Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

A regular season game is dressing up as the Super Bowl this Halloween week as the Patriots roll into Indianapolis in game pitting unbeatens against one another at the latest point since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

Peyton Manning used to be the guy who blew up the stat sheet and record book every week while Tom Brady went about the business of efficiently winning games and rings. Now it’s like Freaky Friday, as they’ve seemingly switched bodies to see how the other lives.

Patriot coaches refuse to let the game’s unwritten rules stand in the way of their quest to rewrite the NFL record book. They bring to mind the famous quote from Woody Hayes when asked why he went for two at the end of a 50-14 win over arch rival Michigan: “Because I couldn’t go for three!”

Last week, up 38-0 in the fourth quarter, the Patriots were in the shotgun throwing bombs, going on fourth down and having Brady toss his 30th TD pass of the season. So much for showing three-time Super Bowl winner Joe Gibbs some mercy.

The Redskins entered that game No. 1 in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt. Now it’s the Colts who have the NFL’s best pass defense measured this way. Will that even matter?

Indy’s defense is arguably the best defense at limiting big passing plays in modern NFL history. Last year, they allowed an NFL-best 27 passes of 20 yards or more (the median was 42). This year, they’ve allowed just seven, ridiculously good (the median thus far is 19). While most talk Manning vs. Brady, the game pits the NFL’s best pass offense by far versus its clearly superior pass defense.

Indy’s allowed five passing TDs this year, tied with the Seahawks and Jaguars for the fewest in football. Other teams allowing less than one passing TD per game are the Bucs, Eagles, Raiders and Chiefs. Most generous to opposing WRs and QBs are the Bengals and Browns (18 TD passes allowed), followed by the Dolphins (15), Broncos and Lions (13 each).

Indy has greatly improved in limiting rushing TDs. Last year, they yielded 20, one less than league-worst St. Louis. This year, they’re on pace to yield about 11.

Rushing TDs are slightly down overall. Last year, seven teams yielded at least one per game and the median was about 0.9. This year, the 16th--ranked team allows 0.7 rushing TDs per game. Eight teams currently allow at least one rushing TD per game, led by the Dolphins (11), Raiders (10), Jets (9) and Rams (9). Most stingy is Pittsburgh (1), followed by the Chargers, Eagles, Vikings, Packers and Ravens (2 each).

Now let's look at these and other stats and attempt to predict some individual performance.

Buy

Jerious Norwood, RB, Falcons: Coaches have been really stubborn with declining veterans this year. But Falcons beat writers reported this week that the End Days are coming for Warrick Dunn (3.1 per carry). Norwood (5.8 per carry) is literally twice the player.

Kevin Walter, WR, Texans: Has 36 catches for 478 yards and a TD the past five games. Andre Johnson (knee) clearly won’t replace him in the lineup if and when he returns (the target remains Week 11).

Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets: He’ll effectively attack the intermediate area of opposing secondaries with strong-armed Kellen Clemens now at QB for the Jets. Cotchery went 7-165 in Clemens' one start, at Baltimore.

Hold

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts: So much for the talk by Tony Dungy last week about making Kenton Keith a full RB-committee member. Addai (three TDs) was the alpha male again in the backfield and the Colts now lead the NFL with 12 rushing TDs.

LenDale White, RB, Titans: White keeps scoring and still leads the NFL in red-zone touches. But his lack of explosiveness comes into sharp relief whenever rookie Chris Henry (7.0 yards per carry) explodes out of the backfield. Henry also weighs 240 pounds.

Sell

Brian Leonard, RB, Rams: Steven Jackson (bulging disc) hurt his back right after scoring the Rams' lone rushing TD of 2007 on Sunday. Leonard likely goes back to starting. But with the Rams' offensive linemen continuing to drop like flies, it’s hopeless in St. Louis.

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