Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Welker's value on the upswing

9:23 AM Fri, Oct 26, 2007 |
Mike McDermott    Email

By Michael Salfino

Different format this week. I just finished up a redraft league with other football writers. Only how players score going forward matters. Scoring is pretty typical. The designations are relative to where players were drafted this week relative to where they tended to be drafted preseason. But I'll tell you whether or not I disagree and why in my comments. This was a 10-team draft.

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Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (5th overall): He should be the third or fourth RB, I guess. But he's not starting and Chester Taylor has 40 carries to Peterson's 44 when both are healthy. I like him a lot more if Kelly Holcomb starts for QB Tarvaris Jackson, who is a joke.

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints (12th): This was not a point-per-catch league or Bush would have maybe been a top-six pick. He's the only Saint skill player not deeply discounted for their surprising offensive woes. Like this pick.

Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns (11th): Second WR off the board. I'd be afraid to speculate that highly because there's still some chance the Browns look for an excuse to bench QB Derek Anderson and give reps to rookie Brady Quinn.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams (10th): Seventh RB taken. He's due back this week. As with Bush, his team's offensive woes don't seem to matter. Perhaps it's a sign of desperation at a very weak RB position.

Wes Welker, WR, Patriots (37th): Wow. I can't disagree. This is the golden year for Tom Brady (2nd overall pick in a league that deeply discounts passing TDs). Donte Stallworth went 49th. Randy Moss 6th.

Kevin Curtis, WR, Eagles (69th): How have things changed since August? Reggie Brown was the consensus Eagles receiver to own (not here, thankfully) and went 96th. Experts have lost faith in the Eagles passing game (McNabb went 85th). I'm more bullish on Donovan (but already owned Brady).

Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos (56th): I like Curtis just as much. But Marshall is a player to own, as there's upside from here despite the DUI this week (which should not impact his playing status). With Javon Walker out for maybe the year, Marshall is a No. 1 receiver on a team with a playcalling genius as coach, uncertainty at running back, a disappointing defense and a young gun QB.

Jesse Chatman, RB, Dolphins (41st): He was drafted ahead of Laurence Maroney, Thomas Jones, Travis Henry and LaMont Jordan. So, he's the No. 1 waiver-wire guy this week with Ronnie Brown out for the year (ACL). All bets are off when the switch is made to rookie John Beck.

No change

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans (32nd): I think this was too high. He's not playing again this week. Who knows how bad his knee is hurt. Always assume guys hurt are going to stay hurt. How will he play at less than 100 percent? What's Matt Schaub's status (multiple injuries last week)? Way too much uncertainty here.

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts (3rd): I was wrong in not worrying that he'd be a committee guy. Dungy says he's going to a timeshare. Does that mean 70 percent of the carries for Addai or 51 percent like last week? This question puts him into the second tier or running backs and Kenton Keith (82nd) into the third.

Chris Henry, WR, Bengals (101st): That's a great value (went one pick before I could grab him). Henry was allowed to return to practice this week, paving the way for his return November 11th. He'll be super explosive again, nine TDs on 36 catches last year.

Jerious Norwood, RB, Falcons (68th): Great value. Warrick's done. So is that joke, I know. But there shouldn't be any controversy here with Norwood averaging six yards per carry since the start of 2006, twice what Dunn averages this year.

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Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts (33rd): Experts are appropriately worried about the sprained knee. How long will it take him to recover at age 35? His owners need to get rookie Anthony Gonzalez (undrafted) as insurance.

Torry Holt, WR, Rams (45th): How the mighty WRs have fallen. Another veteran with a bad knee. In addition, the Rams can't pass block, which means…

Marc Bulger, QB, Rams (132nd): …Bulger's stock has bottomed out. Who would have thought that Bulger owners would long for the days where Mike Martz was in charge of scheming to protect Bulger. At these prices, it pays to be invested in the Rams passing game.

Javon Walker, WR, Broncos (160th): There's hope, I guess, that he comes back in Week 14 or so. He's out at least five more games, according to his knee surgeon. That helps his owner here more than other fantasy owners unless they're fairly certain to make the playoffs.

Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots (43rd): I finally give up. He got a handful of carries and no goal-line looks upon his return from a groin injury in a game the Patriots were leading 42-7 at halftime. Maybe they're saving him. Hopefully not for 2008.

Drew Brees, QB, Saints (90th): That's bullish considering how badly he's played and produced. He's been as horrible as any QB not named "Tarvaris" this year. To give you a sense of his current value, he was tabbed right between Jon Kitna and Ben Roethlisberger. Fair enough, though I'd rather have Big Ben.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints: He's playing like a rookie this year. Always be wary of new No. 1 receivers, especially very young ones. He was taken just after Curtis and just before Santana Moss. I'd much rather have Curtis, but Colston should outperform the once-again, other Moss.

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