Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Coaches are spending more time on red-zone offense, trying to crack the code and maximize point production with play-calling proficiency.

You can reasonably take issue with importance placed on red-zone outcomes, as merely getting there more often than your opponents correlates to winning and losing every year better than the more famous TD efficiency stats. But there’s no denying that what happens inside the opponent’s 20 is very important because that is, after all, where most NFL points are generated.

Let’s look at the players whom teams are relying upon in the red zone to determine whether their performance warrants such extreme usage. Stats courtesy of Rotowire.com.

The most targeted WR in the red zone is New England’s Wes Welker, with 17 passes. This isn’t completions, rather merely times thrown to. Slotting behind Welker are Marques Colston (Saints) and Braylon Edwards (Browns), with 16 each. The Giants' Amani Toomer has 15. Randy Moss (NE) and Reggie Wayne (Colts) have 14 each. All of these players have produced in the red zone.

Percentage splits tell us the frequency with which receivers are targeted on all red-zone passes. Here, Denver’s Brandon Marshall leads at 41 percent (red-zone passes thrown to him). After Edwards (38 percent), Laveranues Coles (Jets) is next at 37 percent, followed by Toomer at 36 percent, compared to 12 percent for Plaxico Burress. Also over 30 percent are Ronald Curry (Raiders), Hines Ward (Steelers), Torry Holt (Rams), Colston, Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) and Steve Smith (Panthers).

Terrell Owens? Targeted just seven times and on only 16 percent of Cowboy red-zone passes.

At TE, Antonio Gates (Chargers) leads in number of targets (15), but Chris Cooley has been targeted on more than 40 percent of the Redskins' red-zone passes. Other TEs over 25 percent are Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs), Kellen Winslow (Browns), Vernon Davis (Niners), Justin Peele (Dolphins), Visanthe Shiancoe (Vikings) and Bo Scaife (Titans).

Running backs are harder to grade. You can’t expect a high conversion rate until they get the ball inside the opposing 3-yard line. But, as the best teams at converting red-zone opportunities into TDs tend to run the ball there the best, look for a high yards per carry average in the red zone.

Seven backs currently have more than 30 red-zone carries: Marshawn Lynch (Bills), Joseph Addai (Colts), Willie Parker (Steelers), LenDale White (Titans), LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers), Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars) and Clinton Portis (Redskins).

Only one of these backs averages more than 3.0 per red zone rush: Addai (4.4). The next best is White (2.9), followed by Tomlinson (2.7) and Portis (2.5).

Interestingly, Thomas Jones (Jets) averages 3.0 on 22 red-zone rushes, but has zero TDs.

Brian Westbrook (Eagles) and Reggie Bush (Saints) are the only backs with 10 or more receiving targets in the red zone.

Let’s use these red-zone stats to make player recommendations.

Buy

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: With Anquan Boldin (hip) still limping and a favorable schedule, Fitzgerald will produce in the remainder of ’07 in line with his All-World ability.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: He has 16 red-zone TDs already. Amazingly, the Steelers opponents have a higher red-zone QB rating (94.3) than does Big Ben (88.6). Nine of these Roethisberger red-zone strikes have gone to tight ends.

Hold

Derek Anderson, QB, Browns: Has he been lucky? His completion percentage here is terrible (42.9), but he has 12 TDs inside the 20 with just one pick.

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts: He’s missing Marvin Harrison, as he has just nine RZ TD passes (on 47 attempts). Last year, he converted 24-of-81 attempts here.

Sell

Vince Young, QB, Titans: It’s not the terrible throwing (67 QB rating and two TDs) but the lack of rushing (just five attempts, two of which he’s scored on) that most surprise me regarding his red-zone profile.

Niners offense: They’re all deservedly penny stocks right now. Former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith has one TD on 20 RZ attempts. Frank Gore is averaging 1.5 yards on his 13 red zone carries.

Bills QBs: Buffalo runs twice as often as they pass in the red zone and have just two TD passes by QBs here this year (Lynch fired one last week).

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