Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Getting into the red zone is more important than what you do there.

There’s a purple zone, if you will, somewhere before the opponent’s 20. I can only guess at where it is, given the lack of good data for other areas of the field. But my best guess is midfield to the defense’s 35-yard line.

This year, the Saints, the Cardinals and the Panthers have the biggest, positive percentage differential between scoring TDs and allowing them on red zone possessions. Those teams are a combined 3-8. Conversely, the Patriots, the Cowboys, the Steelers and the Colts lead the NFL in the difference between the number of red zone trips they’ve made versus allowed. Those teams are a combined 15-1.

The Patriots, the Colts and the Lions lead the NFL with 20 red-zone trips. The Bills and the Saints have the fewest, five, but the Saints have played one less game. The Bills have allowed opposing offenses 18 red-zone visits, the Browns and the Bears (shockingly) 17 each. Don’t be afraid of the Bears defense.

Teams generally run more than they pass once they enter the red zone. The most extreme example is the Buccaneers, who’ve run 33 times versus just 6 passes. Other extreme red-zone run teams are the Titans (29-13), the Bills (14-6), the Raiders (24-12), the Redskins (13-7) and the Patriots (39-21).

The most extreme passing team in the red zone by a million miles is the Packers (27 passes, 9 runs). After them are the Giants (24-15) and the Ravens (29-22). The other teams that pass more than they run in the red zone are the Bengals, the Steelers, the Chargers, the Eagles, the Cardinals, the Bears, the Lions, the Saints and the Seahawks. This latter grouping does it just barely.

Now let’s make some recommendations based on our red zone stats.

Buy

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: Calling a bottom here. He’s averaged five red zone touches per game, a respectable number that implies the TDs are coming.

Joe Jurevicius, WR, Browns: He has three red zone TDs already as the more heralded Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow have combined for just one red zone catch. All bets are off once Brady Quinn gets promoted.

Ernest Graham, RB, Bucs: A bowling ball of a runner. Cadillac Williams is out for the year. Jon Gruden reportedly went fishing for Corey Dillon, but came up empty.

Hold

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: He already has nine TD passes here on his 21 red zone attempts as he and Randy Moss are becoming the Lennon-McCartney of the passing game.

Sammy Morris, RB, Patriots: Twice as many red zone carries as Laurence Maroney, who missed Week 4 with an injured groin.

Todd Heap, TE, Ravens: Derrick Mason having six red zone catches to Heap’s one is a joke, as Heap has proven he can make plays even when he appears to be covered.

The Bengals Offense: Six red zone snaps per game is alarming; the Patriots have five red zone possessions per game. The Bengals must score a lot to be even competitive.

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers: Averaging 1.7 yards per pop in the red zone with one TD. Ben Roethlisbeger sports a 66 QB rating here, completing just 40 percent of his passes. Najeh Davenport might be worked in for the easy scores.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: Even though he’s averaging 4.7 yards on seven red zone carries with three TDs, Joe Gibbs says he’s interchangeable with Ladell Betts (negative yards on five red zone carries).

Sell

Vince Young, QB, Titans: Have to respect the stats. Has just two red zone rushing attempts, so forget those projections for anything approaching double-digit rushing TDs.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Even a superstar talent can’t find the end zone close to 10 times in an offense averaging less than three red zone snaps per game.

Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns: He has 11 yards on 11 red zone carries and has historically struggled near the goal line and in short yardage despite his size. The Browns defense stinks and this will limit his overall workload.

Frank Gore, RB, Niners: Trent Dilfer won’t be the answer. Alex Smith should have been benched before his shoulder injury (0 completions on 7 red zone attempts). This offense is painful to watch so he’s in the same situation as Peterson, with less talent.

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