Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

September 30, 2007 - October 6, 2007 Archives

By Michael Salfino

It's time to accept that much of what's happening on Sunday afternoons is more likely lasting than not. Preseason projections have lost much of their meaning. Don't stick stubbornly to what you thought in August, when we all were guessing even more than now.

Upgrade

Dallas Clark, TE, Colts: I thought he was too old for a breakthrough at 28. I overvalued his bad rate at converting passes thrown to him in 2006. And I overestimated the impact first-round pick Anthony Gonzalez as a slot receiver. Hopefully, you ignored me and drafted Clark anyway. If so, keep him. He's Peyton Manning's roommate. I wish I could get a list of who rooms with every QB.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: He looked like a man against boys versus the Chargers, but San Diego folded their tents in that game. The Chiefs passing game is not good and Eddie Kennison is due back while Tony Gonzalez also asserted himself. If Bowe's on your waiver wire, grab him. But if you need to trade for him, pay no more than 50 cents on the dollar for what you saw last week.

Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals: Friend and colleague Scott Pianowski observed that Matt Leinart looks like he's driving 35 miles in the fast lane compared to Warner when it comes to reading the defense and releasing the pigskin. Lots of mainstream media guys are rhapsodizing about coach Ken Whisenhunt's two-QB rotation. But it's still stupid. The only thing that makes it smart is that it gets Leinart out of there. So then the question is, "Why not get him out of there the whole game?" You can't lie to your team and tell them every day that you're playing the players who give the team the best chance to win while the guy who the team sees is the best QB by a country mile wears a headset most of the game. The Cardinals are good enough everywhere else to contend for the playoffs in a weak division. But only if they play their best QB, which shouldn't be this complicated.

Brett Favre, QB, Packers: Time for my weekly Favre apology. I don't understand it. But after three straight weeks, I must respect it. He's found a second wind at age 38 after having two good years in the last 10. He's throwing 58 percent of the time on first down, 80 percent of the time in the red zone, more than the Packers run in every quarter and even about 70 percent of the time when the Packers are up a score. And there's no running game in sight. So even if the Packers are anywhere near as good as their 4-0 record indicates, he will get close to last year's 600 attempts.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: That 11th-hour rumor that he was being cut combined with another leg injury that made it seem like he was either chronically injured or dogging it again dropped his stock to bargain levels. Now, he's the player most likely to lead his team to a fantasy championship (considering he cost, at most, a third-round pick). Moss is having a second act, which is very rare in sports and entertainment. He's like Sinatra in the 1950s. Like Muhammad Ali in Zaire. Like, heck, Favre in 2007.

Selvin Young, RB, Broncos: He needs one thing to happen to have a huge impact on the fantasy season: a Travis Henry injury. Mike Shanahan loves him, though we should caution that Shanahan falls in and out of love with his backs like a fickle schoolgirl. Forget that Young is an undrafted rookie. Henry has already been banged up a couple of times and is 29 this month.

Patrick Crayton, WR, Cowboys: Yes, an awesome week against the pathetic Rams secondary. But the Cowboys want to run a lot with the two-headed backfield and Terrell Owens is going to be the No. 1 receiver by a mile. TE Jason Witten is Tony Romo's roomie on the road (my new stat!) and will likely continue to be targeted near paydirt. Most weeks, Crayton will be an afterthought.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: You never want to make too much of one game, let alone one play. However, Brown looked like a No. 2 overall pick when he ran over a Raider at the goal line and relished the Earl Campbell impression with an emphatic spike. This is still not a good situation for a back because the offense isn't very good and the defense suddenly stinks. But Brown is a top 10 fantasy back in a historically weak running back year, at least thus far.

Vernon Davis, TE, Niners: Trent Dilfer can't hurt. Don't downgrade Davis for losing Alex Smith, probably the worst of the NFL starting QBs. Vets like Dilfer like to work inside out from the TE position.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers: Well, he is better than Hines Ward now, as Ward is injured. So, you couldn't really overdraft Holmes after all. He plays big and fast and has a good QB feeding him the ball, which is everything you need.

No Change

Duante Culpepper, QB, Raiders: He'll have bad karma now for the ridiculous final TD he rubbed in the Dolphins faces. But he still may not have the starting job. He completed five passes for 75 yards last week and do you really think he's going to keep making plays running with that spaghetti knee?

Bobby Engram, WR, Seahawks: He's getting targets but isn't starting. So, he's an emergency play at best because you can't normally start No. 3 WRs on winning teams that play a base two-WR offense.

Steve McNair, QB, Ravens: Forget the passing yards. He stinks. The Browns are getting smoked by everyone defensively and McNair can only manage one TD. McNair also averaged less than six yards per attempt last week, too. You don't get any credit here unless you're at least over 7.0 - versus a good team.

Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets: Chad Pennington refuses to throw the ball downfield (very likely because he knows he can't). But Cotchery is still a playmaker and will get lots of opportunities. He's a better red-zone receiver than Laveraneus Coles, despite the early TD returns, where Coles is trouncing him 4-0.

Downgrade

Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: Jake Delhomme seems to be putting off the inevitable elbow surgery. In the likely event he can't get better by rubbing dirt on it, the "Terrible, No Good, Horrible, Very Bad" David Carr gets to ruin Smith's season. Smith saw it coming on Sunday and started screaming at the coaches. But they're stuck with Carr for now, too.

LaMont Jordan, RB, Raiders: The back turned out to be the problem we predicted last week. Coach Lane Kiffin said that Dominic Rhodes will be active after the bye and that "in two weeks, we get a chance to take a look at (rookie) Michael Bush (leg)." Add in Justin Fargas, who ran wild after Jordan was carted off, and you have a four-man mess.

Derrick Ward, RB, Giants: He's a committee guy now with Brandon Jacobs returning from his knee injury this week. But don't release him. He deserves at least half the carries and very well may get that, as Jacobs hasn't come close to proving he can be a feature back.

By David Ferris

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Tom Brady, NE vs. CLE
2. Peyton Manning, IND vs. TB
3. Tony Romo, DAL at BUF
NOTE: As likeable as ice cream.
4. Brett Favre, GB vs. CHI
NOTE: They've junked the running game.
5. *Eli Manning, NYG vs. NYJ
6. Jon Kitna, DET at WAS
7. Jason Campbell, WAS vs. DET
UPGRADE: Hello, Detroit secondary.
8. Jeff Garcia, TB at IND
9. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA at PIT
10. Vince Young, TEN vs. ATL

>> Continue reading: Week 5 position-by-position player rankings

By Michael Salfino

Getting into the red zone is more important than what you do there.

There’s a purple zone, if you will, somewhere before the opponent’s 20. I can only guess at where it is, given the lack of good data for other areas of the field. But my best guess is midfield to the defense’s 35-yard line.

This year, the Saints, the Cardinals and the Panthers have the biggest, positive percentage differential between scoring TDs and allowing them on red zone possessions. Those teams are a combined 3-8. Conversely, the Patriots, the Cowboys, the Steelers and the Colts lead the NFL in the difference between the number of red zone trips they’ve made versus allowed. Those teams are a combined 15-1.

The Patriots, the Colts and the Lions lead the NFL with 20 red-zone trips. The Bills and the Saints have the fewest, five, but the Saints have played one less game. The Bills have allowed opposing offenses 18 red-zone visits, the Browns and the Bears (shockingly) 17 each. Don’t be afraid of the Bears defense.

Teams generally run more than they pass once they enter the red zone. The most extreme example is the Buccaneers, who’ve run 33 times versus just 6 passes. Other extreme red-zone run teams are the Titans (29-13), the Bills (14-6), the Raiders (24-12), the Redskins (13-7) and the Patriots (39-21).

The most extreme passing team in the red zone by a million miles is the Packers (27 passes, 9 runs). After them are the Giants (24-15) and the Ravens (29-22). The other teams that pass more than they run in the red zone are the Bengals, the Steelers, the Chargers, the Eagles, the Cardinals, the Bears, the Lions, the Saints and the Seahawks. This latter grouping does it just barely.

Now let’s make some recommendations based on our red zone stats.

Buy

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: Calling a bottom here. He’s averaged five red zone touches per game, a respectable number that implies the TDs are coming.

Joe Jurevicius, WR, Browns: He has three red zone TDs already as the more heralded Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow have combined for just one red zone catch. All bets are off once Brady Quinn gets promoted.

Ernest Graham, RB, Bucs: A bowling ball of a runner. Cadillac Williams is out for the year. Jon Gruden reportedly went fishing for Corey Dillon, but came up empty.

Hold

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: He already has nine TD passes here on his 21 red zone attempts as he and Randy Moss are becoming the Lennon-McCartney of the passing game.

Sammy Morris, RB, Patriots: Twice as many red zone carries as Laurence Maroney, who missed Week 4 with an injured groin.

Todd Heap, TE, Ravens: Derrick Mason having six red zone catches to Heap’s one is a joke, as Heap has proven he can make plays even when he appears to be covered.

The Bengals Offense: Six red zone snaps per game is alarming; the Patriots have five red zone possessions per game. The Bengals must score a lot to be even competitive.

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers: Averaging 1.7 yards per pop in the red zone with one TD. Ben Roethlisbeger sports a 66 QB rating here, completing just 40 percent of his passes. Najeh Davenport might be worked in for the easy scores.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: Even though he’s averaging 4.7 yards on seven red zone carries with three TDs, Joe Gibbs says he’s interchangeable with Ladell Betts (negative yards on five red zone carries).

Sell

Vince Young, QB, Titans: Have to respect the stats. Has just two red zone rushing attempts, so forget those projections for anything approaching double-digit rushing TDs.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Even a superstar talent can’t find the end zone close to 10 times in an offense averaging less than three red zone snaps per game.

Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns: He has 11 yards on 11 red zone carries and has historically struggled near the goal line and in short yardage despite his size. The Browns defense stinks and this will limit his overall workload.

Frank Gore, RB, Niners: Trent Dilfer won’t be the answer. Alex Smith should have been benched before his shoulder injury (0 completions on 7 red zone attempts). This offense is painful to watch so he’s in the same situation as Peterson, with less talent.

By David Ferris

Steve McNair had one of the worst 300-yard passing games I've ever seen; the Ravens couldn't stretch the field vertically against one of the worst back sevens in the league and wound up with just one crummy touchdown. McNair completed 18 passes to his top three wideouts, but those connections went for less than 10 yards a pop. This offense would be significantly better, long term, with Kyle Boller pitching the pig, but is Brian Billick open-minded enough to make the switch?

Dwayne Bowe, wow. The Chiefs rookie wideout was easily the most impressive skill player I saw in Week 4; size of a tight end, speed of a receiver, plays with an edge. It's one thing to collect a bunch of numbers (eight catches, 164 yards), but he was jumping off the screen on just about every grab. Bowe also has some panache to his game -- witness how he mimicked the LaDainian Tomlinson end-zone flip on the game-clinching touchdown. In some thinner fantasy leagues, Bowe still might be available on the free-agent wire.

It's amazing that Dallas Clark has never been a Top 10 fantasy tight end for the course of a full season, but if he can stay healthy for the balance of 2007, he'll blow that out of the water. He's really just a tight end in name only -- the Colts use him as a slot specialist -- and he's deadly working down the seam against overmatched linebackers. Of course Peyton Manning helps the cause significantly; no one is better at looking off the safety than Manning, which means Clark only needs one half-step on his man for a potentially-explosive play.

Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery would be good fantasy plays in any context, but they get a bump forward in New York as the only show in town. The Jets don't use tight end Chris Baker as a receiver much -- protecting the immobile Chad Pennington takes precedence -- and there isn't a third wideout on the roster that worries opposing secondaries.

David Carr doesn't have the arm or anticipation to consistently make intermediate and deep throws in this league. We saw how he torpedoed the home-run ability of Andre Johnson in Houston, and he'll hold Steve Smith back if Jake Delhomme doesn't heal quickly.

Give credit to the Dallas coaching staff for quickly ironing out the mechanical flaws and bad habits Tony Romo fell into at the tail end of 2006. Through one month of play, he's right there in the MVP argument.

I'm not surprised that Brett Favre can still make big plays in the passing game, but I am surprised that he's doing it in such an error-free manner, especially without any support whatsoever in the running game. The deep stable of receiving options helps a lot, of course, but credit Favre for sharpening his focus and making less reckless throws.

Quick Hits: Derek Anderson has played pretty well for the Browns through three weeks, which automatically delays the Brady Quinn premier (Romeo Crennel is probably coaching for his job anyway). You have to wonder how the Browns had a full summer with Anderson and Charlie Frye and yet still handed Frye the starting assignment against Pittsburgh . . . Bernard Berrian has the wheels and the head of a star wideout, but the hands aren't there yet. He's dropping big gainers every week . . . It's just one game, but Brian Griese was making throws that his arm couldn't cash against the Lions. He also held onto the ball far too long on a few of the sacks; in short, he was just as error-prone as Rex Grossman had been the first three weeks . . . The Ravens defense doesn't match up to the name brand anymore. It's one thing when the Bengals slice and dice you, but Kurt Warner and Derek Anderson have embarrassed this unit in the last two weeks . . . It took longer than it should have, but Deion Branch is finally in tune with Matt Hasselbeck (20 catches, 329 yards over the last three weeks) . . . Atlanta made a solid move adding Byron Leftwich, but he's not gifted enough to step into a new offense immediately, and the way Joey Harrington has played the last two games, there's no reason to force the issue. Harrington's getting far more out of his wide receivers than Michael Vick ever did . . . Ken Whisenhunt's quarterback shuffle is a cockamamie idea, but he's 1-0 employing it so the plan sticks. Warner gives the Cardinals a better chance to compete today -- Matt Leinart's not processing information quickly enough to consistently be productive -- and deserves to be the guy for now.