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October 20
By David Ferris Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).
By David Ferris Quarterbacks Cardinals QB Kurt Warner (elbow) did some work in practice and might be able to have some role in Sunday's game at Washington. It's still more likely that Tim Rattay will play, however, and the Cardinals won't get anything easy against an outstanding Redskins secondary. Titans QB Vince Young (quad) did some work Friday but he's a game-time decision, at best, for Sunday's homecoming at Houston. Kerry Collins will likely get the call. Rams QB Marc Bulger (ribs) will return to the starting lineup Sunday at Seattle. The Ravens will start QB Kyle Boller at Buffalo, as Steve McNair is still dealing with a sore groin and back. The idea is for McNair to return after the Week 8 bye; we'll see. Even though Bills QB J.P. Losman (knee) has been practicing this week, rookie Trent Edwards will start against the Ravens. Jets QB Chad Pennington (ankle) is listed as questionable and missed reps all week, though he's still likely to go against Cincinnati. It's clearly a make-or-break spot for Pennington; if he doesn't produce a win here, he's essentially forcing the switch to Kellen Clemens. The 49ers will use Trent Dilfer at the Giants Sunday, though Alex Smith (shoulder) may be in uniform. Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson (groin) had a full workout Friday and will be ready to handoff to his backs Sunday at Dallas. The Dolphins feel it's too risky to have Trent Green (concussion) take another snap for them this year, so it will be the Cleo Lemon show for now, and probably the John Beck experiment later in the year. Giants QB Anthony Wright is now the No. 2 option on the depth chart, if you wanted to know. Running Backs Patriots RB Laurence Maroney (groin) had another limited practice week and is very questionable for Sunday's game at Miami. At least it's an early kickoff, so status should be available around noontime eastern. Don't look for Sammy Morris (chest) to be on the field; he's very doubtful for this week and probably will be out multiple games. If Maroney and Morris both sit this one out, it becomes a backfield-by-committee with Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans getting most of the touches. Colts RB Joseph Addai (chest/shoulder) has been practicing this week and was taken off the injury report Friday. He won't get anything easy at Jacksonville but use him anyway. Rams RB Steven Jackson (groin) is out for at least another week, so Brian Leonard gets the rock at Seattle. Broncos RB Travis Henry (pending suspension) will play this week and looks to be clear for at least three more games. Bengals RB Rudi Johnson (hamstring) didn't work with the club all week and is doubtful for Sunday's game with the Jets. Kenny Watson figures to get plenty of work in Johnson's place. Eagles RB Brian Westbrook is free of the injury report, so no worries there. Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown (foot) is listed as probable and should take his full workload against New England. Giants RB Brandon Jacobs (ankle) was limited in practice this week and is legitimately questionable for Sunday's game with San Francisco. Derrick Ward (ankle) seems to be move healthy, and Reuben Droughns is also an option. Be careful with this mix. The Lions promoted RB Kevin Jones to first string, in case you missed it. Tatum Bell will be the change-of-pace back. The Jaguars have taken it easy on Fred Taylor (groin) and Maurice Jones-Drew (thigh) in practice this week, but both are expected to go against Indianapolis Monday night. Jacksonville ran all over the Colts the last time the teams met in late 2006. Raiders RB LaMont Jordan (back) had a good practice week and is listed as probable. Of course, Jordan was doubtful on the report last week and played, so be careful with the information this team floats out there. Texans RB Ahman Green (knee) had a good two days of practice and looks fine for a full load against Tennessee. Titans RB Chris Brown (ankle) isn't expected for Sunday, which means LenDale White will carry the load and Chris Henry may see some action for the first time. Buccaneers RB Michael Bennett is expected to get some change-of-pace work at Detroit. He's still picking up the offense, of course, after joining the team mid-week. Receivers Texans WR Andre Johnson (knee) did more running this week but he won't be ready for Week 7, and there's no specific timetable to when he will be able to play. Maybe he'll return next week, but it's possible we won't see him until November. Broncos WR Javon Walker had his knee cleaned out this week and will miss multiple games; the early estimates have him sitting six weeks. Brandon Stokley becomes a starter with Walker out, and Brandon Marshall figures to see some extra targets. Colts WR Marvin Harrison (knee) sat out Friday's practice, but Tony Dungy expects Harrison to go at Jacksonville Monday. Giants WR Plaxico Burress (ankle) wasn't practicing this week, as usual, but seeing as though he's played every week – and scored every week – you should keep using him. Bengals WR Chad Johnson (ankle) was back at practice Friday after resting the previous day. He's fully expected to play Sunday against the Jets. Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin (hip) did well at practice all week and is fully expected to play at Washington. He's listed as probable. The Rams expect Torry Holt (knee) and Isaac Bruce (hamstring) to go at Seattle, but it's iffy on Drew Bennett (hamstring). Redskins WR Santana Moss (hamstring) had a productive practice week and is a green light for Week 7. He's also got something to prove after a dreadful showing in Green Bay last week. Jets WR Laveranues Coles (calf) should be fine for his regular workload at Cincinnati. The Steelers will have Hines Ward (knee) and Santonio Holmes (hamstring) back for Sunday night's game at Denver, barring a pre-game setback. Both players were active in practice all week. Patriots WR Donte Stallworth (knee) got back to full work Friday and looks fine for Sunday's game at Miami. Buccaneers WR Ike Hilliard (shoulder) had a full day Friday and will play at Detroit. Seahawks WR D.J. Hackett (ankle) has been working this week but is still very questionable for Week 7. You can't use him. Deion Branch (foot) has already been ruled out. Falcons WR Joe Horn (knee) is listed as probable. We hope your search doesn't go that deep. Broncos WR Rod Smith (hip) isn't ready to play yet. Cowboys WR Terry Glenn (knee) might help the club later in the year, but he won't dress in Week 7. Chiefs WR Eddie Kennison (hamstring) is out for another week. The Chris Chambers trade means Miami will find more snaps for Derek Hagan and Ted Ginn. Hagan looks like the starter for now. Ravens TE Todd Heap (hamstring) missed another day of practice Friday and looks unlikely to play at Buffalo. The club is also expected to miss TE Daniel Wilcox (foot). Patriots TE Ben Watson (knee) didn't practice all week and while the club calls him a game-time decision, you're probably better off making a safer play. Kyle Brady picks up extra reps if Watson is out. Falcons TE Alge Crumpler (knee/ankle) didn't do much this week and is considered doubtful, so use someone else. Dwayne Blakley might get an extra look or two in Crumpler's absence. Eagles TE L.J. Smith (groin) hit a setback this week and probably won't go against Chicago. Buccaneers TE Alex Smith (ankle) looks unlikely to go at Detroit, making Jerramy Stevens a viable sleeper in very deep leagues. Packers TE Bubba Franks (knee) will probably miss a couple of games even after Green Bay's bye, so look at Donald Lee as a possible replacement. Seahawks TE Marcus Pollard (knee) got back to practice Friday and will probably play against the Rams. Dolphins TE David Martin, who surprisingly scored twice last week, has a sore ankle and is considered questionable for Sunday's game against New England. Jets TE Chris Baker (back) is questionable and was limited all week. Other Positions Jaguars PK Josh Scobee (quad) isn't ready to return, so John Carney kicks on Monday night. Texans PK Kris Brown (foot) should be fine for Sunday's game with Houston. His injury is to his non-kicking foot. Patriots LB Adalius Thomas (ankle) should be fine for his regular role. Dolphins LB Zach Thomas (toe) was limited all week and is questionable for Sunday's game with the Patriots. Broncos CB Champ Bailey (quad) did some limited work Friday and will be a game-night call against the Steelers. Ravens CB Chris McAllister (knee) is unlikely to play at Buffalo, good news for Lee Evans. Colts S Bob Sanders (chest/ribs) should be able to go Monday at Jacksonville, a major boost to the Indy run defense. Texans CB Dunta Robinson (hamstring) is cleared for Sunday. October 18
By Michael Salfino Fantasy scoreboards lit up like a pinball machines in Week 6. Some owners were still outgunned by Tom Brady (five more TD passes) and LaDainian Tomlinson (four TDs, doubling his total the first five weeks). Here's what I took out of the weekend's action. Upgrade Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots: He was inactive again last week with an injured groin, but did practice last week. Sammy Morris is out indefinitely with a badly bruised sternum and the Pats are so desperate for a back that they're working out Kevan Barlow. You want to be one week early here, because if Maroney returns and gets feature-back duties with goal-line carries, he'll be an untouchable. Michael Bennett, RB, Bucs: He's still fast but has never been able to handle a full workload. So odds are, he'll join the other Bucs backs in the ER. Once he learns the playbook, he'll get 70 percent of the carries at least for as long as he holds up. That's worth a serious free-agent flyer in every league. Chris Chambers, WR, Chargers: He's a guy who gets by on his athletic gifts, which will speed the adjustment in San Diego. He also has a solid QB for the first time ever and will face a lot of single coverage. The Chargers' pass defense is bad. Short-term, he takes a hit. Medium- and long-term, give him an upgrade to borderline Top 25 WRs. Hines Ward, WR, Steelers: He's healthy and probably in for a tough matchup versus Champ Bailey, also recovering from injury over the bye week. He'll be the Steelers' possession receiver and No. 1 red-zone guy going forward, and I think he'll be more productive than Santonio Holmes. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: The QB situation is terrible, but White has great speed and runs like a RB when he gets the ball. There will be plenty of passing opportunities with the Atlanta defense 23rd in yards allowed per play and 27th in yards per pass. DeShawn Wynn, RB, Packers: Brett Favre is throwing it up for grabs again, and the coaching staff is going to have to rein him in given their solid defense. Wynn has been anointed the clear starter with Vernand Morency the third-down back and Brandon Jackson in the gutter. No Change Wes Welker, WR, Patriots: Ben Watson is out for at least two weeks with a high ankle sprain, and the Patriots have three or more WR on the field for 86 percent of passing plays. Plus, all the backs are banged up, so the throw percentage for New England should hold steady, even with the Pats blowing teams up early with the pass. Hold Donte Stallworth, too. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: We've been through this before with Vinny Testaverde, in 2005 when he had a solid first game against a great Buc defense and then faded badly. Smith owners are hoping that a soon-to-be 44-year-old ends up being his QB for the year. Find someone in your league who views Testaverde as a solid battery mate for Smith, and get back 95 cents on the dollar. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: You always need to consider trading a guy off a monster day like Peterson had last week. When that guy didn't even get the most carries on his team, it's a slam-dunk sell. I reiterate that Peterson is from the Planet Krypton, so sell high. But the Vikings offense is not remotely explosive enough for Peterson to continue to be a top RB with less than half his team's carries. Downgrade Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Kurt Warner's status (torn non-throwing elbow) is uncertain for this week, and WR Anquan Boldin is back and likely to reassume his role as No. 1 receiver. Fitzgerald is probably the most gifted WR in the sport. But the Cardinals don't play to his strengths: incredible size, wingspan and hands to make plays deep down the sidelines on alley-oops. Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers: He was overdrafted everywhere, as I suspected he'd be, because it's always a big adjustment to step into the ring as a No. 1 WR. Now Chris Chambers has been brought in, and Antonio Gates is cemented as the first read. There are at least 35 or 40 better WR options going forward. Alge Crumpler, TE, Falcons: When you take on the coaching staff, you better make sure you're doing your job. Crumpler acts the part of malcontent while dropping passes and looking out of shape. He's not on the field anymore on third downs. That's the kiss of death for a would-be top fantasy TE. Crumpler is a JAG (Just Another Guy) at the position now, in reality and in fantasy. Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: After spraining his knee opening night, Jacobs finally came back in Week 5 only to suffer two more minor injuries in Week 6. He runs upright and is a huge target for linebackers at 6-foot-4, 270 pounds, so expect lots of time at the shop. Ahman Green, RB, Texans: There's no gas in the tank. Always expect that when a back turns 30. Green owners should be grateful they're not stuck with similarly spent Shaun Alexander. Keeper alert: Houston and Seattle seem to be the most likely landing places for unrestricted-FA-to-be Michael Turner (Chargers) come March.
By David Ferris Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL. * = check status Quarterback October 16
By Michael Salfino Sunday's Patriots-Cowboys game provides a prism through which we can focus on the relative importance of passing vs. running, league-wide scoring trends and whether AFC dominance over the NFC is continuing. High-flying New England led virtually the entire game and coasted to a 21-point (48-27) victory in Dallas over the previously undefeated Cowboys despite being inept in the running game (2.6 yards per attempt on 29 carries). More evidence that running and defending the run well is vastly overrated. That running well opens up the pass (or vice versa) feels like it should be true. There's no evidence of it, however. Most years, top 10 running teams measured by yards per rush are typically only average in yards per pass attempt. Last year, they were actually below average. Thus far in 2007, the Vikings, behind Superman rookie Adrian Peterson, are No. 1 in yards per rush, 28th in yards per pass. The Eagles are 2nd and 19th, respectively. Oakland (5th and 21st), Miami (8th and 20th) and Carolina (9th and 23rd) also spit in the face of conventional wisdom. What about the great passing game opening up the run? The Patriots are 1st in passing efficiency and 14th in rushing efficiency. If the Patriots atomically charged passing game can't create wider than average running lanes, nothing can. Houston is 4th and 32nd, Tampa Bay 5th and 20th, Seattle 9th and 25th…. Even Indy is 3rd and 12th. So, not a strong correlation that way, either. We had a big passing year in 2004 before moving toward more point-production off the running game in the seasons since. But 2006 feels like a carbon copy of 2004. Is that just because another QB (Brady instead of Manning) is threatening to throw 50 TD passes? Passing yards per game is up significantly and even tops 2004 levels. YPA is way up overall and especially in the AFC, where teams average nearly 7 yards per pass even after adjusting for sack yardage. But while individuals are rolling -- with Tony Romo and Derek Anderson on pace for about 40 TD passes and Carson Palmer, Eli Manning and Peyton Manning all on pace for 30 or more -- the league-wide picture is mixed. In 2004, there were 732 aerial scores. The pace this year is 671 (648 last year). It takes more passes this year to generate a TD than last, thanks to dregs Buffalo (1 TD pass in 126 attempts), San Francisco (2 in 136), New Orleans (3 in 213) and Baltimore (4 in 238). Scoring in the passing game in 2007 is very top heavy. Let's quickly look at interconference play, which became comical in 2006 with the AFC going 34-11 vs. the NFC down the stretch, outscoring their counterparts by an average of 7.6 points per game. Thus far in 2007, the AFC is 14-12 against the NFC, outscoring them by an average of 3.8 points per game. Outside of New England and Indy, the NFC appears to have completely closed the gap. Now let's make some player recommendations. Buy Donte Stallworth, WR, Patriots: This year, 86 percent of Brady's passes come out of three- or four-WR sets. Last year, it was 76 percent. Stallworth and Wes Welker are a solid bet to score every week. Hold Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: He's throwing 45 TD passes, at least. Fun Brady stat of the week: he's been blitzed on 54 plays this year: three sacks, 41 completions, 7 TDs, 0 picks, 153 QB rating. Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns: In games started by Anderson, Cleveland (bye this week) averages 32 points per game, which would be third best behind New England (38) and Indy (33). The Browns defense is conducive to more shootouts. Sell Chad Johnson, WR, Bengals: Carson Palmer isn't getting time to throw deep and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is the No. 1 guy in all other levels of the field. Ocho Cinco will be solid but rarely spectacular relative to his less heralded counterpart. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: He's still not starting. Chester Taylor had more carries last week (22 to 20) and the Vikes don't score enough (16th in PPG) or defend the pass well enough (19th in YPA) for Peterson to maintain this level of production in a timeshare. October 15
By David Ferris You saw what Adrian Peterson did when finally given the rock Sunday, and ditto for Maurice Jones-Drew. Other No. 2 backs who deserve to be similarly liberated, even if the results might not be quite as explosive: Marion Barber (does everything better than Julius Jones, including block); DeAngelo Williams (far more explosive than DeShaun Foster); Adrian Peterson, Chicago style (call him Deep Dish – and please, call Cedric Benson a cab). It's all well and good that Washington took Clinton Portis off the injury report this week, but he certainly didn't run like someone who's healed. Tread very carefully here, and if you can still get most of the sticker price, do some selling. This isn't to suggest that Ladell Betts can fix this ground game – he's been running in quicksand all year Playing the matchups is always the way to go with your fantasy defense, and no team hands out the goodies more than Detroit, with its leaky protection scheme. Tampa Bay gets fat this next week, with Denver waiting for Week 9 and Arizona in Week 10. Check your waiver wire, and remember to not invest anything substantial in this position when you draft next summer. Scouting Notebook favorite Derek Anderson had another big game Sunday, a mark-your-territory effort if there ever was one (had he flopped against Miami, it may have encouraged the Browns to start the clock on Brady Quinn). Instead the Browns head into their bye at 3-3 and the status quo lives. The Browns put out the most entertaining (and fantasy-friendly) three hours in the league right now; no one can stop them, they can't stop anyone. Go where the numbers are. Ever notice what Tom Brady does after a touchdown pass? Usually nothing – no pointing to the sky, no Snoopy dance, no silly posturing. Perhaps this is a subtle key to his success – when you play a position that requires calmness and constant focus, no need getting too excited about anything. I can't see how Eric Mangini can continue postpone the inevitable. Kellen Clemens won't save this season, but he'll give the Jets a significant head start on 2008. Jerricho Cotchery, a good player to begin with, stands to gain the most from a switch to Clemens Quick Hits: Devin Hester isn't real, kids. A video-game company made him up . . . Brian Griese may not be a savior, but he's produced in two straight weeks, and he faces Detroit's Cover-0 next week . . . Winning team, good defense, drive-and-staff offense; that's the formula Matt Stover has been cashing in on for years . . . When I watch Matt Jones, the words "sunk cost" jump out at me – scaling higher than Jones does on one of those ill-conceived fade passes around the goal line . . . Rust or no rust, Vinny Testaverde showed he's still better than David Carr (I suppose that's always going to be true). And with that, Steve Smith lives . . . Not that Randy Moss owners have any reason to be unhappy, but keep in mind he had two touchdowns overturned Sunday in addition to the one that stood up. It was a day of hat tricks around the league, and he was very close to adding his name to the list. Brady has to be pinching himself – Reche Caldwell was his featured receiver last year, for crying out loud . . . The Chiefs allowed some garbage stuff to the Bengals late, but don't be fooled – this is an underrated defense, and at the end of the day, an underrated team. Perhaps the Chiefs can make a run at a winning record again . . . Jeff Garcia still scrambles a bit to make a play, but don't look for rushing yards from him at this point in his career. He's got just 30 of them through six games . . . Cleo Lemon certainly is a work in progress at this stage of his career, but I saw resourcefulness and moxie at Cleveland. Miami should give Lemon some time to establish himself before looking at John Beck in December . . . The Jaguars front seven was gouged in Week 1, but it's been exacting revenge ever since. Find an excuse to not use your runners against this nasty group . . . Imagine how good Jason Campbell would be if his wide receivers could catch. That group handed away a game Washington had no rights losing . . . At the end of the day, Chad Johnson is the mouthiest No. 2 wideout in the league. Still a talent, but T.J. Houshmandzadeh is the soul of that passing game. |
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