Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

September 12, 2007 Archives

Steve McNair is not the downfield thrower he used to be. We expect TV announcers to live in a player's past. But Ravens coach Brian Billick has no excuse.

During Monday night's telecast, ESPN noted McNair had a NFL-best 115.1 rating on passes over 21 yards from scrimmage in 2006 (it was really 89.4, far below Drew Brees' NFL best mark on deep passes). The announcers admonished Brian Billick for not giving McNair enough chances to heave.

Even if ESPN wasn't so far off on their own numbers (mine came from their Web site), they've ignored the law of large numbers. Small numbers are viewed with great skepticism in statistics. So, in sports, when you're told someone is great at doing something that he doesn't get a chance to do nearly enough, question whether he's really all that good at it in the first place.

In other words, what McNair did on 38 random passes in 2006 means very little. And when we expand the sample of passes over 21 yards from scrimmage to include those he threw in 2005, his attempts go up to 81 and his cumulative QB rating drops from 89.4 to 57.4, far below the NFL average of 69.4 on these deep throws since '05.

To get better numbers to gauge QB arm strength, I look at passes thrown 11-to-20 yard from scrimmage because that doubles the number of plays we're looking at (to about 20 percent of all attempts).

Let's examine top TD throwers of 2006 and see if Functional Arm Strength (as I define it) played a significant part in their success. Also, let's see if there's some reasonable consistency from year to year.

Last year, the most prolific scoring passers were Peyton Manning (120.3 QB rating on 11-to-20 yard passes in 2006, 85.2 in '05), Carson Palmer (88.3 last year, 130.9 in '05), Drew Brees (100.8, 116.2) and Marc Bulger (98.6, 84.3). Seems like a useful stat. And it gets better if you pro-rate and include Tony Romo (29 TD-pass pace last year as starter). Romo had a 108.9 rating on 11-to-20-yard passes in '05 and clocked in at 156.3 with three TD passes on tosses that distance Sunday night.

Of course the confidence the announcers and Billick apparently had in McNair proved unfounded, as he badly overthrew an open receiver on a deeper throw in the final minutes, resulting in a pick and long return that set the stage for Cincy's winning TD.

The Bengals forced six turnovers versus Baltimore. In 2005 they forced 43 before falling back to 29 last year. Only the Vikings and the Bears have been consistently in the mid-30s in takeaways the past two seasons. Even the vaunted Ravens defense forced just 23 turnovers in 2005. Takeaways appear to be quite random.

Now some player recommendations.

Buy

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: We told you last year about Brady's huge performance decline in 11-to-20 yard passes. Maybe it was his shoulder, or his garbage receivers. On Sunday, on passes over 11 yards from scrimmage: 8-for-9 for 183 yards and a TD. Times have changed.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills: I bet all summer that the Bills were full of it when they said Anthony Thomas (minus-1 yard) was in line for serious committee work. Lynch (21 touches) seems as much a feature back as anyone.

Hold

Lee Evans, WR, Bills: When your passing game is going up against the Broncos, points will be hard to come by. Sure, Evans just missed a long TD. But five total yards stings. Shake it off.

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants: Believe nothing you hear from the Giants about Eli Manning's shoulder injury until you see him on the field, which is rumored to be this week, next month or, gulp, next year.

Marc Bulger, QB, Rams: I was all set to sound the alarm before realizing Bulger threw 10 TD passes in December last year without LT Orlando Pace (out for the season). Steven Jackson shrugged off Pace's absence last year, too.

Sell

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: The Cardinals ran two-thirds of the time on first down Monday night, which means new coach Ken Whisenhunt is trying to import his 2005 Steelers offense. Fitzgerald isn't even on the field in one-WR sets near the goal line.