Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Do three-and-out stats allow us to better assess offensive and defensive dominance?

If so, the teams with the most net three-and-out possessions (after subtracting possessions without a first down from those of the opponents) should win lots of games. The teams in negative territory should be big losers. And these three-and-out percentages should also correlate neatly to points per game for and against.

Our top 10 net three-and-out teams win 58 percent of games; the bottom 10 win 49 percent. Last year's results weren't much better. Bottom line: there are at least 15 team stats that beat three-and-out possessions when measured the same way.

Do the offenses that have the lowest percentage of three-and-out possessions score the most points and defenses with the highest allow the least?

Offenses with the lowest percentages of three-and-outs: Patriots (25 percent), Broncos (27), Colts (28), Seahawks (29), Vikings (30) and Bengals (30).

Assessing them is tricky, because the Patriots skew the average with their gluttonous 41 points per game. The NFL average, though, is about 21 PPG. The Broncos and the Vikings are below that; the Colts, the Seahawks and the Bengals significantly above it. I believe the Broncos' points per game is slightly deceiving, because they scored just seven points in Detroit after losing QB Jay Cutler early.

The worst three-and-out offenses should score well below average. The bad teams here are the 49ers (48 percent of possessions), the Chiefs (43), the Cardinals (41), the Panthers (41), the Falcons (40) and the Bills (39). They are 32nd, 30th, 12th, 27th, 31st and 28th in points per game. That boosts confidence in the relevance of three-and-outs.

Looking at the other side of the ball, the defenses that do not allow a first down on the highest percentage of possessions are the Steelers (47 percent), the Ravens (42), the Bears (41), the Titans (41), the Cardinals (41), the Panthers (41), the Bucs (40) the and Rams (40). The Cardinals and the Rams have benefited from playing the historically inept Niners (twice already for the Rams).

Pittsburgh has allowed the fewest points per game. The Ravens are 14th, but have been done in a lot by their turnover-prone offense. But the Bears and the Rams are 17th and 28th. The Panthers and the Cardinals 15th and 20th. If these teams are so good at getting offenses off the field, why do they allow so many points? Big plays? Poor red-zone defense? We'll seek answers in future columns.

The worst three-and-out defenses are the Jets (24 percent), the Chargers (26), the Bills (28), the Broncos (29), the Bengals (30), the Saints (30). Only one of these teams, the Chargers, is ranked higher than 20th in points allowed. So, again, the correlation seems better with the worst teams than with the best.

Let's see if we can mine this data to make some player recommendations.

Buy

Broncos Passing Game: All the running backs are dinged up and Travis Henry dodges drug tests better now than linebackers. Javon Walker is due back Sunday. Mike Shanahan thinks Brandon Stokley is an ace slot receiver. Brandon Marshall has freakish athleticism. Most important, Jay Cutler can make all the throws in eye-popping fashion. He's the big sleeper QB on the board right now.

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts: It's been sad of late, seeing Manning toil with no weapons. But Marvin Harrison really, most sincerely should be back Dec. 2 (cross GM Bill Polian's heart). Dallas Clark (concussion) should shake off the cobwebs by then. The matchups aren't great, but Manning doesn't worry about matchups when the Indy guns are loaded.

T.J. Hackett, WR, Seahawks: Shaun Alexander's absence has liberated Mike Holmgren into becoming pass-happy again, turning Hackett into a top 25 receiver and Matt Hasselbeck into a top 5 QB.

Hold

Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns: This once-boring Brown finds paydirt (fourth in rushing TDs). Cleveland averages more than 30 points per game with Derek Anderson at QB, and the remaining schedule has a bunch of easy marks.

Sell

Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals: Kurt Warner is like the one-armed drummer with those backward handoffs when James runs right. Sorry, it doesn't quite work. The result: too many third-and-longs followed by punts.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: He's been productive of late and scored a TD last week, but the Chiefs' offense is a lost cause with inexperienced Brodie Croyle at QB and Larry Johnson likely out until 2008.

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