Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

There's at least 25 percent of the season in the books for every team, and almost a third of it for most. So let's take a statistical look around the NFL and assume that current trends will be lasting.

Over many years of analysis, a team that averages more than one yard more per pass attempt than they allow is very likely to be a playoff team. If you're more than two yards better than what you allow (sack yardage included), you're a bona fide Super Bowl contender.

Amazingly, just one team is currently in our playoff-worthy, plus-1 to plus-2 tier: the Houston Texans. But the Super Bowl-tier of teams that have a YPA differential of at least plus-2 yards is uncharacteristically crowded: Patriots, Cowboys, Colts, Steelers, Buccaneers and Redskins.

What about the bad (minus-1 YPA differential) and horribly bad teams (minus-2 or worse). The merely bad are the Falcons, Ravens, Vikings and Jets. The horribly bad: the Bills, Bears, Rams and Niners. And in their own special category of badness, clocking in at an almost unfathomable minus-4.5 yards per attempt: the New Orleans Saints.

Looking only at the defenses, here are the teams you don't want to pass against when measured by YPA: the Redskins, Steelers, Titans, Bucs and Patriots. They all have provided devilish matchups thus far for any QB and WR corps.

Fun to pass against are the Saints, Jets, Bears, Chargers and Bills. Everyone is blaming Norv Turner and the offense for the early trouble in San Diego. But the pass defense seems more to blame. Similarly, the pass defense of the Bears has been more disappointing than even the QB play of Rex Grossman, who we all knew was a problem.

When looking at yards per rushing attempt allowed, the easy marks for running backs are the Bengals, Raiders, Broncos, Browns and Bills. Conversely, runners find a veritable brick wall when slamming into the front sevens of the Vikings, Ravens, Eagles, Giants and Saints. See what a great run defense buys you, New Orleans? Bupkis.

As for league-wide trends, it's easier to throw the ball this year in the NFL (6.6 net YPA on average versus 6.4 last year) and harder to run it (4.07 per carry this year, 4.16 in 2006). Both points per game (21) and yards per game (325) are up very slightly for the average team compared to 2006.

Now lets look at stats for some individual performers.

Buy

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: He's averaging a TD on 10 percent of his attempts. When Peyton Manning set the NFL record with 49 TD passes in 2004, he tossed a TD on 9.9 percent of attempts. This is Brady's Sgt. Pepper year.

Andre Davis, WR, Texans: The Andre Johnson injury is lingering. Davis has stepped into the void, leading the NFL in yards per catch (20.5). Just behind him, in order, are Santonio Holmes (Steelers), Braylon Edwards (Browns), Greg Jennings (Packers) and Antwaan Randle El (Redskins, hamstring).

Derek Anderson, QB, Browns: He's third in the league in TD passes and averaging 7.9 yard per attempt with two great receiving threats (Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow). The only QBs ahead of Anderson in YPA are Brady, Tony Romo (Cowboys), David Garrard (Jaguars), Jeff Garcia (Bucs), Manning and Jon Kitna (Lions).

Hold

Drew Brees, QB, Saints: I'd look for the first selling opportunity, as he has a pathetic 5.25 YPA with one TD toss. Yes, of course he'll get better, but not 2006 better.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: The only healthy, starting back averaging over 5.0 per pop. The loss of QB Trent Green (concussion) would hurt, as he's a professional and defenses will not respect the pass versus backup Cleo Lemon.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Bengals: Leads the NFL in average catches per game (9.9). And he also continues to find the end zone more than Chad Johnson, more highly regarded presumably for his endzone celebrations.

Sell

Cedric Benson, RB, Bears: Averaging a pathetic 3.0 per rush. Other big-name backs under 3.5: LaDainian Tomlinson, Thomas Jones (Jets), Warrick Dunn (Falcons), Larry Johnson (Chiefs) and Rudi Johnson (Bengals).

Jon Kitna, QB, Lions: He's an injury waiting to happen, having been sacked 19 times already this year. Defenses apparently have caught up to Mike Martz's four-WR sets.

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