9:18 PM Tue, Nov 06, 2007 | Permalink
Mike McDermott  Email
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By Michael Salfino
Philip Rivers and Drew Brees are connected once more, not as current and ex-Chargers QBs, but as 2007 signal callers who’ve experienced a wide variance of play.
Given the importance of their position, it’s no surprise that they’ve played better in wins than in losses. But the exact variance helps us establish the range of performance they’re capable of on any given Sunday.
When the Chargers win, Rivers has a 108.4 QB rating, very much in line with high preseason expectations regarding his professional prospects. But in losses, Rivers clocks in at a journeyman-like 69.1. While that’s certainly a negative downward trend, remember that his overall QB rating is about 83, just 10 percent worse than last year.
Looking more deeply, five of his eight picks come on short passes (10 yards or less from scrimmage). And he doesn’t seem to be throwing long often enough given his success here. Maybe some of these short passes are desperate check downs after deeper receivers fail to get necessary separation. Speculating, I think he needs to take more sacks; he’s been dumped only 11 times all year. Sacks cause punts; picks cause losses (every interception, statisticians say, translates to a six-point swing on the scoreboard).
Brees has an even wider range than Rivers: 115 QB rating in Saints wins, 57 in losses. Overall, his QB rating to date is just a shade better than Rivers' (84.6). Brees’ bad play in 2007 appears to be less random due to it being neatly limited to mostly the season’s first month. But appearances often deceive.
Like Rivers, Brees is only off about 10 percent from his Pro Bowl-worthy 2007 QB rating (an imperfect, but useful tool).
Professionals like Brees and Rivers are in the 99.9th percentile of athletic skill. Greatness is in almost all of them, waiting to be unlocked. And almost all of them can suddenly seem lost. We need to accept that very subtle factors swing the pendulum from one extreme to the other.
What makes Peyton Manning and Tom Brady truly great is that they’ve refined their ability to such a degree that their range of performance is very narrow. Their worst day is a good day for almost anyone else. They rarely play poor enough to be blamed for a loss; that’s why their teams so rarely lose.
The bottom line with Brees and Rivers is that, as their 2007 seasons prove, they are not great. Rather, they reside in the more heavily populated land of the merely good players who are sometimes viewed as kings or as clowns, depending on a variety of factors such as coaching and the performance of their teammates.
Let’s speculate on why some other players trending one way earlier in the year seem to be performing far differently now.
Buy
Roy Williams, WR, Lions: Had 204 receiving yards on September 23 vs. the Eagles and has generated only 233 since. The Lions defense suddenly seems stout, which means less passing. Calvin Johnson has returned to the lineup and can go back to distracting defenses.
Hold
Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Like Jamal Lewis in 2003, he’s ripping off all long runs because defenses are crowding the line of scrimmage in an effort to stop him for no gain. He gets stuffed a lot, too, and, given the poor Vikings QB play, will keep mixing nothing games in with the 200s.
Sell
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Bengals: Chris Henry is even a better TD maker than T.J., and Henry (15 TDs in 67 career catches) returns from suspension this week.
Brett Favre, QB, Packers: Unlike Brady and Manning, he loses games, too. The last two weeks, he’s had no TD drives longer than 30 yards, scoring elsewhere only via bombs. Those are fun but mask lots of mediocrity.
Lee Evans, WR, Bills: He lacks the size to beat press coverage and needs a big cushion to operate. The last couple of weeks, J.P. Losman has gotten hot. When J.P. again blows cold, Evans goes back into the deep freeze.
Travis Henry, RB, Broncos: Henry had fleas other than his drug rap sheet heading into the season: he’s 29, he had disappointed before, he’s 29. Seriously, RBs depreciate almost as fast as new cars. Never buy used.
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