Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Note that some of you are seeing this piece a day early this week because of the Thursday Night season kickoff (Saints at Colts). Now let's look at some players in the news as the sun is rising on NFL 2007.

Upgrade

Hines Ward, WR, Steelers: I've seen drafts and even been in some where rising Steeler WR Santonio Holmes is being taken ahead of Ward. Okay, Ward had surgery on a broken nose. Not a big deal. (Easy for me to say.) Ward is 32, but not old for a receiver and still clearly the main man in Pittsburgh. I do think Roethlisberger has a big-bounce back, 22-to-25 TD season. But Ward is almost guaranteed to outperform Holmes this year. Holmes is only a good value relative to Ward being drafted at least two rounds earlier. He's in no way a better draft bet than Ward.

Neil Rackers, K, Cardinals: It's home-run derby when Rackers kicks off. The returners are like left fielders just standing still and watching the ball sail over their heads. Of course, Rackers can boom long-distance field goals, too. He's at a discount because of a sub-par 2006; but everything is lined up for him to again be the game's most dominant kicker: talent, kicking environment, offense, schedule…. And he has a late bye, a huge plus because you should NEVER draft two kickers.

David Patten, WR, Saints: I like him as a pocket pick. It looks like he'll be a No. 3 receiver at worst and maybe a No. 2 if Devery Henderson can't stay healthy. Henderson, as my colleague Scott Pianowski points out, might be a one-trick pony with the long ball. Patten can be a veteran, stabilizing influence for the Saints very young receiving corps. Forget about rookie first-rounder Robert Meachem, who had minor knee surgery earlier this summer and never moved up the depth chart. If a rookie receiver doesn't come out of camp with a very defined role, his season is almost certain to be a total washout.

No Change

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs: Forget about reports he'll share more carries in Week 1 after the holdout. That's a short-term deal. Damon Huard being elevated to starter is good news only when the alternative is Brodie Croyle, a former third-round pick clearly overwhelmed by even vanilla preseason defenses. QB could definitely be a problem with Huard if his 2006 was a fluke. The offensive line is a major question mark for the first time in years. I'm not worried about the magical 400-carry threshold. That's just an arbitrary number. And if it's such a big deal, why not predict doom and gloom for a guy like LaDainian Tomlinson who gets almost as many touches (carries plus catches)?

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: Man, is he slip-sliding down the draft board. No one is happy about taking him even though everyone respects his talent and his production when healthy in 2006 (seven TDs in eight games). But health is the rub with Portis, still young and fast. Another problem for Portis owners is Ladell Betts, who proved last year that he deserves more than backup status. But then so did this next guy ...

Michael Turner, RB, Chargers: His high-ankle sprain was rumored to keep him out until October. Now, he may go in Week 1. This bears watching. A healthy Turner plus an injured LaDainian Tomlinson equals a fantasy championship for all Turner owners. It's that simple. Of course, Turner is unrestricted next year in free agency and will absolutely be starting somewhere interesting in 2008 no matter what happens to LT in 2007.

Downgrade

Ronald Curry, WR, Raiders: A fast riser in some educated circles. Daunte Culpepper is the starter in Oakland and that's good news considering the alternatives and how Culpepper looked this summer. The Raiders seem to have a more professional coaching staff this year, but it's very inexperienced. There's enough uncertainty to make me uncomfortable thinking of Curry as anything more than a No. 4 receiver, which means I lose him in almost every draft. I can live with that.

Shayne Graham, K, Bengals: He's iffy this week with a sore hip but should go. You can't be looking at Week 1 injury reports for your kicker. You have enough real players to worry about. Let someone else deal with the aggravation even though Graham could easily be a top five kicker. But then, so can about 15 or 20 other guys.

Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets: All eyes are on Chad Pennington to see if the terrible preseason was a fluke. We hoped his arm strength would return to pre-injury level (still sub-par), but were disappointed. Meanwhile, rising second-year QB Kellen Clemens must have looked to head coach Eric Mangini just like Tom Brady 2001. Will Mangini wait to see if injury forces his hand like it did for his mentor Bill Belichick that year or eye a switch on merit? Clemens can make all the throws. But does he have enough of the intangibles that Pennington so clearly possesses? The Jets pass protection is also an area of concern. Cotchery can smoothly operate in the intermediate area of the field, but needs the right QB.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: There were reports that he was going to be cut, but that proved to just be a wild, unfounded rumor. Moss, though, didn't get on the field the entire preseason. This was not how the marriage to Tom Brady was supposed to begin. There's no honeymoon period with the bullets now flying for real. I'm concerned that Moss's leg injuries are chronic and that his career as a reliable fantasy weapon are over. I'll pass and am no longer too worried about someone beating me with him. But if he could ever stay off the injury report three weeks running, I'd be a buyer. Of course then, it's too late.

---