Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Sunday's Patriots-Cowboys game provides a prism through which we can focus on the relative importance of passing vs. running, league-wide scoring trends and whether AFC dominance over the NFC is continuing.

High-flying New England led virtually the entire game and coasted to a 21-point (48-27) victory in Dallas over the previously undefeated Cowboys despite being inept in the running game (2.6 yards per attempt on 29 carries). More evidence that running and defending the run well is vastly overrated.

That running well opens up the pass (or vice versa) feels like it should be true.

There's no evidence of it, however. Most years, top 10 running teams measured by yards per rush are typically only average in yards per pass attempt. Last year, they were actually below average.

Thus far in 2007, the Vikings, behind Superman rookie Adrian Peterson, are No. 1 in yards per rush, 28th in yards per pass. The Eagles are 2nd and 19th, respectively. Oakland (5th and 21st), Miami (8th and 20th) and Carolina (9th and 23rd) also spit in the face of conventional wisdom.

What about the great passing game opening up the run? The Patriots are 1st in passing efficiency and 14th in rushing efficiency. If the Patriots atomically charged passing game can't create wider than average running lanes, nothing can. Houston is 4th and 32nd, Tampa Bay 5th and 20th, Seattle 9th and 25th…. Even Indy is 3rd and 12th. So, not a strong correlation that way, either.

We had a big passing year in 2004 before moving toward more point-production off the running game in the seasons since. But 2006 feels like a carbon copy of 2004. Is that just because another QB (Brady instead of Manning) is threatening to throw 50 TD passes?

Passing yards per game is up significantly and even tops 2004 levels. YPA is way up overall and especially in the AFC, where teams average nearly 7 yards per pass even after adjusting for sack yardage.

But while individuals are rolling -- with Tony Romo and Derek Anderson on pace for about 40 TD passes and Carson Palmer, Eli Manning and Peyton Manning all on pace for 30 or more -- the league-wide picture is mixed. In 2004, there were 732 aerial scores. The pace this year is 671 (648 last year). It takes more passes this year to generate a TD than last, thanks to dregs Buffalo (1 TD pass in 126 attempts), San Francisco (2 in 136), New Orleans (3 in 213) and Baltimore (4 in 238). Scoring in the passing game in 2007 is very top heavy.

Let's quickly look at interconference play, which became comical in 2006 with the AFC going 34-11 vs. the NFC down the stretch, outscoring their counterparts by an average of 7.6 points per game. Thus far in 2007, the AFC is 14-12 against the NFC, outscoring them by an average of 3.8 points per game. Outside of New England and Indy, the NFC appears to have completely closed the gap.

Now let's make some player recommendations.

Buy

Donte Stallworth, WR, Patriots: This year, 86 percent of Brady's passes come out of three- or four-WR sets. Last year, it was 76 percent. Stallworth and Wes Welker are a solid bet to score every week.

Hold

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: He's throwing 45 TD passes, at least. Fun Brady stat of the week: he's been blitzed on 54 plays this year: three sacks, 41 completions, 7 TDs, 0 picks, 153 QB rating.

Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns: In games started by Anderson, Cleveland (bye this week) averages 32 points per game, which would be third best behind New England (38) and Indy (33). The Browns defense is conducive to more shootouts.

Sell

Chad Johnson, WR, Bengals: Carson Palmer isn't getting time to throw deep and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is the No. 1 guy in all other levels of the field. Ocho Cinco will be solid but rarely spectacular relative to his less heralded counterpart.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: He's still not starting. Chester Taylor had more carries last week (22 to 20) and the Vikes don't score enough (16th in PPG) or defend the pass well enough (19th in YPA) for Peterson to maintain this level of production in a timeshare.

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