Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Much to the chagrin of fantasy football owners nationwide, another dreaded NFL timeshare at running back has emerged in Indianapolis. Kenton Keith parlayed his big Week 5 in relief of the injured Joseph Addai into about half the carries (15 to Addai's 16) Monday night, a ratio that will presumably stick going forward.

There was much talk in August of the pervasiveness of these running back committees. Looking around the NFL, however, timeshares don't appear to be any more common than in other recent seasons.

Only the Falcons, Panthers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Patriots, Vikings and now Colts appear to currently have true timeshares irrespective of injuries. I'm defining a timeshare as any arrangement where the primary ball carrier gets 70 percent of the carries or less.

Are these arrangements effective? Looking at rushing yards per carry, the teams above rank 19th, 8th, 5th, 4th, 15th, 1st and 12th, respectively. That seems to be a good argument for committees.

Some NFL executives maintain that committees are in a running back's best interest given that they generally have no more than 1,500 or so carries in them. Only about 50 backs in NFL history that have surpassed that mark. If committees were more prevalent, perhaps backs could have seven- or eight-year careers rather than ones lasting four or five. Of course, it's also generally much cheaper to pay two halves of a running back than one whole.

So while Addai might not like the new arrangement with Kenton Keith any more than his fantasy owners, perhaps it will add a few more productive years to his career.

Whether spreading out the carries would reduce injuries is highly speculative. Miami's Ronnie Brown had the biggest rushing/receiving workload in the NFL and is now out for the season with a torn ACL. But he sustained that injury trying to make a tackle on an interception return.

Running back careers most often end with a more chronic loss of effectiveness. Earl Campbell, Franco Harris, Emmitt Smith, Eddie George and many others wore down due to age and mileage.

Eventually, the circus leaves town for all these running backs. This year older-than-30 backs Shaun Alexander (2,104 carries) and Warrick Dunn (2,351) are in their final death throes.

While Dunn gets the vast majority of carries (95) compared to his backup Jerious Norwood (47), it's Norwood who runs much more effectively: 5.8 yards per carry compared to 3.1 for Dunn. Norwood clearly should be Atlanta's primary RB.

Other backups badly outperforming starters include the Panthers' DeAngelo Williams over DeShaun Foster (5.5 to 4.2 with Foster also leading the league in fumbles). The Titans' Chris Brown trumps LenDale White (5.3 to 3.3 and look out for rookie Chris Henry, who had a sparkling debut Sunday). And no human can keep up with Minnesota's Adrian Peterson (6.2 per carry to 4.4 for starter Chester Taylor, who has 40 carries to Peterson's 44 in the games where both are healthy).

Let's more closely examine other individual backs.

Buy

Jesse Chatman, Dolphins: The offensive environment in Miami is quickly deteriorating and will likely get worse when rookie John Beck eventually is installed as starter. Expect about 70 percent of Brown's production, short term, which isn't bad.

Kenny Watson, Bengals: Rudi Johnson declined last year and has looked awful even when healthy in 2007 (3.0 per carry). The Jets don't have a professional defense; so don't get too carried away with Sunday's numbers.

Hold

Laurence Maroney, Patriots: A downgrade from last week, as Maroney was off the field in the red zone again on Sunday in his return from a groin injury. When healthy, Maroney's gotten about 54 percent of carries, none of those near paydirt.

Sell

LaMont Jordan, Raiders: Dominic Rhodes got almost half the carries last week and Jordan has had a bad back for two years.

Clinton Portis, Redskins: Not running well, but still outplaying Ladell Betts (2.9 per carry). FB Mike Sellers (280 pounds) seems to be the new, primary goal-line runner despite Portis' two short scores in Week 7.

Willie Parker, Steelers: Until Najeh Davenport gets hurt again, Parker (16 TDs in 2006) will not get a sniff of any short-yardage TDs, thanks to his terrible efficiency there this year (26 red zone rushes, one TD).

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