Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

It's time to accept that much of what's happening on Sunday afternoons is more likely lasting than not. Preseason projections have lost much of their meaning. Don't stick stubbornly to what you thought in August, when we all were guessing even more than now.

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Dallas Clark, TE, Colts: I thought he was too old for a breakthrough at 28. I overvalued his bad rate at converting passes thrown to him in 2006. And I overestimated the impact first-round pick Anthony Gonzalez as a slot receiver. Hopefully, you ignored me and drafted Clark anyway. If so, keep him. He's Peyton Manning's roommate. I wish I could get a list of who rooms with every QB.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: He looked like a man against boys versus the Chargers, but San Diego folded their tents in that game. The Chiefs passing game is not good and Eddie Kennison is due back while Tony Gonzalez also asserted himself. If Bowe's on your waiver wire, grab him. But if you need to trade for him, pay no more than 50 cents on the dollar for what you saw last week.

Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals: Friend and colleague Scott Pianowski observed that Matt Leinart looks like he's driving 35 miles in the fast lane compared to Warner when it comes to reading the defense and releasing the pigskin. Lots of mainstream media guys are rhapsodizing about coach Ken Whisenhunt's two-QB rotation. But it's still stupid. The only thing that makes it smart is that it gets Leinart out of there. So then the question is, "Why not get him out of there the whole game?" You can't lie to your team and tell them every day that you're playing the players who give the team the best chance to win while the guy who the team sees is the best QB by a country mile wears a headset most of the game. The Cardinals are good enough everywhere else to contend for the playoffs in a weak division. But only if they play their best QB, which shouldn't be this complicated.

Brett Favre, QB, Packers: Time for my weekly Favre apology. I don't understand it. But after three straight weeks, I must respect it. He's found a second wind at age 38 after having two good years in the last 10. He's throwing 58 percent of the time on first down, 80 percent of the time in the red zone, more than the Packers run in every quarter and even about 70 percent of the time when the Packers are up a score. And there's no running game in sight. So even if the Packers are anywhere near as good as their 4-0 record indicates, he will get close to last year's 600 attempts.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: That 11th-hour rumor that he was being cut combined with another leg injury that made it seem like he was either chronically injured or dogging it again dropped his stock to bargain levels. Now, he's the player most likely to lead his team to a fantasy championship (considering he cost, at most, a third-round pick). Moss is having a second act, which is very rare in sports and entertainment. He's like Sinatra in the 1950s. Like Muhammad Ali in Zaire. Like, heck, Favre in 2007.

Selvin Young, RB, Broncos: He needs one thing to happen to have a huge impact on the fantasy season: a Travis Henry injury. Mike Shanahan loves him, though we should caution that Shanahan falls in and out of love with his backs like a fickle schoolgirl. Forget that Young is an undrafted rookie. Henry has already been banged up a couple of times and is 29 this month.

Patrick Crayton, WR, Cowboys: Yes, an awesome week against the pathetic Rams secondary. But the Cowboys want to run a lot with the two-headed backfield and Terrell Owens is going to be the No. 1 receiver by a mile. TE Jason Witten is Tony Romo's roomie on the road (my new stat!) and will likely continue to be targeted near paydirt. Most weeks, Crayton will be an afterthought.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: You never want to make too much of one game, let alone one play. However, Brown looked like a No. 2 overall pick when he ran over a Raider at the goal line and relished the Earl Campbell impression with an emphatic spike. This is still not a good situation for a back because the offense isn't very good and the defense suddenly stinks. But Brown is a top 10 fantasy back in a historically weak running back year, at least thus far.

Vernon Davis, TE, Niners: Trent Dilfer can't hurt. Don't downgrade Davis for losing Alex Smith, probably the worst of the NFL starting QBs. Vets like Dilfer like to work inside out from the TE position.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers: Well, he is better than Hines Ward now, as Ward is injured. So, you couldn't really overdraft Holmes after all. He plays big and fast and has a good QB feeding him the ball, which is everything you need.

No Change

Duante Culpepper, QB, Raiders: He'll have bad karma now for the ridiculous final TD he rubbed in the Dolphins faces. But he still may not have the starting job. He completed five passes for 75 yards last week and do you really think he's going to keep making plays running with that spaghetti knee?

Bobby Engram, WR, Seahawks: He's getting targets but isn't starting. So, he's an emergency play at best because you can't normally start No. 3 WRs on winning teams that play a base two-WR offense.

Steve McNair, QB, Ravens: Forget the passing yards. He stinks. The Browns are getting smoked by everyone defensively and McNair can only manage one TD. McNair also averaged less than six yards per attempt last week, too. You don't get any credit here unless you're at least over 7.0 - versus a good team.

Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets: Chad Pennington refuses to throw the ball downfield (very likely because he knows he can't). But Cotchery is still a playmaker and will get lots of opportunities. He's a better red-zone receiver than Laveraneus Coles, despite the early TD returns, where Coles is trouncing him 4-0.

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Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: Jake Delhomme seems to be putting off the inevitable elbow surgery. In the likely event he can't get better by rubbing dirt on it, the "Terrible, No Good, Horrible, Very Bad" David Carr gets to ruin Smith's season. Smith saw it coming on Sunday and started screaming at the coaches. But they're stuck with Carr for now, too.

LaMont Jordan, RB, Raiders: The back turned out to be the problem we predicted last week. Coach Lane Kiffin said that Dominic Rhodes will be active after the bye and that "in two weeks, we get a chance to take a look at (rookie) Michael Bush (leg)." Add in Justin Fargas, who ran wild after Jordan was carted off, and you have a four-man mess.

Derrick Ward, RB, Giants: He's a committee guy now with Brandon Jacobs returning from his knee injury this week. But don't release him. He deserves at least half the carries and very well may get that, as Jacobs hasn't come close to proving he can be a feature back.

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