Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

October 7, 2007 - October 13, 2007 Archives

By David Ferris

Quarterbacks

Chiefs QB Damon Huard (shoulder) did well enough during the week to be taken off the injury report. He'll start against Cincinnati.

Ravens QB Steve McNair (back) missed practice the last two days, leaving him very questionable for Sunday's date with St. Louis. Many people feel Kyle Boller would fit Baltimore's offense better.

Dolphins QB Trent Green sustained a Type 3 concussion against Houston and is out indefinitely. QB Cleo Lemon starts this week at Cleveland, and rookie QB John Beck may play later in the year.

Cardinals QB Matt Leinart (broken collarbone) is out for the year. The offense is clearly better with Kurt Warner anyway.

Jets QB Chad Pennington (ankle) missed practice time all week and is listed as questionable, though he's expected to play against the Eagles. Pennington needs to play well this week if he's going to hold off a switch to Kellen Clemens.

Rams QB Marc Bulger (ribs) sits for at least another week, setting up Gus Frerotte to start at Baltimore. Bulger may need to dress as the backup, though, with the Rams short at the position.

Panthers QB David Carr (back) practiced Friday and should start against the Cardinals. Old friend Vinny Testaverde, who won a Heisman Trophy back in the leather-helmet days, was signed this week to be the No. 2. Jake Delhomme (elbow) is out for the season.

Minnesota head coach Brad Childress hasn't disclosed his QB starter between Tarvaris Jackson and Kelly Holcomb. Hopefully your Week 6 fortunes aren't tied to that.

49ers QB Alex Smith (shoulder) hopes to return in Week 7.

Falcons QB Byron Leftwich (ankle) should dress for Monday's game with the Giants, though Joey Harrington is confirmed to start.

Running Backs

Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (abdomen) had a good practice week and should go against the Jets. He's listed as probable.

Bengals RB Rudi Johnson (hamstring) did some work Friday and is listed as probable for Sunday's trip to Kansas City. It looks like Johnson will likely go but split time with Kenny Watson.

Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown (foot) is listed as probable, though after Friday's full workout there's no reason not to play him at Cleveland. Green light.

Rams RB Steven Jackson (groin) has worked some this week, though he won't play at Baltimore. There's also talk that Jackson may not be ready until Week 10. Brian Leonard starts in the meantime.

Browns RB Jamal Lewis (foot) didn't practice all week and while he's considered a game-day call against Miami, it would be a surprise if he played. That makes Jason Wright a great waiver-wire rental, staring down the leaky Miami front seven.

Raiders RB LaMont Jordan is struggling mightily with his back – it's been described as "worse than ever" – so don't look for him on the field at San Diego. Justin Fargas and Dominic Rhodes (just off his suspension) figure to split the work.

Jaguars RB Fred Taylor has a nagging groin injury and is considered questionable for Sunday's game with Houston. He didn't practice Friday. Perhaps this will encourage the Jags to finally give Maurice Jones-Drew a heavy afternoon of work.

Texans RB Ahman Green (knee) had a good week and is off the injury report. Houston welcomes him back, as Ron Dayne was plodding around the last few weeks and leaving a ton of yards on the field.

Broncos RB Travis Henry is off this week with the rest of his Denver teammates. After that it's anyone's guess what happens with his pending drug suspension, but don't be surprised if weeks go by before the official ruling is put down. It's too early to drop Henry in any fantasy league, that's the point, though you're wise to speculate on Selvin Young or even Andre Hall.

Patriots RB Laurence Maroney (groin) did some work this week but he's the dreaded game-time decision for Sunday's showdown at Dallas. Given that it's a late game and Sammy Morris has played so well, you probably shouldn't risk it with Maroney in this spot.

Packers RB Vernand Morency (knee) had a full practice Friday, not that you want to touch anyone in this backfield, just too many guys. Brandon Jackson (shin) did some work too but he's no sure thing for Washington. If you have to use someone here, DeShawn Wynn is the best option.

Redskins RB Clinton Portis is off the injury report this week.

Buccaneers RB Michael Pittman (leg) is out for 6-8 weeks, so Earnest Graham by default carries the load for Tampa Bay. Kenneth Darby is No. 2 option, and the Bucs also added Zack Crockett this week.

Receivers

Giants WR Plaxico Burress (ankle) didn't practice again Friday but given what we've seen from him to this point in the year, it would be a major surprise if he didn't go Monday at Atlanta. Bottom line, keep using him until he gives you a reason not to.

Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin (hip) missed another day Friday and is very unlikely to play against the Panthers. Teammate Bryant Johnson figures to go in his place, even as he's dealing with a bruised thigh.

Texans WR Andre Johnson (knee) has made some progress this week and might be able to return for Week 7. He's not expected Sunday against Jacksonville.

All of the Rams receivers seem to be hurt, though WR Torry Holt (knee) returned to practice and seems fine for Baltimore. Isaac Bruce (hamstring) won't play, however, and Drew Bennett (thigh) isn't worth a risk start.

Bears WR Bernard Berrian (foot) had a full day of work Friday after missing the two prior sessions. He's listed as questionable but it looks like he'll start against the Vikings.

Seahawks WR Deion Branch (foot) will miss at least two weeks, which bumps up the value of veteran Bobby Engram.

Redskins WR Antwaan Randle El (hamstring) missed another day Friday and probably won't be ready for Green Bay. Santana Moss (groin) is expected to play, however.

Chiefs WR Eddie Kennison re-aggravated his hamstring last week and won't dress against the Bengals.

Titans WR Brandon Jones (knee) did some work on the side but he's a game-time decision at best for the trip to Tampa Bay.

Browns WR Joe Jurevicius (knee) was limited all week and is questionable at best for Sunday's game with Miami.

Laveranues Coles (knee) was limited during the week but is expected to start against the Eagles.

Patriots WR Donte' Stallworth (knee) was limited again on Friday and is questionable (whatever that means in New England) for Week 6.

Browns TE Kellen Winslow (shoulder) missed some time Friday but he's still expected to go against Miami. You keep using him for sure.

Ravens TE Todd Heap (hamstring) got back to a full practice Friday and looks good for Sunday's running with the Rams.

Falcons TE Alge Crumpler (knee) was limited Friday but should go in Monday's game with the Giants.

49ers TE Vernon Davis (knee) is expected to return after the Week 6 bye.

Eagles TE L.J. Smith (groin) was back at practice this week and might be able to play against the Jets this week.

Packers TE Bubba Franks (knee) was back to full work Friday and will play against Washington.

Seahawks TE Marcus Pollard (leg) is listed as questionable.

Other Positions

Texans PK Kris Brown has a sore foot (his non-kicking foot, as it were) and while not 100 percent, he's expected to play this weekend.

Saints PK Olindo Mare (groin) passed the late-week tests and will stick with the Saints, at least for another week.

Dolphins PK Jay Feely is less than 100 percent but will go at Cleveland. He's quietly made his last 21 field-goal attempts, for what it's worth.

Jaguars PK Josh Scobee (quad) isn't ready to return yet.

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By David Ferris

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Updated 10/13/07

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Tom Brady, NE at DAL
2. Carson Palmer, CIN at KC
3. Eli Manning, NYG at ATL
4. Tony Romo, DAL vs. NE
NOTE: Has short memory needed at this position.
5. Donovan McNabb, PHI at NYJ

>> Continue reading: Updated position-by-position player rankings

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By Michael Salfino

On Columbus Day weekend in the NFL that last “s” did not stand for “scoring,” as fantasy points were at a yearly low. But there are winners and losers every week and we learn as much from slow weeks as from ones where the points come fast and furious.

Upgrade

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs: He’s LaDainian Tomlinson this year without the TDs. That was a huge compliment about a month and a half ago. You have to suck it up and hope he dominates the terrible run defenses of Cincinnati and Oakland the next two weeks before the bye, which gives you two weeks to trade him for 80 cents on the dollar instead of the 50 you’d get now.

Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos: Hasn’t scored, but has a solid YPA. The loss of Travis Henry looms. Javon Walker should come back after the bye and the defense is very banged up, especially in the secondary. All the fundamentals are there for Cutler to be a sleeper QB the second half of the fantasy season. But it will get worse before it gets better versus the Steelers in Week 7 after the bye.

Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers: He’s be a Top 5 guy if he was listed among receivers, given his 40 catches (on pace for 128). I’d only take Moss ahead of him right now in non-TE leagues. The Chargers defense is one of the league’s worst versus the pass when measured by YPA against. So, Rivers will keep having to throw a lot more and should keep chucking it to the most uncoverable receiver in the sport – too fast for linebackers, too athletic for safeties, too big for corners.

Kellen Clemens, QB, Jets: The Jets will be 1-5 after the loss to Philly on Sunday. Then they have to stare down the barrel at Washington, Pittsburgh and Dallas around a bye. The season is officially a disaster. Eric Mangini must bench Chad “Pop-Gun” Pennington so that Clemens can build some confidence up against the terrible Bills and Bengals defenses and go from there. The Jets receivers are tremendous.

Jerious Norwood, RB, Falcons: Keeps getting promised more carries and Warrick Dunn (age 32) is officially Done at 3.4 yards per attempt. The offense is terrible and Norwood likely will not get goal-line work. But he’ll be worthy of playing in deep leagues should the Falcons decide to bench or trade (back to Tampa Bay?) Dunn.

Kevin Jones, RB, Lions: Detroit’s offense looked lost last week, but Jones was a semi-bright spot. He’s healthy enough now to get at least 60 or 70 percent of the carries, which is all feature backs get nowadays anyway. And the goal-line stuff he owns already.

Kellen Winslow, TE, Browns: As long as impressive QB Derek Anderson is in there, I love him. Forget the shoulder, he’s playing through the pain. He’s on the field and standing upright on every third down and hurry-up drive. The Browns will need to quicken the pace a lot because their defense is very bad. You rarely see consistent production from a TE five weeks running as we’ve seen with Winslow. With Joe Jurevicius battling a knee injury, he’s now the No. 1 option in the red zone, too.

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants: Forget the ankle. He’s playing through it. Don’t concern yourself with the missed practices – Sterling Sharpe did that once for almost an entire season and didn’t miss a beat. Bottom line: 7 TDs on just 24 catches and he is saving his biggest plays for late, so it’s not like the ankle is limiting him as Sunday wears on.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts: I’d stash him in deep leagues as he will be on the field on third downs and an injury to any one of three guys gets him there on first and second downs, too. Peyton Manning looked very comfortable throwing to him on Sunday. Marvin Harrison is rumored to have an Andre Johnson-like knee sprain and Johnson is set to miss his fourth straight week.

No Change

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts: Yes, any competent runner can pile up stats in the Colts offense with defenses placing all eyeballs on Peyton Manning at all times. But Kenton Keith’s performance is unlikely, in my opinion, to cut into Addai’s workload because Addai is a pup, the Colts are cruising and he’s done nothing to deserve a reduction. Addai is also better in pass protection and swinging out of the backfield, as Manning was frustrated at least once by Keith running a wrong route.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: He’s the only healthy, starting back averaging over 5.0 per pop. The loss of QB Trent Green (severe concussion) hurts and there are rumors he might not play again. For as long as he’s out, defenses will not respect the pass versus backup Cleo Lemon or 26-year-old rookie John Beck. He’ll remain at least the top 10 back I hoped he’d be in August, but this is a passing year.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers: Tough break for his owners as he pulled his hammy in pre-game warm-ups, but all indications are he’ll be ready to roll after the bye this week.

Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals: I’m not going to turn the quiet day against the bad Rams defense into a justification for my preseason statement that he was ready for the glue factory. I was wrong. He’s productive and still has tread on the tires, leading the NFC in first downs.

Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals: He should be a starter in 12-team leagues. He looks to be near Rams form and has two All-World talents at WR. The Cards have also allowed only five sacks this year.

Downgrade

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers: You can rationalize away Najeh Davenport's two short, Week 5 TDs. “Parker was tired after the long run to the one.” But there was timeout after a booth challenge and Davenport was stuffed on first down. “Parker was tired after three runs to get them down the five.” Okay, but what prime-time back gets winded when he’s on the doorstep? Read the writing on the wall.

Roy Williams, WR, Lions: The Lions can’t protect the passer, 19 sacks allowed and last in protecting the QB even when you adjust for their many attempts. That means shorter routes or a big increase in their league-low 31 percent running plays. Williams owners should root for max protection, but Martz is wedded to flooding the secondary with five receivers.

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By David Ferris

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.
* = check status

Quarterback
1. Tom Brady, NE at DAL
2. Carson Palmer, CIN at KC
3. Eli Manning, NYG at ATL
4. Tony Romo, DAL vs. NE
NOTE: Has short memory needed at this position.
5. Donovan McNabb, PHI at NYJ

>> Continue reading: Position-by-position player rankings for Week 6

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By Michael Salfino

There's at least 25 percent of the season in the books for every team, and almost a third of it for most. So let's take a statistical look around the NFL and assume that current trends will be lasting.

Over many years of analysis, a team that averages more than one yard more per pass attempt than they allow is very likely to be a playoff team. If you're more than two yards better than what you allow (sack yardage included), you're a bona fide Super Bowl contender.

Amazingly, just one team is currently in our playoff-worthy, plus-1 to plus-2 tier: the Houston Texans. But the Super Bowl-tier of teams that have a YPA differential of at least plus-2 yards is uncharacteristically crowded: Patriots, Cowboys, Colts, Steelers, Buccaneers and Redskins.

What about the bad (minus-1 YPA differential) and horribly bad teams (minus-2 or worse). The merely bad are the Falcons, Ravens, Vikings and Jets. The horribly bad: the Bills, Bears, Rams and Niners. And in their own special category of badness, clocking in at an almost unfathomable minus-4.5 yards per attempt: the New Orleans Saints.

Looking only at the defenses, here are the teams you don't want to pass against when measured by YPA: the Redskins, Steelers, Titans, Bucs and Patriots. They all have provided devilish matchups thus far for any QB and WR corps.

Fun to pass against are the Saints, Jets, Bears, Chargers and Bills. Everyone is blaming Norv Turner and the offense for the early trouble in San Diego. But the pass defense seems more to blame. Similarly, the pass defense of the Bears has been more disappointing than even the QB play of Rex Grossman, who we all knew was a problem.

When looking at yards per rushing attempt allowed, the easy marks for running backs are the Bengals, Raiders, Broncos, Browns and Bills. Conversely, runners find a veritable brick wall when slamming into the front sevens of the Vikings, Ravens, Eagles, Giants and Saints. See what a great run defense buys you, New Orleans? Bupkis.

As for league-wide trends, it's easier to throw the ball this year in the NFL (6.6 net YPA on average versus 6.4 last year) and harder to run it (4.07 per carry this year, 4.16 in 2006). Both points per game (21) and yards per game (325) are up very slightly for the average team compared to 2006.

Now lets look at stats for some individual performers.

Buy

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: He's averaging a TD on 10 percent of his attempts. When Peyton Manning set the NFL record with 49 TD passes in 2004, he tossed a TD on 9.9 percent of attempts. This is Brady's Sgt. Pepper year.

Andre Davis, WR, Texans: The Andre Johnson injury is lingering. Davis has stepped into the void, leading the NFL in yards per catch (20.5). Just behind him, in order, are Santonio Holmes (Steelers), Braylon Edwards (Browns), Greg Jennings (Packers) and Antwaan Randle El (Redskins, hamstring).

Derek Anderson, QB, Browns: He's third in the league in TD passes and averaging 7.9 yard per attempt with two great receiving threats (Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow). The only QBs ahead of Anderson in YPA are Brady, Tony Romo (Cowboys), David Garrard (Jaguars), Jeff Garcia (Bucs), Manning and Jon Kitna (Lions).

Hold

Drew Brees, QB, Saints: I'd look for the first selling opportunity, as he has a pathetic 5.25 YPA with one TD toss. Yes, of course he'll get better, but not 2006 better.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: The only healthy, starting back averaging over 5.0 per pop. The loss of QB Trent Green (concussion) would hurt, as he's a professional and defenses will not respect the pass versus backup Cleo Lemon.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Bengals: Leads the NFL in average catches per game (9.9). And he also continues to find the end zone more than Chad Johnson, more highly regarded presumably for his endzone celebrations.

Sell

Cedric Benson, RB, Bears: Averaging a pathetic 3.0 per rush. Other big-name backs under 3.5: LaDainian Tomlinson, Thomas Jones (Jets), Warrick Dunn (Falcons), Larry Johnson (Chiefs) and Rudi Johnson (Bengals).

Jon Kitna, QB, Lions: He's an injury waiting to happen, having been sacked 19 times already this year. Defenses apparently have caught up to Mike Martz's four-WR sets.

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By David Ferris

The Browns might have a Drew Brees/Philip Rivers situation with their quarterbacks. Brady Quinn signed late, you'll remember, and it turns out that Derek Anderson is better than anyone realized, directing wins over Baltimore and Cincinnati. And while Cleveland didn't win in New England on Sunday, 22 first downs and 287 passing yards isn't bad against a team that's been steamrolling everyone. Keep in mind Romeo Crennel is coaching for his job – he has no incentive to prematurely turn the season into a lab experiment – and you get the idea the Quinn Era might have to wait until December, if not next year. Fantasy owners tied to Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow want to see Anderson stick as long as possible, of course; while Quinn has a higher upside down the road, rookie quarterbacks are poor fantasy bets when they're asked to play in Season 1.

I'm as big on Joseph Addai as anyone, but Kenton Keith's rampage through the Buccaneers reminds us that the system makes the backfield star in Indianapolis, not the other way around. The second chapter of the Edgerrin James story – after the knee blowouts – was all about finesse and running lanes, not power.

The Lions offense normally puts up plenty of yards and points, but even on its good days there will be negative plays here – most fantasy defenses are worth using in this spot. Washington's defense is more of a coverage unit than an attack scheme, and still the Redskins collected five sacks, two interceptions, a safety, and a defensive touchdown against Jon Kitna and company Sunday.

Patriots fans probably get a little nauseous when Tom Brady is throwing late in the fourth quarter, but fantasy players will take the extra numbers. It's almost like Bill Belichick is coaching with a huge chip on his shoulder, looking to pound the opposition as emphatically as possible as a post-script to Camera-Gate. New England attempted a fourth-down pass inside of a minute in Sunday's win.

When scouting for a fill-in kicker or defense during the bye weeks, check with the favored teams first. Production at these positions is generally boosted by winning situations; teams trailing in the fourth quarter don't get a lot of sacks or field-goal attempts.

Quick Hits: How many Steve McNair passes does it take to cross the road? The hobblin' Raven got just five yards per attempt at San Francisco . . . Shaun Alexander is slower than dial-up internet. His days as a true difference-maker are done for good . . . The hip-hop community in Miami must have loved the Ted Ginn/Cleo Lemon hookup, rolling with Ginn and Juice . . . Matt Leinart's broken collarbone clearly upgrades the entire Arizona offense immediately – Kurt Warner is a better fit for the offense, and he's processing information much faster than the second-year lefty. The Cardinals also have a cushy upcoming schedule against the pass . . . In a nutshell Dwayne Bowe is this year's Marques Colston. Bowe certainly doesn't have the ideal set-up Colston did, but Bowe is faster and stronger, and a better long-term commodity . . . Owen Daniels wasn't used much in Week 1, but he's been dynamite since (23 catches, 269 yards). The Texans can't stop raving about the second-year tight end . . . Maurice Jones-Drew owners can exhale now. But don't get too content – Greg Jones was stealing short-yardage and fourth-quarter touches in the win at Kansas City. It matters not that Jones is an ordinary, disposable back – if the Jaguars trust him in this role, it's going to take away from Fred Taylor and MJD . . . It might be too late to talk Larry Johnson owners off the ledge. But he will run well against Cincinnati and Oakland the next two weeks, book it . . . At first glance LenDale White and Chris Brown both had the same forgettable day Sunday, but keep in mind Brown added a TD to his line (scoring without much blocking), and White lost a fumble, his second of the year . . . Was Cam Cameron playing Psychology 101 with Ronnie Brown in the summer, or was the new head coach wearing his Mr. Magoo glasses? Hard to say, but Brown has finally ended all the silly talk about a platoon with Jesse Chatman (out of football last year) . . . Ike Hilliard's rejuvenation takes a slice of Joey Galloway's fantasy value, notable when you consider that the Bucs don't want to throw the ball more than 25 times a week if they don't have to. Even in Sunday's blowout loss at Indy, the Bucs chucked it just 27 times. Tampa Bay also has a stud talent in tight end Alex Smith, though he's criminally underused at times.

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