampered. Let him continue to think he’s unstoppable. Plus, Chester Taylor is obviously quite capable and building some trade value.

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers: I’d rather own Jamal Lewis of the Browns right now. The Steelers have gone back and forth on giving Parker goal-line carries. Now, as the injuries (hip, knee) mount, he can’t even sustain any explosiveness between the 20s.

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