Position-by-position player rankings for Week 13
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November 2007 ArchivesNovember 29
By David Ferris Below are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL. * = check status Quarterback 
November 28
By JOHN McFARLAND Even the most hard-core NFL fan couldn't spot third-stringers Kolby Smith or Andre Hall walking down the street, yet these recently unheard of characters are already huge in fantasy football. That's because both produced big stats last week after getting snatched up as free agents - a rare double-whammy that helped fantasy owners win games and, perhaps more importantly, helped them impress geeky rivals with their fake GM prowess. Kansas City's Smith, a rookie playing because Larry Johnson is injured and Priest Holmes retired, put up 150 yards and two scores. Hall, also playing because the two guys ahead of him couldn't, had 98 yards and a score for Denver. Even for owners not clever enough to land them, Smith and Hall offer a valuable lesson to anybody making a fantasy playoff run: It's never too late to gamble on free agents. Just ask the owners of Chester Taylor, Maurice Morris or some of the other Waiver Wire All-Stars. As you size up the finer points of Cecil Sapp's game, here's a look at players to start in Week 13, players to avoid and a few long shots who just might pan out: QUARTERBACKS: A SAFE BET -It's scary to make a playoff run with Arizona's Kurt Warner, considering he's ailing and 36. But he passed for nearly 500 yards last week, has seven scores in the past three games and faces a Browns defense that has allowed a league-worst 25 TD passes. -Opposite Warner, the much-younger and nimbler Derek Anderson also could be in for a big day. The Cardinals have been decent stopping the run, and haven't done so well against the pass. Last week they actually made Trent Dilfer look good. -Things haven't gone well for Jon Kitna during the Lions' three-game losing streak (4 TDs, 6 INTs, 11 sacks). But he faces the Vikings' NFL-worst pass defense, which, aside from Eli Manning's holiday gift basket last week, hasn't stopped anybody. -Hey, look who dropped in for a multiple-TD day: San Diego's Philip Rivers. He should buck his on-again-off-again pattern and not stink this week. He had two TDs at Kansas City last year, and that was when the Chiefs were kind of respectable. -Washington's Jason Campbell has two straight 300-yard games. Oh, sure he's also had turnovers and defeats, but nobody cares about that stuff in fantasy football. TAKE A SHOT -Trent Dilfer reminded San Francisco fans that touchdowns actually can come in groups of three or four. He has a chance to do it again against the long-ago-surrendered Panthers. BACK AWAY SLOWLY AND NOBODY GETS HURT Please, in the name of Elvis Grbac, don't start these guys: -Steer clear of the Giants' Eli Manning and Chicago's Rex Grossman in the Underachiever Bowl. The defensive stats indicate big days for one or both, but come on, have you been watching them? -Likewise, don't leave your playoff hopes in the hands of anybody operating the Rams' line-free attack. If Marc Bulger starts, he may not finish. And backup Gus Frerotte's still working on his center snap technique. -It's impressive that Jacksonville's David Garrard has thrown nine TDs and no interceptions, but he's been a fantasy flop in two career games against the Colts (no scores, fewer than 80 yards each time). RUNNING BACKS: ALL DAY LONG -Apparently the first conversation with the 49ers' newly hired offensive consultant started something like this: Say ... have you guys tried getting the ball to that Frank Gore kid? Gore had a season-best 32 touches, 214 total yards and two scores last week. -Minnesota rookie Adrian Peterson returns from injury, and the team says he'll go back to sharing time with Chester Taylor. But start him anyhow, considering he still leads the league in rushing despite taking the past two weeks off. -There's only one NFL certainty outside New England and Miami: Somebody's going to run through Oakland's defense (league-worst 154 yards a game, 18 TDs). So start Selvin Young, Andre Hall, Cecil Sapp or whomever the Broncos roll out. -Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew has a pretty good history against the Colts, scoring five times and averaging 128 yards from scrimmage in three career games. -Which is in more danger, Miami's winless streak or Thomas Jones' streak of 207 carries without a TD? They're probably both safe when the Jets visit the Dolphins, but this may be the last chance to redeem some value for the draft pick wasted on Jones. HE COULD FIND A SEAM -The other Adrian Peterson, the one in Chicago, has had a few explosive moments off the bench and now replaces the injured Cedric Benson as the starter. RED FLAGS -Reggie Bush has never really gone nuts as the Saints' featured back, and his 12 touches in a big win last week have to concern fantasy owners. He only had 70 total yards against the Bucs earlier this season. -Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson is coming off a season-high 25 carries and his first rushing touchdown, but the Steelers should stuff him. He had 47 yards and no scores in both games last year against Pittsburgh, which has allowed just two TDs rushing in 2007. -DeShaun Foster has been beyond disappointing. Send a message to the rest of your fantasy roster by cutting him after his ridiculous rushing total of minus-5 yards. WIDE RECEIVERS: THROW HIM THE DARN BALL! -Sourpuss Steve Smith has been a wreck along with the rest of the Panthers. But if Kurt Warner can nearly go for 500 yards against the 49ers, why can't 44-year-old Vinny Testaverde? -Detroit's Roy Williams is due, having gone without a score in seven of his last eight games. Last time he played the Vikings, he went for 111 yards and a TD. -Seattle's Deion Branch should put up some big numbers on the Eagles, who aren't nearly as scary defensively as they once were. Every decent QB they've faced since October has passed for 300 yards and/or three touchdowns. -If Pittsburgh's Hines Ward can pick up 88 yards while running through turf the consistency of oatmeal, imagine what he can do with even a little traction against the mushy Bengals defense. -The Bears are certain to emulate the Vikings and force the Giants' Eli Manning to throw deep. So in between Manning's interceptions and backward-scramble-then-fall-down moves, Plaxico Burress just may put up some points. MAYBE THROW HIM THE DARN BALL? -The Dolphins appear to be inching toward victory, so celebrate by taking a long, long, long shot on Ted Ginn Jr. because he's the only guy I can name on the Miami roster. SHOW HIM THE DARN BENCH -Should you ever bench a guy who just scored three TDs in a game? Maybe, if it's Cincinnati's Chad Johnson. He hasn't scored or gone over 100 yards in his past five games against the Steelers, who have the NFL's top-ranked pass defense. -It might not be worth starting Denver's Javon Walker until he truly proves he's back from a knee injury. Last week's "return" was good for a handful of plays and zero catches. -Benching Eagles receivers is usually a good idea, but even more so considering the question mark at QB and the fact that the Seahawks have allowed a league-low six TD passes. FREE AGENT SHOPPING LIST Pick up these guys if they're available in your league: Chicago RB Adrian Peterson (TD, new starter), QB A.J. Feeley (345 yards, 3 TDs), RB Cecil Sapp (possible starter with Andre Hall hurt), WR Anthony Gonzalez (105 yards), QB Gus Frerotte (possible starter or finisher), WR Isaac Bruce (TD).
By Michael Salfino Week 13 is here and we don’t jump right to Week 14 like those elevators in the hotels. But who isn’t superstitious this time of year, with the fantasy playoffs at hand and division titles left to be decided? Let’s do away with the rabbit foots and lucky charms and look rationally at the numbers and playing environments of the following. A.J. Feeley, QB, Eagles: Feeley had a terrible beginning and ending Sunday night, but sure was sweet in between. He’s more decisive and accurate than Donovan McNabb, who still looks to run without the necessary wheels. Boost Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown while Feeley starts, too. Marc Bulger, QB, Rams: He’s knocked out of lots of games. So beware. The Falcons, this week’s opponent, are 17th in yards allowed per pass attempt, but 11th in red-zone TD efficiency and second in third-down efficiency. They’re not an easy mark. Javon Walker, WR, Broncos: Too risky to play this week. Coach Mike Shanahan says he’s easing him back off the knee surgery. The loss to the Bears makes a playoff run less likely and increases the chances that the Broncos will err on the side of caution with Walker. Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: Told the booing crowd to shut up and then threw three TDs. That used to mean something against the Ravens. But Baltimore is 27th ranked in this key pass defense stat: YPA allowed. Ricky Williams, RB, Dolphins: Maybe he qualified for medicinal marijuana now with the torn pectoral muscle. More importantly, Samkon Gado, re-signed this week, likely starts if Jesse Chatman (neck) can’t go. Vince Young, QB, Titans: He still stinks. Sorry for touting him in the summer. I can blame the coaching staff, the playing environment, Young’s stubbornness in insisting he can be a pocket passer or my mother-in-law. But that’s not going to help those who drafted him. I firmly believe that 2007 is a lost cause for him. Eli Manning, QB, Giants: Knee and ankle injuries now for Plaxico Burress. Giants fans are upset with Manning for not showing emotion. The bigger problem is his inability to show elite QB talent that obviously isn’t necessarily genetic.
November 27
By Michael Salfino Lots of player prognosticators are saying "I told you so" this year regarding the disappointing season of Larry Johnson, which has apparently (but not officially) ended in injury. The math for these people is simple: 400-plus carries equals disaster the next year. Johnson in 2006 had 416 carries. So, what more proof do we need? A lot more. The problem with 400 carries is that it's an arbitrary number. Why is that significantly worse than 395 or 380 or 360? What if a back has 330 carries and 80 catches? Do catches not count (you get tackled on them pretty hard sometimes, too). Nostradamuses using this number to predict doom say the punishment for such profligate usage will be either injury or performance decline. Johnson was 27 and in his physical prime when Packers linebacker A.J. Hawk rolled over his foot while pulling him down after a reception (remember, we're not even supposed to count those). Are we to assume that if L.J. had 350 carries, he would have walked back to the huddle? Johnson's injury is more reasonably attributed to the laws of physics and the human anatomy. Remember that there aren't 50 guys in the history of the NFL who have 1,500 carries. Playing running back is like getting into 20 or 30 car crashes in a day, dangerous even in a helmet and pads. The argument seems to hold up better when you look at the poor year that Johnson was having. In 2006, he averaged 4.3 yards per carry. In 2007 at the time of his injury, his per-carry average dipped to 3.5, which is awful. But Johnson averaged 3.5 yards per carry in October 2006, too. He's always been a second-half-of-the-year player (4.5 per carry in '06, 5.2 in '05). Even if we accept that his performance in 2007 would have remained appreciably worse, that can be simply due to regression to the mean. Players who pile up lots of carries generally are having very good years and you have to fight gravity fiercely to be very good, doubly so two years in a row. There are not going to be any 400-carry backs this year. In 2006, seven backs averaged over 20 carries per game. Due to injury, ineffectiveness and RB committees now rampant in the NFL, just two backs average 20-plus carries in '07: Willie Parker (league-leader with 257 through 11 games) and Edgerrin James (221). Many backs have emerged from relative obscurity of late to be viable options. Let's look at them, as well as some big-name backs who have struggled. Buy Ryan Grant, Packers: Averaging more than 20 carries the last five weeks for the high-scoring Packers with 18 catches. Grant has some explosion and is a decisive runner who should be able to handle goal-line duty at 220 pounds. Broncos Running Backs: Explosive fire-plug Andre Hall has a high-ankle sprain after his great all-purpose day in Chicago. Undrafted rookie Selvin Young and veteran Travis Henry are battling sore knees and a suspension is still possible for Henry, who insists he'll start Week 13 if the commissioner doesn't step in first. Hold LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers: When they give you the ball for 10,000 career yards, your team should be eying a replacement. Tomlinson's per-carry average is down a full yard and the end, while not at hand, is definitely in sight. Reggie Bush, Saints: Can't run between the tackles (3.6 yards per carry); can't get the ball in space as a receiver (5.8 yards per catch). He's not getting any better. Kolby Smith, Chiefs: The Priest Holmes sideshow is over. Smith has size and speed, but Brodie Croyle is a disaster at QB and the Raiders' front seven is softer than John Madden's midsection. Earnest Graham, Bucs: If Jeff Garcia (back) is active, Graham will be productive. All bets are off with Bruce Gradkowski under center. Sell Rudi Johnson, Bengals: His "big" Week 11 still was well under 4.0 per carry. Only the all-time talents have extended NFL careers and Johnson was always, at best, merely workmanlike. Frank Gore, 49ers: Journeyman Trent Dilfer is a big upgrade over Abominable Alex Smith. But the Niners keep threatening to put Smith (elbow) back in there. OK, stop, we'll give you whatever you want!
November 26
By David Ferris If Larry Fitzgerald were a little faster, we'd be looking at one of the five best receivers of all time, potentially. Instead he'll have to settle for multiple Pro Bowls and a good run at the Hall of Fame. Competitive, smart, strong enough to beat anyone's jam, Velcro hands. It's almost an insult to Fitzgerald if we compare him to running mate Anquan Boldin, because Fitzgerald's ceiling is considerably higher. And amazingly enough, Fitzgerald is just 24. Maybe the Eagles' offense really is better with A.J. Feeley in the saddle. It's time to start asking the question, anyway; he saved Philly's bacon in the win over Miami, and he scared the dickens out of the Patriots on Sunday night. Of course the bigger reason Donovan McNabb probably won't be back next year is Kevin Kolb, but anyone tied to Philadelphia fantasy options now has to be curious about No. 14. Don't get touchy, McNabb fans, but the right call for now looks like Feeley. Time to admit the Lions were smoke all the way, a turnover-lucky team that was due to falter when the flaws of the offense were magnified against better competition. Mike Martz and Jon Kitna can look good for weeks at a time, but eventually Martz is going to get lax in his protections and Kitna is going to make throws into coverage that his arm can't cash. No one wants to admit it, but Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson are not playing in a system that maximizes their talent, at least not in 2007 they're not. More of that blame belongs on Kitna, who can't challenge the intermediate and deep portions of the field consistently enough. Slap LenDale White on a milk carton and take note of the expiration date; his usefulness has floated away. He looks sluggish and indecisive of late, and the slumping Tennessee defense isn't helping, forcing the Titans to play from behind more often. The big day for the San Diego passing game was more about the leaks in the Baltimore pass defense and less about Philip Rivers turning the corner. The design and focus of the Ravens' defense is downright puzzling at times – this unit appears dead-set on stopping the run, unconcerned about the opponent throwing for a bushel of yards. You can't worry about the rabbits, men – the elephants will kill you. Quick Hits: I was plenty impressed with Kolby Smith's starting debut, but at this point I'd start a house plant against the Oakland front seven ... I have no data to back this up, but I'll hunt it down during the week – we're seeing the worst short-kicking year in recent memory. The quality of the kicking in this league had skyrocketed over the last 10-15 years, but the excitement is back into the short boot, and no one is safe from the epidemic ... Fantasy owners have a simple message for Travis Henry: Don't go away mad, just go away. The Broncos don't really need Henry anyway, given the collective skill sets offered by Selvin Young (runs with an attitude, in a good way) and Andre Hall (fastest man on the team, great vision too) . . . The crux of Kurt Warner comes 3-4 seconds after the snap. When he's decisive and the ball comes out quickly and crisply, the Cardinals are in great shape and explosive plays happen regularly. But the longer Warner holds the ball, the more likely we are to see a breakdown; he's never been adept at sliding to open areas or making decisions with bodies around him in the pocket, even dating back to his MVP days. His heavy stat line against the Niners and the fateful final snap of the game perfectly characterize the pros and cons you get with Warner ... Surprise onside kicks are clicking around 75 percent of the time this year, so why aren't they used more? I guess after a certain point they wouldn't be surprises anymore, but some coaches are leaving bullets in the chamber ... If it were easy to execute the "just don't kick to Devin Hester" strategy, every coach in the league would roll with it. Squib kicks, coffin corner punts, cohesiveness on the coverage teams, it's harder than it looks. It's not just a door-handle answer you flip over at the hotel ... I'm stunned that Reggie Williams continues to run away from defensive backs every couple of weeks. He was slower than dial-up over the first three years of his career ... Trent Dilfer really shouldn't be an NFL quarterback these days, but at least he's a step up from shell-shocked Alex Smith. You can make the same comparison with Vinny Testaverde and David Carr (who probably won't be in the league much longer).
November 20
By Michael Salfino Thanksgiving. The turkey is in the oven. The fantasy pots are on the table, waiting to be won. The clearest path to the Bill Winkenbach* Trophy is Tom Brady and Randy Moss, with Tony Romo and Terrell Owens close behind. Running backs? We don’t need no stinkin’ running backs! *Winkenbach is given credit for inventing fantasy football and creating the GOPPPL (Greater Oakland Professional Pigskin Prognosticators League) as a part-owner of the Raiders in 1962. Upgrade Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: This is just silly. I’d say he’s exceeded projections with 38 TD passes already (on pace for, hold on to your hat, 61). He throws a TD every nine attempts. It doesn’t seem mathematically possible for him to toss less than three in a week. Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: Remember when those reports surfaced that he’d be cut? The Moss owners in your league couldn’t have planted it any better, because that got even guys like me who were bullish all summer off him to the point where he was there 40 picks into almost every draft. I was on the radio this week and in assessing the Patriots in a historical fantasy context, I opined that Brady was Manning 2004, Wes Welker the 2004 Brandon Stokley and Moss the 2004 Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne put together. Moss, by the way, is on pace for 26 TD catches. Gulp! I guess that could beat us, after all. Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys: Nine TD catches the last five weeks. Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys: Now we’re into the mere mortals, but just barely. Romo is probably going to throw 40 TD passes. He also might get Terry Glenn back. The caveat is that the Cowboys seem intent on running more when it really matters than the 2004 Colts or 2007 Patriots. For example, they run on 59 percent of red zone plays, the Patriots 54 percent. But just 28 percent of Patriots red-zone TDs are on the ground, compared to 43 percent for the Cowboys. A stronger Dallas commitment to generating TDs through the air when closer to paydirt is all that’s stopping Romo from being a truly monster fantasy player. Michael Bush, RB, Raiders: Sneak him on to your roster, like I advised with the Bengals' Chris Henry a couple of weeks ago. He’s reportedly about to be activated. If Daunte Culpepper looks anything like last week, the Raiders' offense should be average even against a tough schedule. Their line is good. In a RB-weak year, the 6-2, 240-pound Bush can be a sneaky Thanksgiving pickup who pays big dividends for a team loaded at QB and WR but thin at RB. Remember, Bush was viewed by many to be more talented than the Vikings' Adrian Peterson before breaking his leg at Louisville in 2006. (UPDATE: Bush was kept on the PUP list and thus can't play this year even though the coaching staff felt he was healthy enough to play. The reported reason is that they didn't want to release LaMont Jordan and have him picked up by an AFC West team. Al Davis is now officially the crazy uncle at the Thanksgiving table.) No Change Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos: Javon Walker might be back this week, but Marshall has asserted himself as a viable weapon and now will get more favorable matchups with coverages tending to roll in the direction of Walker, who may be limited to decoy duty given the severity of his knee injury. Jay Cutler is light years better than Vince Young and Matt Leinart. Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts: We have to see him suit up to upgrade him. But there are definitive reports that his injury is not chronic and that he should be back at full strength sometime in early December. I’m bullish on his chances of becoming a No. 1 fantasy WR again in time for our playoffs weeks 15 and 16. Downgrade Shaun Alexander, RB, Seahawks: The coach doesn’t want to play you when he places strict conditions, such as Holmgren’s edict that Alexander doesn’t suit up until he practices fully Wednesday, Thursday AND Friday. We can’t blame him, as the Seahawks have found their mojo with Hasselbeck in the shotgun and Maurice Morris providing a dual threat at RB. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: He’s week-to-week and must wear a knee brace when he returns. Even if we accept that the torn knee ligament can’t get worse by playing, why take the chance that he could suffer another injury by compensating in any way for that one? Don’t let him be humbled in any way if he’s hampered. Let him continue to think he’s unstoppable. Plus, Chester Taylor is obviously quite capable and building some trade value. Willie Parker, RB, Steelers: I’d rather own Jamal Lewis of the Browns right now. The Steelers have gone back and forth on giving Parker goal-line carries. Now, as the injuries (hip, knee) mount, he can’t even sustain any explosiveness between the 20s.
By Michael Salfino Do three-and-out stats allow us to better assess offensive and defensive dominance? If so, the teams with the most net three-and-out possessions (after subtracting possessions without a first down from those of the opponents) should win lots of games. The teams in negative territory should be big losers. And these three-and-out percentages should also correlate neatly to points per game for and against. Our top 10 net three-and-out teams win 58 percent of games; the bottom 10 win 49 percent. Last year's results weren't much better. Bottom line: there are at least 15 team stats that beat three-and-out possessions when measured the same way. Do the offenses that have the lowest percentage of three-and-out possessions score the most points and defenses with the highest allow the least? Offenses with the lowest percentages of three-and-outs: Patriots (25 percent), Broncos (27), Colts (28), Seahawks (29), Vikings (30) and Bengals (30). Assessing them is tricky, because the Patriots skew the average with their gluttonous 41 points per game. The NFL average, though, is about 21 PPG. The Broncos and the Vikings are below that; the Colts, the Seahawks and the Bengals significantly above it. I believe the Broncos' points per game is slightly deceiving, because they scored just seven points in Detroit after losing QB Jay Cutler early. The worst three-and-out offenses should score well below average. The bad teams here are the 49ers (48 percent of possessions), the Chiefs (43), the Cardinals (41), the Panthers (41), the Falcons (40) and the Bills (39). They are 32nd, 30th, 12th, 27th, 31st and 28th in points per game. That boosts confidence in the relevance of three-and-outs. Looking at the other side of the ball, the defenses that do not allow a first down on the highest percentage of possessions are the Steelers (47 percent), the Ravens (42), the Bears (41), the Titans (41), the Cardinals (41), the Panthers (41), the Bucs (40) the and Rams (40). The Cardinals and the Rams have benefited from playing the historically inept Niners (twice already for the Rams). Pittsburgh has allowed the fewest points per game. The Ravens are 14th, but have been done in a lot by their turnover-prone offense. But the Bears and the Rams are 17th and 28th. The Panthers and the Cardinals 15th and 20th. If these teams are so good at getting offenses off the field, why do they allow so many points? Big plays? Poor red-zone defense? We'll seek answers in future columns. The worst three-and-out defenses are the Jets (24 percent), the Chargers (26), the Bills (28), the Broncos (29), the Bengals (30), the Saints (30). Only one of these teams, the Chargers, is ranked higher than 20th in points allowed. So, again, the correlation seems better with the worst teams than with the best. Let's see if we can mine this data to make some player recommendations. Buy Broncos Passing Game: All the running backs are dinged up and Travis Henry dodges drug tests better now than linebackers. Javon Walker is due back Sunday. Mike Shanahan thinks Brandon Stokley is an ace slot receiver. Brandon Marshall has freakish athleticism. Most important, Jay Cutler can make all the throws in eye-popping fashion. He's the big sleeper QB on the board right now. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts: It's been sad of late, seeing Manning toil with no weapons. But Marvin Harrison really, most sincerely should be back Dec. 2 (cross GM Bill Polian's heart). Dallas Clark (concussion) should shake off the cobwebs by then. The matchups aren't great, but Manning doesn't worry about matchups when the Indy guns are loaded. T.J. Hackett, WR, Seahawks: Shaun Alexander's absence has liberated Mike Holmgren into becoming pass-happy again, turning Hackett into a top 25 receiver and Matt Hasselbeck into a top 5 QB. Hold Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns: This once-boring Brown finds paydirt (fourth in rushing TDs). Cleveland averages more than 30 points per game with Derek Anderson at QB, and the remaining schedule has a bunch of easy marks. Sell Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals: Kurt Warner is like the one-armed drummer with those backward handoffs when James runs right. Sorry, it doesn't quite work. The result: too many third-and-longs followed by punts. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: He's been productive of late and scored a TD last week, but the Chiefs' offense is a lost cause with inexperienced Brodie Croyle at QB and Larry Johnson likely out until 2008.
November 19
By David Ferris I recall a respected fantasy football mind shying away from Ben Roethlisberger this summer because Pittsburgh's new coach Mike Tomlin "was a defensive guy." Throw arguments like that in the trash can, friends. Head coaches in the NFL, at least the good ones, work from personnel to scheme, not the other way around. Look around the league – Bill Belichick's Patriots have the league's most ridiculous offense; Mike Holmgren's run-heavy Seahawks offense is now a pass-heavy offense; Tomlin and the Steelers have morphed into a pass-heavy group. Show me a successful professional head coach and I'll show you someone who's going to be adaptable. Make it four monster games in a row for Terrell Owens, and nine touchdowns in five weeks. He's on top of his game, no question about it, and yet, the time might be ideal to try to move him. We're still talking about a high-maintenance physical receiver who's played just two full seasons out of eight, and you should be able to name your price after his four-score undressing of Washington on Sunday. Even the pending game with the Jets on Thursday could come into your thinking – sell your trading partner on the upside of spending the holidays with a little T.O. Be clear on the message here – I'm not saying you should give Owens away or make a deal just to make a deal. But it's always a good idea to at least explore a trade when a name player has this type of performance, and you can bet a lot of Adrian Peterson backers wish they had gone down this path two weeks ago. If you can still get Earnest Graham for a mild cost, cut the check. He's clearly the main horse in the Tampa Bay offense, a runner with vision, hands and surprising power, and the Bucs finish the year with a very cushy schedule against the run. Graham has a good chance to keep this job next year, even when Cadillac Williams returns to the mix, and I see enough talent for Graham to be a dependable No. 2 fantasy back for the final six games. Devard Darling's big day in Baltimore (4-107, touchdown) probably was a result of his scout-team work with Kyle Boller over anything else. I'm not going to chase these numbers, not with the tricky schedule the Ravens have on tap. Everyone throws on the Browns, anyway – invite them to your backyard on Thursday and you'll have 400 yards passing and six TDs before the turkey pops. Is there any logical explanation why the Jets didn't use David Harris much in the first seven games of the year? Tie that to the way Jonathan Vilma was miscast over the last two years, the slow hook on Chad Pennington, and the odd usage of Leon Washington, and it makes me wonder why the Jets are so often behind the curve with their own personnel. They have these guys every day – why do so many pictures develop so slowly? Quick Hits: If you have the NFL Sunday Ticket package, get to know the Red Zone Channel. I can't justly say how awesome that concept is on game day . . . Two months ago LaMont Jordan was living large as the Raiders feature back. Now there's talk of him getting released if Michael Bush makes it to the active roster next week . . . In anything short of a 14-team league, you should strongly consider dropping Shaun Alexander outright. Mike Holmgren says he's not going to play Alexander until the back can get through a full week of practice, and the Seattle offense has done just fine without Alexander (mostly because of Matt Hasselbeck, but Maurice Morris has been solid, too) . . . It's a good thing Bill Belichick is such good friends with Dick Jauron. I thought the Patriots might, you know, try to run up the score or something . . . The Bengals face a bunch of weak rushing defenses to end the year, but I see anything that can save Rudi Johnson. If anyone is going to finish the season strongly there, it's Kenny Watson ... Daunte Culpepper has more left in the tank than most realize, but the Dolphins and the Raiders have set him up to fail the last two seasons. I'd still take him in the right situation ... It's not all Frank Gore's fault in San Francisco, but if you can't dial him up with confidence against the Rams (15 carries, 32 yards), when can you use him? ... I don't expect the Dolphins to give Ricky Williams much work down the stretch, but Cam Cameron has dropped a number of curveballs in his rookie season as head coach, so I guess you never know. Picking this week to start rookie quarterback John Beck – at Philadelphia, with Pittsburgh in waiting – was certainly an odd decision ... If you can understand why Byron Leftwich gets some good press just about every summer, please explain it to me. All I see is a painfully slow release, terrible pocket awareness and spotty downfield accuracy. Get out the list of quarterbacks who can't play; it's time to make another entry.
November 17
Quarterback
By David Ferris Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (hip) wasn't held back this week and will go against the Jets. Jaguars QB David Garrard (ankle) is ready to return, taking first-team reps all week. Falcons QB Byron Leftwich (ankle) got plenty of work this week and might start against Tampa Bay, though the decision hasn't been made yet. Joey Harrington, off a two-game winning streak, is the fallback. Ravens QB Steve McNair (shoulder) won't play the next 2-3 weeks and might wind up missing the rest of the year. QB Kyle Boller has some sleeper value against Cleveland. 49ers QB Alex Smith (forearm/shoulder) is healthy enough to be the backup for Sunday's game with the Rams, but Trent Dilfer will start. Panthers QB Vinny Testaverde (Achilles) was able to practice at the end of the week and will start against Green Bay. Bears QB Brian Griese (shoulder) will be the No. 2 in Seattle behind Rex Grossman. Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (knee) didn't practice the last two days, although Andy Reid said "it's not that bad" and the team expects Westbrook to play against Miami. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has a partial tear of his lateral collateral ligament and is out indefinitely. Chester Taylor, a solid runner but no superstar, gets the call in his place, with a good matchup on tap this week against Oakland. Bills RB Marshawn Lynch (ankle) didn't practice all week and isn't expected to go against New England. Rookie RB Dwayne Wright and veteran Anthony Thomas are expected to split the work in his absence. Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander (knee/ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday, so Maurice Morris gets the call against Seattle. Titans RB LenDale White (toe) isn't on the injury report, so he should get a full load of carries at Denver on Monday. 49ers RB Frank Gore (ankle) missed some of the work this week but should start against the Rams. He didn't look bad Monday, one of the few Niners you can say that about. Steelers RB Willie Parker (hip) got back in the flow the last two days and is fine for the Jets. Chiefs RB Larry Johnson (foot) remains out indefinitely and won't dress in Week 11. Priest Holmes starts in his place, with Kolby Smith also in the mix. Falcons RB Jerious Norwood (ankle) isn't 100 percent but will probably see some work Sunday as Warrick Dunn's backup. Broncos RB Travis Henry has a partial PCL tear and is very questionable for Monday's game with Tennessee. You simply can't use him here. Selvin Young is a better back at this point, anyway. Panthers RB DeShaun Foster (toe) worked the last two days and should get his normal share of action against the Packers. Lions RB Kevin Jones (foot) isn't 100 percent but he's not on the injury report either. I'd probably try to find a different option anyway for Week 11. Buccaneers RB Earnest Graham (ankle) was limited all week but still should get a decent share of work Sunday against Atlanta. Double-check his status before kickoff, but if you were planning on starting him anyway, I'd probably stick with him, even with RB Michael Pittman (leg) back this week as the No. 2. Texans RB Ahman Green (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game with New Orleans and is no sure thing for the upcoming weeks. Ron Dayne and Joe Echemandu get pressed into duty with Green out. Dolphins RB Ricky Williams will start practicing with the club next week and may dress in Week 12. Giants RB Derrick Ward (ankle/groin) isn't ready to return yet. Texans WR Andre Johnson (knee) is finally ready to go after missing two months. He's getting a good matchup, too, against the spotty New Orleans secondary. Panthers WR Steve Smith (shin) missed the full week of practice and is a game-time decision for Sunday's game at Green Bay. It's sad to say this but you simply can't use Smith this week for fantasy, that's how bad it's gotten with his situation. Bengals WR Chad Johnson missed the last two days of work because of a skin condition, but he's fully expected to start against Arizona. Seahawks WR Deion Branch (foot) got back to work this week and should start against Chicago, though I'm not ready to trust him as a fantasy play. Keep rolling with D.J. Hackett and Bobby Engram if you need them. Colts WR Marvin Harrison (knee) didn't work this week and probably won't play against Kansas City. You need someone else in your lineup. WR Anthony Gonzalez (thumb) is out indefinitely. Rams WR Torry Holt (knee) did full work the last two days and looks fine. WR Isaac Bruce (hamstring) is probable. Giants WR Plaxico Burress (ankle) was rested through the practice week and is listed as questionable, though he's expected to go at Detroit. It's interesting to note that New York didn't run a lot of deeper routes with Burress last week, a clear sign that they know the star wideout is limited these days. Burress has just 81 yards in his last three games. Chargers WR Vincent Jackson (abdomen) is very iffy for Sunday's game with Jacksonville. Jets WR Laveranues Coles (post-concussion) was fine at practice this week and will go against the Steelers. Redskins WR Santana Moss (heel) did some work Friday after missing the two prior days but please, friends, don't use this guy. As for James Thrash (ankle), he's very iffy for Week 11. Patriots WR Wes Welker was limited the last two days at practice due to a "team decision." Gotta love those Patriots. With a night game on tap, I can't blame you for wanting a safer Week 11 option, and that's a shame because Welker has been so productive this year. Broncos WR Javon Walker (knee) might be able to play in Week 12 but he's not going to dress Monday against Tennessee. Vikings WR Sidney Rice (hamstring) looks like a likely scratch for Sunday. Ravens WR Demetrius Williams (ankle) won't go against Cleveland, which gives a mild push up for Mark Clayton. Cowboys WR Terry Glenn (knee) won't be ready to return until December. Colts TE Dallas Clark (post-concussion) had a full work week and is fine to go against the Chiefs. Ravens TE Todd Heap (hamstring) missed the full practice week and can't be used in Week 11, though the club hasn't ruled him out yet. Packers TE Donald Lee (hip) had a full workout Friday and will go this weekend, but TE Bubba Franks (knee) isn't ready to play yet. Bills TE Robert Royal (post-concussion) is no sure thing for Sunday night's game against New England. Jaguars PK Josh Scobee (quad) is expected to return this week, if you're out of options there. Colts DE Dwight Freeney (foot) was placed on injured reserve Wednesday, a major blow to the Indy pass rush. The team added Simeon Rice the same day, but that's a significant step down these days. Titans DT Albert Haynesworth (hamstring) should be able to go Monday, according to head coach Jeff Fisher. The Dolphins have ruled out LB Zach Thomas (migraine) for another week. Chargers LB Shawne Merriman (ankle) is probable and should go at Jacksonville. Ravens CB Chris McAlister (knee) had a reasonable chance to return this week, but CB Samari Rolle (illness) is out again. All of the main elements of the Browns passing game should be started in Baltimore. Redskins safety Sean Taylor (knee) is expected to miss multiple weeks. Colts S Bob Sanders practiced Friday and should play against the Chiefs.
November 15
By David Ferris Below are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). * = check status Quarterback
By Michael Salfino The playoff stretch has arrived in this fantasy football season, as most leagues feature key divisional matchups that ultimately will decide who gets a ticket to the championship dance. Upgrade Jesse Chatman, RB, Dolphins: More evidence that he's a solid, versatile back after last week's game against the Bills (149 total yards). Rookie QB John Beck now starts. But that's not as detrimental as it usually would be, because Cleo Lemon was far from polished; plus Beck is 26 and reported to be more NFL-ready than most rookies. Ricky Williams' reinstatement is mere noise; he's weeks away from playing if Cam Cameron goes back on his prior statements and takes him back. Priest Holmes, RB, Chiefs: So much for Kolby Smith (last week's upgrade). Holmes showed very little power and explosiveness and looked like a 34-year-old back. But he's reportedly in line for 25 touches again this week. I seriously doubt he does anything with them, but getting the ball is the necessary first step toward fantasy production. Larry Johnson's status is unclear. All the injury gurus are claiming to have inside info, but when that turns out to be wrong they just blame the source, who is never even a doctor. Chester Taylor, RB, Vikings: Adrian Peterson found out why it's so difficult to have a Hall of Fame career. You have to be great and stay healthy, the latter being almost as difficult to achieve as the former. Peterson is out at least a week with a torn knee ligament that is reportedly no big deal. Huh? Believe that when you see it. Taylor has a great matchup this week versus Oakland, but is handicapped by that pop-gun passing game. After this week, who knows. Rams Passing Game: It's easier to pass block than to run block. So injuries on the offensive line hurt the latter more. Marc Bulger is fully healthy after suffering through cracked ribs much of the first half. He ripped the Saints last week, but all QBs do that. Torry Holt is still struggling with a bum knee but on pace for almost 100 catches. The schedule is not fantasy friendly. But the only possible bad weather game is at Cincy, and weather there is the only thing that will keep Bulger from piling up points. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: There's not going to be any consistent explosion here given the line troubles (see above). But must of us RB beggars can't be choosers. Jackson's bulging disc could sideline him any time. But he likely gets some easy scoring opportunities if Bulger and the receivers stay healthy. Selvin Young, RB, Broncos: Take off the stethoscope, pick up the attaches and the legal briefs. Travis Henry's appeal of his positive marijuana test and the year suspension that follows it is on Friday. He has hair samples and lie-detector tests. But Johnny Cochran couldn't get him out of this mess. Expect a suspension beginning Week 12 and for Young to be an impact runner for the balance of '07 and possibly beyond. D.J. Hackett, WR. Seahawks: Looks like a starter in Seattle's base, three-WR offense, even when Deion Branch gets back on the field. The odd man out is probably going to be Nate Burleson, who still will get chances on third down. The Seahawks say they're going to be more committed to the passing game with Shaun Alexander finished and Maurice Morris too small to move the pile. No Change Jeremy Shockey, TE, Giants: The Cowboys took him out of the game in the second half last week. He's a good player, but, like most tight ends, needs a solid supporting cast to distract defenses. The rest of the Giants' passing game is in decline (see below). Cedric Benson, RB, Bears: The late TD might give you a selling opportunity. Averaging less than three yards per carry against the Raiders is pathetic. Benson talks a big game but has never delivered. The move back to Rex Grossman would hurt him, too. Rex can't move the chains as well as Griese (who can't do it well himself). Downgrade Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills: High ankle sprains linger for months, not weeks. Lynch is out this week and probably will struggle when he does return, as he's lacked explosiveness for most of 2007 even with good wheels. Dwayne Wright and Anthony Thomas likely share carries in Lynch's absence. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Chiefs: The Chiefs say their plan is to load up for next year and that begins by developing Brodie Croyle at QB. I see nothing in Croyle. It's very likely he's a big step down from even Damon Huard, short-term. This will significantly cut into Gonzalez's catch-and-yardage production. And he won't make that up with TDs, which will be in short supply with Croyle at the Chiefs helm and LJ in sweats. Kevin Jones, RB, Lions: He needs four or five days of recovery from last year's major foot surgery. That means that if he plays this week, he's out for the key Thanksgiving Day game versus the Packers. So, the Lions appear set to rest him Sunday against the Giants. Bump up Jon Kitna and Roy Williams this week. Jones' foot was barking last week at Arizona, which is why the Lions threw so much. Jones is no longer a reliable fantasy option given the high, late-season stakes. Giants Passing Game: Big Blue and Eli Manning average less than 6.0 yards per passing attempt (YPA), 24th in the NFL. YPA is the first thing you look for when projecting fantasy points in the passing game. Manning has defied gravity with his fantasy production thus far, but the stage is set for another second-half collapse. Plaxico Burress' ankle injury is a big factor in these struggles. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: Hope you sold (as I advised) after that miracle Vinny Testaverde TD pass against the Cardinals. If you didn't, you're beat. Keep hoping you hit the lottery again, but lower your expecations. Smith, given his rotten QB play, is a No. 3 fantasy wide receiver. Jake Delhomme was never given enough credit for Smith's productivity.
November 13
By Michael Salfino Coaches are spending more time on red-zone offense, trying to crack the code and maximize point production with play-calling proficiency.
November 12
By David Ferris Brian Billick is forgetting one of the cardinal rules with fading veterans – it's better to be a year early than a year late. Steve McNair clearly can't play anymore, but Billick apparently was the last to get that memo. You wonder why the Ravens signed Kyle Boller to a contract extension in the offseason if they're so reluctant to play him. Perhaps a QB change is coming this week, but by now the horse – and the season – is already out of the barn. The Cardinals haven't always used Larry Fitzgerald in their goal-line package, which is just silly – why take your most talented playmaker off the field in that key area? They didn't make the mistake against the Lions, though, and to the surprise of no one, Fitzgerald scored a couple of touchdowns. When Fitzgerald is healthy and on his game, there is no adequate defense for him. Keep in mind he's still just 24, and start dreaming of the gigantic payoff that may be yet to come. J.P. Losman's momentum took a hit at Miami – he had plenty of time to make downfield connections, but his throws were inaccurate for most of the day. Things won't get better against New England next week, as Bill Belichick's defense has owned him from the moment he entered the league. And you can be sure the Patriots won't let Lee Evans beat them – he's been a nonfactor in the last three meetings (43 total yards). After watching Josh McCown stink it up yet again Sunday, there seems to be little reason for the Raiders to keep rookie JaMarcus Russell out the entire season, even with his late signing. Two upcoming games on the road might not make sense for a switch – at Minnesota, at Kansas City – but the home game with Denver on Dec. 2 could be the right time to pass the baton. Of course top-secret head coach Lane Kiffin has the keys on this decision, and he'd rather give out his PIN number than share information with the fantasy football public. If you needed more proof that Cedric Benson doesn't have it, you got it at Oakland. Benson was handed 29 carries against the league's worst rushing defense and managed just 76 yards, with a long of nine. That's a shameful 2.6 yards a pop. Quick Hits Don't look now, but Plaxico Burress has just 81 yards in his last three games. And hey Troy Aikman, it's "Plaxico" and not "Plexico." . . . The Redskins didn't have a single touchdown from a wideout until James Thrash got in against Philadelphia on Sunday. Think about that for a second . . . You can add Joe Gibbs to the list of coaches who don't understand the 2-point conversion. At the pro level, you never go for the deuce until the game situation is clearly defined in the fourth period. The Gibbs reputation has taken quite a hit since he unretired and rejoined the Redskins in 2004 . . . The sooner Travis Henry steps aside and Selvin Young takes over for good, the better off everyone will be. And yes, that includes the Broncos . . . Roy Williams is still capable of dominating when the Lions rediscover their pass-happy playbook. He had two scores at Arizona and lost a third one on a penalty . . . As for Calvin Johnson, the trend is downward. He was targeted just five times at Arizona; perhaps Jon Kitna was hesitant to look his way after Johnson dropped a sure touchdown in the first period . . . Mark Clayton had a 47-yard hookup with Kyle Boller late Sunday, capping his 107-yard afternoon. If Boller gets the call next week against Cleveland, Clayton becomes a solid flex play . . . At this point there's nothing Rudi Johnson can do on a football field that Kenny Watson can't do better . . . If Chris Henry keeps his nose clean for two months, he's got an excellent chance to out-produce Chad Johnson for the remainder of the season . . . I'll admit that I bought into the improvement of the Giants' defense, but Tony Romo ripped up my case with a dominant afternoon. Romo's monster extension was money well-spent by Jerry Jones . . . Marty Booker has entered the witness protection program since Chris Chambers left town. Cut bait . . . Dwayne Bowe's big day was just the latest piece of evidence – there's no reason to fear the Denver secondary. Accept the reality of the season, and let go of the preconceived notions you held in August.
November 8
By David Ferris Below are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL. * = check status Quarterback
By Michael Salfino Week 10 (can you believe it?) Stock Watch with a little self-auditing, because we learn much more from our mistakes than from our successes. Upgrade Seahawks Passing Game: Mike Holmgren said he's going to ditch the "2.5 yards and a cloud of synthetic dirt" running game in favor of at least a 60-40 passing split. This all but guarantees very big numbers for Matt Hasselbeck and his receivers going forward. I peg Hasselbeck as a championship difference maker in most formats. The receiving picture is more complicated. Deion Branch is sure to start when healthy. There will be enough looks for the other guys, but one of Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson and D.J. Hackett will be off the field most times on first and second down. The guess here is that it will be Hackett. Engram gets little respect despite the huge Week 9 (14 catches, 139 yards), but Hasselbeck says he looks Engram's way most plays. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: Something I've gotten right from the start. Roethlisberger is really good and is just having a golden year in converting so many red-zone opportunities into scoring strikes. The Steelers used to lean on their running game in close; now, it's just a decoy. The environment is better for Hasselbeck (who has no running game), but Roethlisberger is in the tier just below. I usually love moving guys coming off five-TD passing games right before the deadline. But put a hold on Big Ben. Saints Passing Game: A couple of weeks ago in the piece focusing on an expert, midseason redraft league, I noted where Drew Brees was drafted and implied I'd rather have Jon Kitna and Roethlisbeger (players drafted around him). Brees is the better play than even Big Ben because the Saints will have to throw more. Truth is, I didn't trust his targets. But Marques Colston has made adjustments that I thought would require an offseason. He's now a much better bet than the receivers drafted around him two weeks ago: Kevin Curtis and Santana Moss. I liked David Patten as a pocket pick in August, but, let's face it, I would have cut him long ago by now (and did). Chris Henry, WR, Bengals: It's probably too late if you haven't rostered him already. I have him and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and I'm desperately trying to trade T.J. so I can properly leverage Henry (not a fan of playing two receivers from the same team when my other receivers are quality). Everything football-related on Henry's resume says he's going to be a monster right away. And the environment there is great, too: bad defense, very talented QB and other quality receivers to ensure that matchups are almost always in Henry's favor. Kolby Smith/Priest Holmes, RBs, Chiefs: Everyone is likely to go Holmes here. But the price is going to be steep for a guy who's 34 and likely limited to an even timeshare at best. Smith is the guy who can seize the majority of the workload with Larry Johnson likely out the season. He's got perfect size (5-11, 218) and speed (4.51 40-yard dash at the combine). The saving grace for Johnson owners is that Smith is very likely available and that Holmes is providing cover for a sneak free-agent attack. Adrian Peterson, Vikings, RB: Off his last monster game, I said to sell with the caveat that "he's from the Planet Krypton, so sell high." That looked sound in Weeks 7 and 8, when he didn't get over 70 yards and had one TD. But the outburst last week (record-setting 296 yards and three TDs) means that you probably couldn't have gotten enough. I will say this about Peterson: he's the guy you make the playoffs with, but will be hard-pressed to win the championship with. The reason is that he's too reliant on huge runs given the terrible QB play around him (Brooks Bollinger?). The Vikings have the fewest red-zone trips in football, 12, and that's a bad indicator for any fantasy RB. Earnest Graham, Bucs, RB: I bought Michael Bennett hook, line and sinker. The mistake here was assuming a guy that was a name (former No. 1 draft pick) would start when acquired via a trade. Clearly, he was brought in for depth behind Graham (who had a 46 yards on 19 touches in the game before Bennett was acquired). The thing was, I liked Graham and wrote that just a week before. But then I went for the shiny bait. No change Donald Lee, Packers, TE: He's making some big plays but hasn't had a game with more than four receptions, and Favre doesn't play with the consistency needed to sustain drives. A tight end needs that and also needs for drives to finish near the goal line. Favre's Packer offense right now is Bomb or Bust. Vernon Davis, Niners, TE: I put the buy on him when he was still hurt and am glad I did, even though that Alex Smith is back at QB and not showing any hints of ever being a playmaker. Davis is one of the top athletes in the sport, which is saying a lot. Everyone else has stepped back in the Niners' passing offense, leaving Davis as the only legitimate threat. Sidney Rice, Vikings, WR: I'm not remotely tempted by the TD last week, because the Vikings don't have a starting NFL QB on their roster. But I'm very interested beyond 2007 if the Vikings acquire a professional QB like current Jet Chad Pennington, who can be a decent caretaker and make some plays to Rice around Peterson. Downgrade Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals: He had 11 yards on 9 carries versus the Bengals and looked that bad. Kenny Watson will get more work. We instinctively think a guy like Johnson, who's just turned 28 and has a little more than 1,300 carries, has lots of gas in the tank. But only about 50 guys in NFL history have 1,500-plus carries. So Johnson is likely right at the edge of oblivion. Eagles Passing Game: This is a mess right now. Donovan McNabb might get benched not for performance but because the Eagles' season is over and they want to get a peek at rookie Kevin Kolb. Andy Reid must be distracted with both of his sons off to jail on drug convictions. That takes one of the best playcallers in the sport out of the mix. It's time to abandon ship. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: I'd take anything decent right now. Forty or 50 cents on the preseason dollar. The Rams are down to second- and third-string guys across the offensive line. And a bulging disc doesn't sound to me like something you bother playing with when your team is winless in November. Even if he starts remaining games, he's unlikely to be able to finish them.
November 6
By Michael Salfino
November 4
By David Ferris So what's there to like about Philip Rivers, anyway? All I see is negatives: an ugly release point and sloppy mechanics, happy feet in the pocket, quick to ire when things fall apart around him. From time to time Rivers will post decent stats because he's got two elite playmakers on his offense, but there's no doubt in my mind the Chargers made a gross error when they jettisoned Drew Brees and got long-term invested in Rivers. And when you can't get it done against the leaky Minnesota secondary, as Rivers couldn't this week, that's a giant red flag. Success in fantasy football doesn't come on talent evaluation alone – handicapping the system and environment of each team is just as important. Location, location, location. Consider both sides of Sunday's match between Carolina and Tennessee: a poor set-up has torpedoed Steve Smith (one of the five most talented receivers in the game), while a perfect context has made the plodding LenDale White into a must-start fantasy option. Make sure you're constantly evaluating both sides of the coin as you massage your roster and make your decisions. Game of the Century? The Patriots and the Colts didn't even produce the best of the late games Sunday; while the Seahawks and the Browns didn't have as much on the line, they put on a more entertaining show. Cleveland continues to be the most fantasy-friendly destination in the league; Derek Anderson and friends can move the ball on anyone, while the Browns defense can't stop anyone. Pinball scoring ensues, and everyone's happy. Everything I see on the Greg Jennings file, I like: decent hands, excellent speed, very dangerous after the catch. He gets high points for his intelligence as well; Jennings picked up Green Bay's complicated offense quickly last year. Now that his physical issues are behind him, we're seeing Jennings blossom into the team's best vertical threat. We've reached the "take whatever you can get" part of the program with Shaun Alexander. Seattle's best moments Sunday came with Maurice Morris in the game, and the Seahawks' offensive line hasn't been anything special for a year and a half now. Alexander isn't fast enough to outrun anyone these days, or physical enough to consistently move the pile. Quick Hits Maybe Olindo Mare should take his knuckleball to a pitcher's mound. He'll need a new destination soon, because Sean Payton is about ready to pull the plug . . . It might take a new quarterback and a different offensive system, but Vernon Davis isn't too far from stardom . . . The Bills finally opened up the playbook in Week 9 and found a happy result (33 points, 479 yards). Welcome back to the Top 10, Lee Evans . . . There's nothing wrong with Joseph Addai's speed and power, but it's his patience and vision that makes him a dominant player. He's got the best bounce in the AFC . . . Just how bad is Oakland's rushing defense? Ron Dayne trampled this unit for three hours Sunday . . . If I'm the Buccaneers, I take the parking spot away from Cadillac Williams for good after the season. Earnest Graham may never be a star, but he's a better pass-catcher than Williams, and he seems to read blocks better, too . . . Perhaps the Jets can install a tollbooth in the middle of their defense, so opposing runners don't have too easy a time. Clinton Portis did nothing against the rest of the league for two months, but a trip to the Meadowlands paid a lot of bills . . . Reggie Bush has been more productive since the Saints stopped pressing him to be an inside runner . . . Imagine where the Vikings might be today had Brad Childress adjusted to his skill players quicker during the summer . . . Say this for the Chargers, they're doing all they can to make sure suicide pools don't last through the full season . . . It's might be too late for his fantasy public, but Laurence Maroney should have two to three huge games before the year is out . . . Ben Roethlisberger might be the most improved quarterback in the league this year, a story that's still a little under the radar. I suppose it's hard to get noticed when you share a conference with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning . . . Sidney Rice's major breakthrough will come in either 2008 or 2009, depending on when the Vikings get an adequate quarterback.
November 3
By David Ferris Quarterbacks Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck (oblique) did well in practice all week and will start at Cleveland. There's a good chance you'll see a bunch of points there, on both sides. Cardinals QB Kurt Warner (elbow) had three days of full practice and should be fine at Tampa Bay. Panthers QB David Carr (back) was taken off the injury report at the end of the week and looks clear to start at Tennessee. With that, take WR Steve Smith down a bit on your cheat sheets. QB Vinny Testaverde (Achilles) had been limited in practice all week. Bills QB J.P. Losman gets the call against the Bengals, in part because QB Trent Edwards is dealing with a sore wrist. A win (or a big day in a loss) could put Losman in position to start more games. Texans QB Matt Schaub (post-concussion) has been ruled out for Week 9. Sage Rosenfels starts in his place at Oakland. Raiders QB Josh McCown is back in the saddle, as the Raiders have benched Daunte Culpepper. 49ers QB Alex Smith (shoulder) was fine at practice all week and will start at Atlanta. Jaguars QB David Garrard (ankle) is out for Sunday's game at New Orleans, though he's got a shot to return in Week 10. The Jaguars will run a ground-heavy offense so long as Quinn Gray is starting (Jacksonville opened last week's game with 14 straight runs). The Jets have finally moved to QB Kellen Clemens, as you've surely heard by now. The club will try to trade Chad Pennington after the season. Ravens QB Steve McNair (back) is ready to go Monday at Pittsburgh. Falcons QB Joey Harrington gets the start in place of Byron Leftwich (ankle). Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson (finger) did some of the work Friday and should be able to start against San Diego. Brooks Bollinger will back him up; Kelly Holcomb has a neck injury and won't be active. 49ers RB Frank Gore (ankle) was limited in practice all week and is considered a game-time decision Sunday at Atlanta. Maurice Hicks would benefit the most of Gore can't go, with Michael Robinson also in the mix. The 49ers have one of the early games this week, so wait as long as you can before making a call on Gore. Browns RB Jamal Lewis (foot) isn't on the injury report, although the club concedes that he really isn't ready to handle a full load yet. Jason Wright and Jerome Harrison will continue to steal some of the work. Titans RB LenDale White (toe) is listed as probable and should be able to handle his regular workload against Carolina. He'll be backed up by RB Chris Henry, though Henry's status down the road is in question as he's reportedly facing a four-game suspension for a substance violation. Redskins RB Clinton Portis missed Friday's practice per a team decision, but he hasn't been added to the injury report so go ahead and use him at New York if you previously planned to. Broncos RB Travis Henry (ribs) did well in practice this week and should get a heavy share of the work at Detroit. He's listed as probable. One other good bit of news for Henry – the appeal on his pending substance abuse suspension has been pushed back to Nov. 16, which clears him to at least play through Week 10. Patriots RB Sammy Morris (chest) was placed on injured reserve this week, ending his season. It will be interesting to see if the club adds a free agent back in the coming weeks, perhaps Corey Dillon. The Bengals plan to share the work between Rudi Johnson (hamstring) and Kenny Watson (post-concussion) at Buffalo. Both had full practices the last two days. It's a committee in the Texans' backfield, in part because Ahman Green (knee) and Adimchinobe Echemandu (hamstring) are both less than 100 percent. Ron Dayne isn't on the injury report, but you know the risks on that front. Echemandu is an intriguing free agent in deeper leagues, but for Week 9 you're best to avoid all of these backs. Saints RB Reggie Bush (ribs) worked all week without incident and is not on the injury report. Packers RB DeShawn Wynn (shoulder) is out for the year, which means Ryan Grant will get a chance to take the starting job and run with it. Grant had a solid 104 yards Monday at Denver, albeit everyone has run on the Broncos this year. Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew isn't on the injury report this week, so no worries here. Buccaneers RB Michael Pittman (leg) is called a game-time decision, but he's probably a week away. Wide receiver Colts WR Marvin Harrison (knee) didn't practice this week and looks like a game-time decision for Sunday's showdown with the Patriots. Unless you're stuck at the position and have no legitimate options, play it safe and keep Harrison on your bench. Jets WR Laveranues Coles (post-concussion) missed another practice Friday and is unlikely to go against the Redskins. Brad Smith and Justin McCareins will get extra run with Coles out. Texans WR Andre Johnson (knee) did more work this week but nonetheless he's been ruled out for Sunday's game at Oakland. Lions WR Calvin Johnson (back) did full work the last two days and should get his normal snap count against Denver's overrated secondary. Seahawks WR D.J. Hackett practiced all week and will play at Cleveland. The status is murky on Deion Branch (foot), however; he's a game-time decision after missing practice all week. Bengals WR Chad Johnson (ankle) had a full day of practice Friday and looks fine for Week 9. Raiders WR Ronald Curry (foot) missed some reps in practice this week but still expects to play Sunday against Houston. Browns WR Joe Jurevicius is off the injury report, if you wanted to know. He's got a decent chance to do something against Seattle. Eagles WR Reggie Brown (neck) got back to full work Friday and should go in Sunday's game with Dallas. The team isn't sure about Jason Avant (groin, questionable), however. Vikings WR Bobby Wade (knee) took some reps Friday, though he's considered questionable for Sunday. Texans WR Andre Davis (chest) is considered probable. Use him if you need him. Chiefs WR Eddie Kennison (hamstring) worked some this week but probably won't dress against the Packers. Buccaneers WR Ike Hilliard (calf) missed some snaps this week but is expected to play in Week 9. 49ers WR Darrell Jackson (quad) did everything expected of him this week and will go at Atlanta. Cowboys WR Terry Glenn (knee) remains out indefinitely. Vikings WR Troy Williamson will not play with the Vikings this week due to family issues. Broncos WR Rod Smith (hip) has been ruled out for 2007. Tight ends Ravens TE Todd Heap (hamstring) has yet to do much in practice and is a risky play at Pittsburgh on Monday. "It's up in the air," Heap said Friday. Falcons TE Alge Crumpler (knee/ankle) didn't practice this week and looks unlikely to play against the 49ers. Patriots TE Ben Watson (ankle) looks likely to return against the Colts, but you know New England – take nothing for granted until it's confirmed. If healthy, Watson is a big key to this game, as the Tampa 2 is generally vulnerable to a seam-busting tight end. Texans TE Owen Daniels (ankle) was back at work Friday and is considered probable for Sunday. Patriots TE Kyle Brady is free of the injury report, if you need to dig a little deep. Jets TE Chris Baker (back) had a limited week and remains questionable for Week 9. Seahawks TE Marcus Pollard is coming off knee surgery and won't go at Cleveland. Hello, Will Heller. Buccaneers TE Alex Smith (ankle) has a shot to return this week, according to Jon Gruden. Packers TE Bubba Franks (knee) won't go this week, so Donald Lee will be used more than usual. Other positions Texans PK Kris Brown (foot) didn't do much this week and has some risk attached to him for Week 9. He's been managing the soreness in his non-kicking foot for a few weeks now. Jaguars PK Josh Scobee (quad) isn't ready to return yet, so John Carney gets the call at New Orleans. Titans DT Albert Haynesworth (ankle) got in a workout Friday and should go in Week 9. Patriots LB Mike Vrabel (shoulder) is listed as questionable, but it would be a stunner if he doesn't dress against the Colts. Cardinals LB Karlos Dansby (knee) might be able to return at Tampa Bay. He's the best linebacker the club has. Ravens CB Chris McAlister (knee) is doubtful for Monday's game at Pittsburgh, and CB Samari Rolle is questionable. Great news for the Steelers' passing game, which struggled against Baltimore last year. The Packers will start both of their corners despite minor injuries. Charles Woodson has a sore foot, and Al Harris has a tender back. Browns CB Leigh Bodden is expected to play despite a sore ankle.
Below are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). Last Updated: 11/3/07 * = check status Quarterback
November 1
By David Ferris Below are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL. * = check status Quarterback
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