Final position-by-position player rankings
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September 2007 ArchivesSeptember 29
By David Ferris Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). 
By David Ferris Quarterbacks Panthers QB Jake Delhomme (elbow) missed the last three days of practice and looks very unlikely to play against Tampa Bay. David Carr will start in his place, much to the chagrin of Steve Smith owners. Vikings QB Kelly Holcomb is expected to start in place of Tarvaris Jackson (groin), though the club continues to play it coy on this front. Packers QB Brett Favre (finger) did fine during the latter part of the week and is a lock to start at Minnesota. Rams QB Marc Bulger (ribs) had a full practice Friday and will start at Dallas. Jets QB Chad Pennington (ankle) was limited in practice all week but is fully expected to start at Buffalo. Raiders QB Daunte Culpepper will start at Miami in place of Josh McCown (broken toe). Bills QB J.P. Losman (knee) is down for a couple of weeks, which puts rookie QB Trent Edwards into the hot seat. Broncos QB Jay Cutler (ankle) had three full practices and will start at Indianapolis. Running Backs Bengals RB Rudi Johnson (hamstring) is listed as out for Monday's showdown with the Patriots, which means Kenny Watson will start. Chiefs RB Larry Johnson (hamstring) did full work Friday and looks fine to take his normal workload Sunday at San Diego. Rams RB Steven Jackson (groin) won't play this week and could miss a few weeks. Rookie RB Brian Leonard starts in his place. Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (abdominal) didn't practice Friday and remains questionable for Sunday night's game against the Giants. He's being called a game-time decision. Westbrook in the past has often been able to play off limited weeks of practice, so there's probably a decent chance he gives it a go, but he's far from a sure thing. Patriots RB Laurence Maroney has a sore groin and was limited in Friday's workout. He's considered questionable for Monday's game at Cincinnati, and given how the Pats handle their injury disclosures, it's difficult to say what exactly that means. Either way, look for RB Sammy Morris to probably get double-digit touches in the game, and perhaps a look at the goal line. Jets RB Thomas Jones (calf) worked in full this week and is ready to roll against a weak Buffalo rushing defense. Use him. Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander will play despite a broken bone in his wrist. Texans RB Ahman Green (knee) missed Friday's practice and although he's listed as questionable, he's too risky for most fantasy owners to look at this week. Ron Dayne and Samkon Gado, by default, figure to carry the load at Atlanta. The Packers backfield should probably be avoided this week. RB Brandon Jackson (shin) is very questionable and didn't practice the last two days. RB Vernand Morency (knee) has returned to practice this week and should play on Sunday, but it remains to be seen how much work he's ready for. Unproven RBs DeShawn Wynn and Ryan Grant will probably split most of the work, but against the elite Minnesota front seven, don't look for them to go anywhere. Vikings RB Chester Taylor (hip) was back at practice Friday and should get a fair amount of work against the Packers, not that I'd start him in any fantasy format this week. Adrian Peterson loses a few touches when Taylor comes back – the Vikings still consider Taylor the starter when both are healthy – but he's still usable as your second back or flex option. Giants RB Brandon Jacobs (knee) made excellent progress this week and might go against Philadelphia, but he's too risky to start in most formats. Lions RB Kevin Jones (foot) is free of the injury report this week and should be ready for more touches against Chicago. Wide Receivers Giants WR Plaxico Burress (ankle) didn't practice Friday and remains questionable, though he's still hoping to go against the Eagles. The Sunday night slot for this game does create a dilemma for fantasy owners, and ultimately your depth at the position makes the call on how you handle Burress. I'm prepared to use him where I normally would. Steelers WR Hines Ward (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday. Look for Nate Washington to pick up his snaps. Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin (hip) didn't practice Friday and is listed as doubtful. Bryant Johnson, a solid player but not in Boldin's class, will start against Pittsburgh. Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (knee) missed some time this week but he's been managing this injury all season and should be ready to go Monday. Jets WR Jerricho Cotchery (shoulder) missed time in each of the last three days, and for the second week in a row he's listed as questionable. He also played with this designation last week, and I'm expecting him to go at Buffalo, but confirm that before kickoff. Packers WR Greg Jennings (hamstring) rested most of the last two days but should play at Minnesota. WR Donald Driver (toe) is also good to use, off a full workout Friday. Broncos WR Javon Walker (knee) probably won't be 100 percent but is expected to go against the Colts. Ravens WR Mark Clayton (calf) practiced Friday and looks ready for Sunday's game with Cleveland. Demetrius Williams (heel) is in the same boat, listed as questionable but coming off a good day Friday. Lions WR Calvin Johnson (back) did some work Friday but remains questionable for Sunday's game with Chicago. It's probably not the best week to risk it on him, even with the Bears defense missing several key players. Patriots WR Donte Stallworth (knee) was limited Friday, and off a slow start to the season probably shouldn't be used in Week 4. Chargers WR Vincent Jackson (back) had a good day Friday and looks fine for Sunday's game against Kansas City. He's also up against a spotty secondary, so don't be afraid of Jackson as your third receiver. The Texans are a mess at receiver, missing Andre Johnson (knee) and Jacoby Jones (shoulder) this week. Return ace Jerome Mathis (leg) is also doubtful. Look for WR Andre Davis and TE Owen Daniels to get plenty of work against the Falcons. Chiefs WR Eddie Kennison (knee) is out for another week. Vikings WR Troy Williamson (hamstring) will play this week, not that he's proven a thing as a fantasy option. Other Positions Ravens TE Todd Heap (calf) had a productive day Friday and should be started for anyone's fantasy team. Browns TE Kellen Winslow is playing through a partially separated shoulder, but nonetheless he expects to go against the Ravens. Colts TE Dallas Clark (quad) was limited Friday but still has a good shot to play Sunday against Denver. 49ers TE Vernon Davis (knee) will not play this week. Packers TE Bubba Franks (knee) had a good workout Friday and will go against Minnesota. Eagles TE L.J. Smith (groin) is out indefinitely. Dolphins TE David Martin (virus) is expected to play Sunday. He's probable. Eagles PK David Akers (quad) should be fine for Sunday's game with the Giants. The Bears defense hobbles into Detroit for Week 4. CB Nathan Vasher (groin) is doubtful and CB Charles Tillman (ankle) is questionable, something the Lions passing game will look to exploit. DT Tommie Harris (knee) might be able to play after getting in some work Friday. LB Lance Briggs (hamstring) is questionable and didn't practice Friday. Safety Adam Archuleta will play despite a broken hand. Dolphins LB Zach Thomas (concussion) is considered a game-time decision for Week 4. Cowboys CB Terence Newman (foot) will probably be available in a limited role against St. Louis, but it's doubtful he'll start. Packers CB Al Harris (back) isn't 100 percent but will play against Minnesota. Eagles CB Lito Sheppard (knee) isn't expected to play. Safety Brian Dawkins (neck) is a game-time decision.
September 27
By Michael Salfino The byes start this week, and owners of Larry Johnson, Lee Evans and a host of others feel like their fantasy season is already bye-bye. Should you hang in there? Sell your dregs for pennies on the dollar? Throw some chum into the free-agent waters in hopes of landing a trophy? Upgrade Brian Leonard, RB, Rams: He's the tailback now with Steven Jackson out. The Rams are likely to be a passing team. Marc Bulger (ribs) is being held together with duct tape and probably needs a week or two to heal if his revamped line can possibly keep him clean. (Bulger says his ribs are fine.) You have to move aggressively on all free-agent running backs with a pulse and hope for the best. When it doesn't work out, as happened last week with DeShawn Wynn, shrug it off because the cost was very low. Bernard Berrian, WR, Bears: He's on pace for 85 catches for 1,170 yards. That's with Rex Grossman, who was emotionally shot. Now, Brian Griese, who is at least a professional, comes in. Griese will feed Berrian the ball more consistently because he'll keep more drives alive than did Grossman. The touchdowns are coming. Act fast, because the Lions secondary (this week's opponent) has been a frightfully easy mark. LaMont Jordan, RB, Raiders: We liked him in the preseason. But I'd be a seller now if I drafted him as my No. 3 RB. The Raiders still stink. There's a revolving door at QB and eventually JaMarcus Russell is going to step through it and it will get ugly. And there's some chance that highly touted Michael Bush (PUP, leg) is healthy enough by November to be activated and work his way into a RB rotation. Plus, Jordan's back acted up last week and that sidelined him for multiple games in 2006. Brett Favre, QB, Packers: I feel like I owe him an apology. But the only thing I'm certain I've gotten wrong about him is the degree to which he'll be passing. While the Packers defense is good, this is likely an Eagles situation where there's no back to carry the load no matter what the score. So Favre is going to get lots of attempts. I still think the past two years (47 interceptions, 38 TDs, 6.3 yards per attempt) are a better indicator of Favre's current ability than the last two weeks (1 pick, 6 TDs, 7.9 YPA). The trip this week into Minnesota will be more telling. No Change Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles: I said he was too expensive in the preseason, preferring the cheaper Kevin Curtis, who, of course, exploded last week like a Fantasy H-Bomb. But Brown owners are too down right now. He'll have his good days. Brian Westbrook can't stay healthy, so you're going to get 60 percent passing plays at least from McNabb. With that kind of ratio and no one threatening his starting job, a 70-1,100-7 TD season for Brown remains likely. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: I downgraded him once for the conservative Cardinals playcalling (still a 59/41 run/pass split in the first quarter of games), as well as for not being on the field near the goal line (Anquan Boldin has been the lone receiver there). But his talent is undeniable and the move to Kurt Warner for at least the no-huddle stuff is going to help him. Let's face it: Matt Leinart looks lost in the new system. He's cheap right now. So I'd be trying to buy for, say, Kevin Curtis or some other flavor of the week. (I do like Curtis for five or six more TDs, making him a very solid WR3 in most leagues.) Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants: His sprained ankle has lingered for eight weeks and he flew to North Carolina to get a second opinion. Don't panic. But he's not practicing and was held without a catch last week until the second half. If not for that, he'd get a second upgrade in this young season to the status of Top 5 fantasy receiver. But keep him in the top 10 for now, as there seems a reasonable chance that he could be slowed all year and/or lose a game around the bye in order to get past the pain. Of course, there's also a some chance that a doctor will find something that will cause him to miss multiple weeks. Downgrade Cadillac Williams, RB, Bucs: Earnest Graham ran roughshod over the Rams in the fourth quarter last week (75 yards, two TDs). Jon Gruden announced that Graham will continue to get carries even when Williams' ribs are fully healed. He seems like a more ideal goal-line back at 5-9, 220; so Williams' fantasy value takes a hit even if that's the limit of Graham's involvement. Williams also fumbled last week, further annoying Gruden. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: I feel like I'm downgrading Clark Kent here. But it has to be done when the head coach says, "Chester (Taylor) is the starter." The Vikes say they'll resume their committee plan as soon as Taylor's injured hip permits, likely this week. The starter doesn't necessarily play more or even an equal amount. But we have to assume for now that Taylor will cut heavily into Peterson's snaps. And there's not a lot of scoring to go around in Minnesota. Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: I'd look for someone who still buys Jacobs as a feature back when he returns. Derrick Ward has done a fair Tiki Barber impersonation for the Giants, both as a runner and receiver. Reuben Droughns proved a capable goal-line guy versus Washington. There's less and less for Jacobs to do when he eventually gets over his sprained knee (out again this week). Vince Young, QB, Titans: He's not even looking to run. Running is fun, Vince! There's so much noise now about how great a real player Young is that it's masking the hit his fantasy value has taken. Young will never throw enough to make up for those lost rushing plays and, especially, rushing TDs. Offensive coordinator Norm Chow continues to stick Young behind center when the numbers all around for Tennessee remain much better when he's in the gun. Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots: I figured Tom Brady would go all Peyton Manning with those shiny new receivers. But I incorrectly assumed that Maroney would be like Joseph Addai and get enough crumbs near the goal-line to be a top fantasy threat. Instead, he's on the field for less than 50 percent of snaps (even in the early going) and has lost goal-line carries to Sammy Morris, of all people. So, instead of being a featured player in New England's blockbuster offense, he's relegated to a supporting role with no breakthrough in sight. And there's no incentive for the Patriots to change a thing.
September 26
By David Ferris Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL. Running Back
September 25
By Michael Salfino The Arizona Cardinals are opting for something rarely tried in NFL history: a QB committee. Back in the early 1950s, Hall of Famers Norm Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield shared a job for the Rams. Legendary coach Tom Landry alternated Roger Staubach and Craig Morton every other play for one game that the Cowboys lost despite gaining 500 yards. End of strategy. Eagles coach Buddy Ryan removed Ron Jaworski on all third and longs more recently in favor of the stronger-armed and fleet Randall Cunningham. Last year, Titans coach Jeff Fisher rotated in Vince Young sporadically the first month. But Young clearly was being groomed to start. The Cardinals Matt Leinart now is the younger QB being spotted for a veteran (Kurt Warner). Coach Ken Whisenhunt says his plan last week was to have Warner run the no-huddle package. Down 23-6 at Baltimore, the entire fourth quarter became Warner's and he finished with 20 attempts and over 250 yards passing (200 more than Leinart compiled in the same number of throws). Warner dramatically rallied the Cards to a tie before Baltimore prevailed on a last-second field goal. Whisenhunt says Leinart is still the starter but that Warner will continue to run the no-huddle, normally the top line of any QB's resume. One other statistical note this week. It's been widely speculated by NFL announcers that the decline in passing statistics since 2004 is related to increased use of blitzes and blitz effectiveness. Relatedly, John Madden speculated Sunday that Tom Brady is more successful this year because teams no longer blitz him due to the presence of Randy Moss. Do the numbers back up these claims? Looking at the sample of starting QBs who played extensively in 2004 and 2006, we see that teams actually blitzed less last year: 28 percent of passing attempts versus 31 percent in 2004. They did blitz more effectively last year, 85.7 average QB rating on blitzes for our sample of passers versus 95.1 in 2004. Brady is being blitzed less thus far: 26 percent of attempts versus 33 percent last year and 37 percent in 2004. His QB rating on blitzes this year is an almost perfect 147.7 versus 89.2 last year and 79.4 in 2004. Curiously, according to Stats Inc., these same QBs are being blitzed just 18 percent of attempts in 2007. And they're being blitzed less effectively (average QB rating of 97.8). Note that these QBs tend to be good because you have to be to keep a job since 2004. Unless, of course, you're Joey Harrington. Now, let's look at the numbers and predict player performance. Buy Marc Bulger, QB, Rams: Rookie Brian Leonard is not getting anywhere near the workload of Steven Jackson (torn groin). Bulger remains a very good QB with Hall of Fame-caliber receivers on a crappy team with a bad defense. Kevin Curtis, WR, Eagles: Unbelievably, he still seems cheap despite the 11-221-3 TD outburst. He would have scored the first two weeks, too, with some average accuracy from Donovan McNabb. Hold LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: The yards only seem impossibly hard to come by. In 2005, he averaged 3.8 or less per carry in four of his first seven games. Hang in there. Lee Evans, WR, Bills: With 5 catches for 29 yards on the year, no one is buying. His new QB is Stanford rookie Trent Edwards, who at least is smart and strong-armed. If he shows nothing this week against the lowly Jets D, feel free to jump off a bridge. Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs: I'm calling a bottom on the LJ market despite the Chargers and Jaguars lining up the next two weeks. He excelled last year (19 TDs) against good defenses with the same coaches and very similar offense personnel. Sell Shaun Alexander, RB, Seahawks: Every injury with Alexander now turns out worse than first reported. He'll play with a heavy cast on his broken wrist. But he's nearing the end, having averaged under 4.0 per carry in 10 of his last 13 games. Reggie Bush, RB, Saints: Deuce McAllister (knee) is likely done for the year. But Aaron Stecker will see action considering Bush's sub-3.0 rushing average between the tackles. The Saints are struggling and there's no guarantee Bush will claim short TDs.
September 24
By David Ferris Fantasy owners always want to follow the points whenever possible, and with that in mind, I present to you the official carnival of the 2007 NFL season: the Detroit Lions. Consider all the fantasy-friendly components here: the offense hasn't really been stopped yet; the defense can't detain anyone; offensive coordinator Mike Martz doesn't bother running the ball, which winds up extending the game. When you're setting your lineup in challenge contests and stock-market leagues, it's important to have at least some shares in the Detroit match, on both sides. Ronald Curry and Kevin Curtis are two examples of good players who looked other-worldly when they found Detroit on their schedule. Denver's Brandon Marshall is the next star receiver in this league, a big, physical, high-motor player who makes tons of yards after the catch. His background as a track star doesn't hurt, either. The Broncos hit a home run with their 2006 fourth-round pick, and the comparisons to Terrell Owens (Marshall's teammates call him "Baby TO") are legitimate. Hold onto this guy with two hands if you're in a keeper league. The Giants backfield looked pretty solid in the win at Washington; Derrick Ward consistently moved the ball between the 20s and Reuben Droughns punched in a couple of short scores. Brandon Jacobs takes a fantasy hit from all this; when he gets back on the field, it's possible he'll be in some sort of a time share. Matt Schaub and Gary Kubiak are really going to be tested over the next few weeks, as the Texans have been devastated by injuries at the offensive skill positions. Receiver Andre Johnson (knee) is the biggest loss, of course, but consider the other names now residing in sick bay: RB Ahman Green (sprained knee), RB Ron Dayne (chest injury) WR Jacoby Jones (dislocated shoulder), WR Andre Davis (dislocated finger). If you have good hands and run decent routes, drop by Reliant Stadium this week. I shrugged when Brett Favre had his way with the Giants secondary last week, but his big afternoon against the Chargers defense (369 yards, three touchdowns, no turnovers) makes him upgrade-worthy. Favre is getting plenty of opportunity to chuck the ball downfield (the Packers running game has been a mess through three weeks), and Green Bay has five quality targets to work with now that Greg Jennings is healthy again. When you hear the common media ramble on about how the Saints need to get back to establishing Deuce McAllister early in games, toss the report in the garbage. McAllister had seven touches on the first 15 snaps last week, and two of them in particular (a lost fumble and a stuff on third-and-short) had a significant role in New Orleans falling behind by multiple scores. The Saints haven't been able to maintain a consistent running game through two weeks, but it's not because the effort isn't being made. Quick Hits
September 22
By David Ferris Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). Updated 9/22/07 * = check status
By David Ferris Quarterbacks Rams QB Marc Bulger had sore ribs after last week's loss to Tampa Bay, but it won't keep him out of the lineup. Pass protection has been a problem for this team through two weeks, however. Ravens QB Steve McNair (groin) had another full practice Friday and has already been confirmed as the Week 3 starter against Arizona. This might not be a good thing for Baltimore's offense, as McNair no longer can make all the throws that Kyle Boller can. Lions QB Jon Kitna (post-concussion) had no problems this week and will go at Philadelphia. Jets QB Chad Pennington (ankle) has been solid in practice this week and looks set for Sunday's game with Miami, an opponent he's done well against throughout his career. Giants QB Eli Manning (shoulder) had a full workout Friday and should be fine for Sunday's game at Washington. Dolphins QB Trent Green was added to the injury report Friday (ankle, probable), but he also had a full practice and should be fine for Sunday's game at the Meadowlands. Raiders QB Josh McCown (finger/foot) is dinged up a bit, but barring a late setback he'll start against Cleveland. He's on a short leash, however, as head coach Lane Kiffin says he won't hesitate to use Daunte Culpepper on game day. Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson (groin) isn't expected to play this week. It's not certain who will go in his place at Kansas City, though context clues point to Kelly Holcomb over Brooks Bollinger. Running Backs Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (knee) did all the work Friday and is expected to play Sunday against the Lions, though he's still tagged as questionable on the injury report. Philadelphia plays an early game, so fantasy owners should be able to confirm Westbrook's status about noon on Sunday. Raiders RB LaMont Jordan (back) had a good day Friday and is listed as probable. Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander (wrist) will play with a cast on his left hand again this week, but there's no reason why he can't take a full load against the Bengals, so use him if you normally would. Texans RB Ahman Green (knee) had a full day of practice Friday and is listed as probable for Sunday's showdown with the Colts. He'll be needed, as Ron Dayne (chest) is considered a game-time decision. Broncos RB Travis Henry has a dinged ankle but it's not expected to limit his workload Sunday against Jacksonville. Vikings RB Chester Taylor (hip) feels he can go at Kansas City Sunday, though he's listed as questionable. Lions RB Kevin Jones (foot) is expected to be available on a limited basis Sunday. Teammate T.J. Duckett (ankle) won't be on the field. Buccaneers RB Carnell Williams will play through sore ribs, again, Sunday against St. Louis. Packers RB Vernand Morency (knee) is doubtful for Week 3 and it would be a surprise if the team dresses him against San Diego. Wide Receivers Texans WR Andre Johnson (knee) won't play this week and could miss up to five games, though his timetable is very hazy for the moment. Rookie WR Jacoby Jones will pick up extra snaps with Johnson out, though the Texans might treat it as a platoon situation and use several different wideouts in expanded roles. TE Owen Daniels also gains extra importance with Johnson out. Giants WR Plaxico Burress (ankle) was limited Friday and is considered a game-time decision for Sunday's game at Washington. WR Sinorice Moss would probably get the call if Burress can't go. Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (knee) had a full practice Friday and should be fine for Sunday's game at Seattle. Redskins WR Santana Moss (undisclosed) missed some practice time Friday but he's not listed on the injury report, so give him a play Sunday against the shaky Giants secondary. Jets WR Jerricho Cotchery (shoulder) missed part of practice the last three days and remains listed as questionable, though no one seems particularly concerned that he'll miss the critical game Sunday with Miami. 49ers WR Darrell Jackson (back) had a full day Friday and is probable for Sunday's game at Pittsburgh. WR Arnaz Battle (groin) is also probable and did well Friday. Patriots WR Donte Stallworth (knee) is considered questionable for Sunday's game with Buffalo. Given what he's done over the first two weeks, you don't want to risk anything on him yet. Packers RB James Jones (hamstring) worked Friday and is considered probable for the Chargers on Sunday. The Packers also could get WR Greg Jennings back; his hamstring has improved and he's listed as probable. Ravens WR Mark Clayton (toe) had a good day of practice Friday, though it's impossible to use him for fantasy purposes off two no-show weeks. Jaguars WR Matt Jones (heel) had a good workout Friday, though he's still buried on the team's depth chart. Vikings WR Troy Williamson (hamstring) was limited during the practice week and shouldn't be in anyone's fantasy lineup Sunday. Chiefs WR Eddie Kennison (hamstring) is out for another week. Cowboys WR Terry Glenn (knee) hopes to come back in 4-6 weeks. Seahawks WR D.J. Hackett (ankle) isn't expected to be available this week. Other Positions Colts TE Dallas Clark (neck) was back at practice Friday in full, though he's considered questionable for Sunday's game with Houston. Unless you have another strong option for Week 3, I'd roll with him. Eagles TE L.J. Smith had groin surgery Friday and is out indefinitely. Bears TE Greg Olsen (knee) has improved this week and should make his NFL debut Sunday night against Dallas. Redskins OT Randy Thomas (triceps) is out indefinitely, the second major hit to the Washington offensive line this year. Falcons DT Rod Coleman (knee) won't go this week, a plus for the Panthers running game. Raiders DL Derrick Burgess (calf) is questionable for Week 3. Dolphins LB Zach Thomas (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's trip to New Jersey. 49ers LB Manny Lawson (knee) is out for the year. Cowboys CB Terence Newman (foot) looks like a game-time decision for Sunday's game at Chicago.
September 20
By Michael Salfino Bill Parcells once famously said that until you win your first game, you seriously wonder if you ever will. If you're 0-2 right now in this very young fantasy season, you know exactly what he meant. But, with apologies to Douglas Adams: Don't Panic! Upgrade Donte Stallworth, WR, Patriots: He got more snaps last week than Wes Welker. Yes, everything he can do, someone else on the Patriots deep receiving corps can do better. When he inevitably has a big week, everyone will want him. Buy him cheap now and sell him after the outburst for a true, solid fantasy WR3. Willie Parker, RB, Steelers: Strange but true (at least to me): he's almost a year older than Clinton Portis, yet Portis was thought of as washed up a month ago. (More on that later.) Parker is on pace for 400 carries and Mike Tomlin says, "We're riding Willie until the wheels fall off." (Actual quote.) You want to kiss the coach on the lips when he says that about your No. 1 fantasy back. Parker also has the most red-zone carries in the NFL. The planets are aligned for another 15-to-20 TD year. Thomas Jones, RB, Jets: No touches last week for Leon Washington results in this upgrade for Jones, who has done little against two top defenses. The Dolphins, this week's opponent, have yielded 170-plus rushing yards per game in the early going. DeShawn Wynn, RB, Packers: Why Wynn? Why not? He was highly recruited before opting to attend Florida, where he disappointed. Assume the talent is there. Brandon Jackson has done nothing to impress and never had more than 91 carries in college. Vernand Morency returns this week, but he's a journeyman. The Packers will run a lot more than in 2006 given their solid defense; Wynn's downside right now is goal-line back. Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: Sometimes it pays to catch a falling knife. This isn't really the stock market. Our guesses at a player's value are far more circumstantial. I didn't like him in the summer, when he was drafted late first, early second everywhere. By September, I was able to grab him 49th overall in one league. Lesson: every player has a price. Joey Galloway, WR, Bucs: He had a great game last week, but only had five passes thrown his way. It's Garcia vs. Gruden for more passes. If you like Garcia over Chucky, you can justify paying current market price for Galloway. But Gruden will be out for blood the first time Garcia checks off and throws a pick. Nick Folk, K, Cowboys: He's kicking fine and the Cowboys right now are the best, most balanced offense in football. Get a cheap but important piece of this action. Jacoby Jones, WR, Texans: Coach Gary Kubiak said Andre Johnson could be out a week or four weeks. Then he added that Johnson might even play this week. I'm tired of injury double-speak. I'm coming around on Matt Schaub. Jones should get most of Johnson's looks for as long as he's out. Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns: Derek Anderson will have to keep throwing TDs in bunches to stave off a switch to rookie Brady Quinn. When Quinn comes in, the wheels are likely to come off the Browns passing game. (Apologies to Mike Tomlin.) No Change Chad Johnson, WR, Bengals: T.J. Houshmandzadeh is still getting more targets everywhere and, especially, in the red zone. Johnson needs to be discounted for that versus someone like Terrell Owens. DeShaun Foster, RB, Panthers: He's a third fantasy back now. Coaches hate fumbles and his arguably turned the tide against Carolina on Sunday. But he's surprisingly run better than the more respected DeAngelo Williams, who gets the bulk of the work in the fourth quarter and on passing downs. Downgrade Ladell Betts, RB, Redskins: The path to playing time is hard when you're a backup. Betts has lost all goal-line looks with FB Mike Sellers filling the short-yardage role when Clinton Portis doesn't. Betts is unplayable as long as Portis remains healthy. Julius Jones, RB, Cowboys: Wade Phillips says he's still the starter, noting that Marion Barber gets the glory with all the short TDs. Jones owners were hoping for some crumbs there. Barber continues running much better despite Jones' better combine numbers. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: He's worth the preseason price only if he's extremely explosive or if the Jaguars have a very productive offense. The first remains unlikely, the latter impossible. Drew Brees, QB, Saints: Last year, on passes over 20 yards from scrimmage, Brees was 27-for-52 for 1,152 yards and 14 TDs. This year, he's thrown only three passes over 20 yards from scrimmage, missing on all of them. You can't live on the long-ball in the NFL. Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles: Give him two more weeks against the terrible Lions and Giants secondaries before you bail. His accuracy has always stunk. But the Eagles have thrown it more than anyone in NFL history under Andy Reid and will continue heaving it, as Brian Westbrook (knee) is incapable of carrying a heavy rushing load.
September 18
By Michael Salfino
September 17
By David Ferris The Saints passing game looked absolutely dreadful in the summer of 2006, but no one remembered because when the bell rang, Drew Brees and company were brilliant. In 2007, New Orleans receivers have struggled to get any separation on intermediate and deep routes, Brees has been uncharacteristically inaccurate with some of his throws, and the running game hasn't provided any explosive plays, either. Devery Henderson looks miscast as a starter - he had three drops Sunday - and David Patten doesn't have enough left to be an impact No. 3. Chris Chambers has fantasy relevance again (15 catches, 201 yards), something you can directly attribute to Trent Green. Miami's quarterback play was dreadful for most of 2005 and 2006, but Green is a significant step up (even if he did throw four picks against the Cowboys). Ravens TE Todd Heap is a heck of a player under any circumstances, but he gets an immediate upgrade if Kyle Boller takes over the starting post long-term. Heap had seven catches for 76 yards and a touchdown Sunday, and the pair have worked well together in the past, especially around the goal line. I'm not sure if Derek Anderson will ever be anything more than a journeyman quarterback in the NFL, but his explosion Sunday accomplishes one clear thing -- it pushes back the ETA on rookie QB Brady Quinn. Lamont Jordan's debut raised some eyebrows, and he neatly validated it with a snappy 159 yards Sunday, knifing his way through the heart of a good Denver defense. Jordan got the job done without much help from the rest of the offense; the Oakland passing game was basically nothing other than one lucky touchdown pass to Jerry Porter off a blown coverage. It was strange to see Thomas Jones get 26 touches at Baltimore (for a modest 87 yards), while Leon Washington didn't have a carry or a catch. It's not like Jones was attacking the record book with an eraser. Rex Grossman plays like he's point shaving -- and wins -- while Carson Palmer throws for 402 yards and six touchdowns -- and loses. Sometimes there's simply no justice ... Olindo Mare was missing kicks all over the place at the end of training camp, and he's missed kicks in both of the Saints' losses this month. A long leg is a tremendous weapon on kickoffs, but you have no idea where the ball is going when Mare lines up a placement kick ... Given that the Giants play for "disciplinarian" Tom Coughlin, they sure take a lot of undisciplined penalties ... Joey Galloway is the Dwight Evans of the NFL, a player who peaked in his 30s after an uneven start to his career. Had Galloway not lost two years to a holdout and a major injury, we'd be talking about a Hall of Fame candidate here ... The 49ers defense was arguably the worst in the league last year, but they've quickly retooled and turned it around. Rookie LB Patrick Willis is a star right out of the box, and CB Nate Clements was a smart signing, albeit the Rams did make some big plays in the passing game Sunday ... Tony Gonzalez has netted just 71 yards on his nine receptions, which is a commentary on his supporting cast more than his skill set ... Isaac Bruce has always been lauded for his speed and ability to get deep, but he might be the most underrated route runner of his generation. He put on a clinic Sunday ... There are a lot of things wrong in Atlanta, but don't blame the defense. The front seven hung in against Jacksonville's power game Sunday, and the defense has allowed just two touchdowns through two weeks. One challenge for the Falcons coaching staff: finding more ways to get Jerious Norwood involved.
September 15
By David Ferris Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). Last Updated: 9/15/07 * = check status
By David Ferris Quarterbacks As we go to press Saturday morning, Eli Manning (shoulder) has yet to be ruled out for Sunday's game with Green Bay. Nonetheless Jared Lorenzen took most of the snaps in practice, and seems more likely to be the starter, which is a shame given how well Manning looked all summer and in the opener at Dallas. Jets QB Chad Pennington (ankle) was very limited during the week and all context clues point to QB Kellen Clemens making his first career start at Baltimore. Raiders QB Josh McCown (toe/finger) is listed as doubtful, which puts QB Daunte Culpepper on the field at Denver. The Raiders also signed QB JaMarcus Russell a few days ago, though he's weeks (if not months) away from being a factor. Ravens QB Steve McNair (groin) did a little bit of throwing Friday and hasn't been ruled out for Sunday yet, though Kyle Boller took all the first team reps and probably will get the start against the Jets. Running Backs Although the Seahawks concede that RB Shaun Alexander has a sprained wrist, he didn't miss any practice time this week and isn't on the injury report. Alexander will be needed for a full load, with RB Maurice Morris (hip, doubtful) unlikely to go. Buccaneers RB Carnell Williams (ribs) was limited in Friday's workout and will be a game-time decision for Sunday's game with New Orleans. Even if Williams can play, look for the Bucs to give plenty of work to Michael Pittman. Giants RB Brandon Jacobs is expected to miss 3-5 weeks with his sprained MCL, which sets up Derrick Ward to start this week against Green Bay. Dolphins RB Jesse Chatman (knee) had a full workout Friday and should be able to handle his normal No. 2 role on Sunday. Jets RB Thomas Jones (calf) was limited in practice all week and is listed as questionable, and although I expect him to go at Baltimore, it's a terrible matchup for him. Vikings RB Chester Taylor (hip) missed practice time all week and will probably be a game-time decision at Detroit. Either way, look for Minnesota to give a healthy share of work to RB Adrian Peterson. Lions RB Kevin Jones (foot) is very unlikely to play this week, and RB T.J. Duckett (ankle) has already been ruled out. Packers RB Vernand Morency (knee) didn't work Friday and is unlikely to dress for Sunday's game in New York, which means Brandon Jackson will be Green Bay's starter again. Wide Receivers Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (knee, probable) had a full practice Friday and should be ready for Sunday's game at Cleveland. Packers WR Greg Jennings (hamstring) didn't practice Friday and will probably sit Sunday at New York. That puts rookie WR James Jones in the starting lineup again. As for WR Donald Driver (foot), no worries – he's not on the injury report this week. Ravens WR Mark Clayton (toe) was limited during the practice week and is listed as questionable. You need a safer option for now in your starting lineup; Clayton was hardly used in the opener. Teammate Demetrius Williams (chest) is also listed as questionable. Rams WR Drew Bennett (thigh) had a decent workout Friday and is expected to play against the 49ers Sunday. Cardinals WR Bryant Johnson (hamstring) missed some work Friday and is considered questionable. Given how Matt Leinart and the Arizona passing game struggled Monday, it's too soon to take a chance on this offense's No. 3 target. Seahawks WR D.J. Hackett has a high ankle sprain and is expected to miss at least a month. Nate Burleson will start while Hackett is out, and Bobby Engram will also pick up extra snaps. Chiefs WR Eddie Kennison (hamstring) won't play at Chicago, and it's possible he could be out several weeks. WR Dwayne Bowe is expected to start in Kennison's place against the Bears. Cowboys WR Terry Glenn had his knee scoped Thursday and is hoping to return in late October or early November. Other Positions Chargers TE Antonio Gates (back) is listed as probable, so barring a late setback, he's fine for New England. Eagles TE L.J. Smith (groin) isn't 100 percent yet, though the team lists him as probable. Bears TE Greg Olsen (knee) did some work during the week but he's still very iffy for Sunday's game against Kansas City. It's too soon to use him for fantasy purposes. Bengals PK Shayne Graham (hip) practiced the last two days and is expected to go at Cleveland. He's listed as probable. Jaguars PK Josh Scobee (quad) is expected to miss at least a month. Veteran PK John Carney steps in to replace him. Three significant offensive line injuries to be aware of: Rams OT Orlando Pace (shoulder) is out for the year; Redskins OT Jon Jansen (knee) is out for the year; Ravens OT Jonathan Ogden (toe) is out indefinitely.
September 13
By Michael Salfino Whether your fantasy fortunes were good or bad, you must remind yourself that it was just one week (or about 6 percent of the NFL regular season). Upgrade Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: I’ve gone from “not too worried” to appropriately worried that he’ll beat me. But I’d be a seller if I owned him. Not for another WR; there’s no point to that. But you might be able to fetch a preseason consensus top 10 or 12 RB for him now and I’d move on that. You never know what’s really behind the curtain with Moss. Plus, the Patriots play to win, not feed individual performance. So, don’t expect a consistent number of targets each week like with do with other receivers viewed as WR1s. Ronald Curry, WR, Raiders: We’ll upgrade him for now to a WR3 in 12-team leagues. But I still don’t like relying on him long term because there’s a good chance that the Raiders are going to have rookie JaMarcus Russell start games Dec. 1 or earlier, and when that happens, you are not going to want to be invested in the Raiders passing game because it will almost certainly be very, very ugly. Javon Walker, WR, Broncos: I liked what I saw from Broncos second-year QB Jay Cutler. The Broncos generated almost 500 yards against a decent Bills defense in Buffalo. Over 300 of those yards came via the passing game. Walker didn’t find the end zone, but was very involved and very often Cutler’s first read, which is what you’re looking for in a solid, No. 1 fantasy receiver. Walker is quite clearly that. The only caution here is that the Broncos defense is so good now, they might not need to throw much. Travis Henry, RB, Broncos: Looked like every other Broncos running back – very, very good. He got 33 cheap yards on an option play that the Broncos would be foolish to try again. But Henry was productive even without the trickery. Henry owners must get Selvin Young and hope Shanahan’s depth chart doesn’t change because Henry has had chronic injury problems and is quite old (29 next month) for a running back. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: He’s Superman at running back. Big, tough, fast, powerful, elusive…. The Fantasy Gods stepped in and smote Chester Taylor in the first quarter of Week 1, righting the injustice of Peterson not being the opening-day starter. The Vikings clearly want second-year man Tarvaris Jackson to be a caretaker QB. So there are not going to be enough points generated by them for Peterson to have a monster season. No Change Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: I’ve been high on him all summer. You can’t quarrel with the results (4 TD passes). But I’m disappointed that the Steelers ran two-thirds of the time on first down in the first half on Sunday. Forget the second half stats, because the game turned into a massacre. Roethlisberger has always carved up base defenses on first down and Sunday was no different: 2-for-4 for 55 yards and a TD in the first half. Though he’s unchanged in my eyes (I had him as a preseason Top 10 fantasy QB), he’s probably a big upgrade for you. Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals: Anyone watching the game heard the announcers gushing about how hard James was running. We hear that from announcers when a back they like (usually an older back with his best days behind him) is getting creamed by the defense. James can no longer make people miss and has lost any vestige of explosive playmaking ability. He’s incapable of generating big stats and is an injury waiting to happen. Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs: I got the idea for a Fantasy Suicide Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: He’s undoubtedly talented. But health Downgrade Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots: He got less than half the snaps at running back on Sunday and garbage time had little to do with this. Also, he’s looking unlikely to be the goal-line back. Heath Evans punched it in from one-yard out in what was arguably garbage time, but Sammy Morris got the short-yardage carry earlier and Maroney got no short-yardage looks. I thought he could easily get 15-to-17 TDs in August. Now, I’m thinking 7-to-10. Matt Leinart, QB, Cardinals: New coach Ken Whisenhunt called run about two-thirds of the time on first down. He initially said he was going to emphasize a power running game irrespective of his personnel before later backing off that claim. It seems his first take was the accurate reflection of his coaching personality. This is bad news for those of us invested in the Cardinals passing game. Vernon Davis, TE, Niners: I’ve said all summer that Alex Smith is a
By David Ferris Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.
September 12
Steve McNair is not the downfield thrower he used to be. We expect TV announcers to live in a player's past. But Ravens coach Brian Billick has no excuse. During Monday night's telecast, ESPN noted McNair had a NFL-best 115.1 rating on passes over 21 yards from scrimmage in 2006 (it was really 89.4, far below Drew Brees' NFL best mark on deep passes). The announcers admonished Brian Billick for not giving McNair enough chances to heave. Even if ESPN wasn't so far off on their own numbers (mine came from their Web site), they've ignored the law of large numbers. Small numbers are viewed with great skepticism in statistics. So, in sports, when you're told someone is great at doing something that he doesn't get a chance to do nearly enough, question whether he's really all that good at it in the first place. In other words, what McNair did on 38 random passes in 2006 means very little. And when we expand the sample of passes over 21 yards from scrimmage to include those he threw in 2005, his attempts go up to 81 and his cumulative QB rating drops from 89.4 to 57.4, far below the NFL average of 69.4 on these deep throws since '05. To get better numbers to gauge QB arm strength, I look at passes thrown 11-to-20 yard from scrimmage because that doubles the number of plays we're looking at (to about 20 percent of all attempts). Let's examine top TD throwers of 2006 and see if Functional Arm Strength (as I define it) played a significant part in their success. Also, let's see if there's some reasonable consistency from year to year. Last year, the most prolific scoring passers were Peyton Manning (120.3 QB rating on 11-to-20 yard passes in 2006, 85.2 in '05), Carson Palmer (88.3 last year, 130.9 in '05), Drew Brees (100.8, 116.2) and Marc Bulger (98.6, 84.3). Seems like a useful stat. And it gets better if you pro-rate and include Tony Romo (29 TD-pass pace last year as starter). Romo had a 108.9 rating on 11-to-20-yard passes in '05 and clocked in at 156.3 with three TD passes on tosses that distance Sunday night. Of course the confidence the announcers and Billick apparently had in McNair proved unfounded, as he badly overthrew an open receiver on a deeper throw in the final minutes, resulting in a pick and long return that set the stage for Cincy's winning TD. The Bengals forced six turnovers versus Baltimore. In 2005 they forced 43 before falling back to 29 last year. Only the Vikings and the Bears have been consistently in the mid-30s in takeaways the past two seasons. Even the vaunted Ravens defense forced just 23 turnovers in 2005. Takeaways appear to be quite random. Now some player recommendations. Buy Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: We told you last year about Brady's huge performance decline in 11-to-20 yard passes. Maybe it was his shoulder, or his garbage receivers. On Sunday, on passes over 11 yards from scrimmage: 8-for-9 for 183 yards and a TD. Times have changed. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills: I bet all summer that the Bills were full of it when they said Anthony Thomas (minus-1 yard) was in line for serious committee work. Lynch (21 touches) seems as much a feature back as anyone. Hold Lee Evans, WR, Bills: When your passing game is going up against the Broncos, points will be hard to come by. Sure, Evans just missed a long TD. But five total yards stings. Shake it off. Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants: Believe nothing you hear from the Giants about Eli Manning's shoulder injury until you see him on the field, which is rumored to be this week, next month or, gulp, next year. Marc Bulger, QB, Rams: I was all set to sound the alarm before realizing Bulger threw 10 TD passes in December last year without LT Orlando Pace (out for the season). Steven Jackson shrugged off Pace's absence last year, too. Sell Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: The Cardinals ran two-thirds of the time on first down Monday night, which means new coach Ken Whisenhunt is trying to import his 2005 Steelers offense. Fitzgerald isn't even on the field in one-WR sets near the goal line.
September 10
By David Ferris I guess Randy Moss doesn't need training camp much, as he spent Sunday afternoon toasting the Jets secondary and partying like it was 2003. Tom Brady's supporting cast (and fantasy stock) has never been higher; consider that Reche Caldwell was New England's No. 1 receiver last year, but he didn't even make the club this time around. Don't overlook Wes Welker's contribution to the offense; he did a nice job working underneath in the opener and in a nutshell could be this year's Mike Furrey. I'm not saying it's time to bail on Larry Johnson yet, but a few of his owners were drinking Hemlock Cocktails at the sports bar I dropped in on Sunday. You can't blame them, given how bad the rest of the Kansas City offense looked Sunday against an ordinary (if underrated) Houston defense. Say hello to eight men in the box every week, LJ, and that's without the benefit of the blocking sleds the Chiefs had in 2005-2006. And oh yeah, LaMont Jordan called, he wants his nickname back. Speaking of Jordan, his fantasy value gets a major spike from the new coaching staff; last year's overmatched offensive coordinator, Tom Walsh, all but eliminated Jordan in the passing game, but the resurgent Jordan was all over the field Sunday (15-70 rushing, 9-89 receiving). The problem has never been lack of talent with Titans RB Chris Brown, it's been other things; an upright style of running that makes him prone to injury, and a tendency to put the ball on the ground. By any account his 175-yard opener at Jacksonville was a stunner, though he'll probably stick in the time-share with LenDale White (18 carries, 66 yards) for now. White, for what it's worth, looked painfully slow to the hole on a key fourth-and-goal carry. Somewhere in the Pacific Northwest Jim Mora Jr. is kicking himself for not giving Matt Schaub a chance to play when both were with the Falcons. And perhaps the Texans are knocking themselves, too, for not kicking David Carr to the curb a year earlier. Schaub consistently made good decisions in the opening-day win over Kansas City, and his home run ball to Andre Johnson was a throw Carr consistently missed (or didn't even try) over the last few seasons. This team has a legitimate chance to win eight or more games for the first time ever, in part because of a cushy schedule. Give the Denver secondary credit for shutting down Lee Evans (two catches, five yards), albeit Evans was open for a long pass late and J.P. Losman just missed him. Volatility rules the wide receiver position more than any other; the difference between a strong week and a washout Sunday is just one overthrown pass. The Rams are concerned that Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Pace could miss significant time after injuring his shoulder in the opener. In theory an injury to a star lineman hurts the running game more than the passing game, but when Pace got hurt in the middle of the 2006 season, it crippled the intermediate and deep passing game (and Torry Holt) more than anything else, and oddly, Steven Jackson thrived even without Pace in the mix. That all said, losing Pace would be a terrible blow to the St. Louis offense, and something Jackson, Holt and Marc Bulger owners don't want to see. The Colts defense stunned everyone by stopping the Saints offense in the Thursday opener, but that doesn't mean this unit is a force to be reckoned with, at least not yet. Tony Dungy's scheme typically has a better chance to succeed against finesse teams (like the Saints), but a sterner test will come when Indy matches up with a physical club that wants to pound it between the tackles. In brief, that's a major part of why Jacksonville has given Indianapolis fits over the years. Even though Vernand Morency (knee) didn't play in Green Bay's opener with Philadelphia, he still gained ground in the backfield carousel as Brandon Jackson (15 carries, 40 yards) went nowhere. We'll see if Morency is able to practice this week. Reggie Brown was targeted six times from Donovan McNabb, though just one pass was completed. The bigger concern to Brown: No. 3 wideout Jason Avant (three catches, 54 yards, touchdown) worked his way into the rotation nicely, and Kevin Curtis had a respectable debut (53 yards, with McNabb missing him deep at least once). There are plenty of glowing things you can say about Minnesota's defense, but what impressed me most were the six sacks. This team didn't always pressure the QB with consistency last year, and for all of Joey Harrington's fleas as a quarterback, he's normally good at getting rid of the ball. I look at the Vikings schedule and I can't see why this unit can't sneak into the Top 10 (perhaps the Top 5) for fantasy defenses. Quick Hits : It didn't take long for the Bills to hitch up the wagon to No. 1 pick Marshawn Lynch (21 touches, 99 yards, TD), while Anthony Thomas hardly played . . . Journeyman Derrick Ward stepped in as the Giants featured back when Brandon Jacobs (knee) went down Sunday night. Ward, a former seventh-round pick of the Jets, had an undistinguished 35 carries (for 123 yards) with the Giants back in 2005 . . . Give an upgrade to Jon Kitna, who sliced up a good Oakland defense for most of the day and really made just one bad decision (the end-zone interception in the first quarter). Kitna can't be blamed for the second pick, a pass that slid through Roy Williams' hands . . . You watch Plaxico Burress on a good day and you wonder why he's not in the Pro Bowl every year . . . Jason Witten is a fine player, but not as good as the Giants are making him look Sunday night. Get your tight ends ready to roll when they go up against Big Blue . . . Packers PK Mason Crosby drilled all three of his field-goal tries, one of them a 53-yarder that would have been good from 65. It looks like the club knew was it was doing when it cut Dave Rayner . . . The key for Jamal Lewis will be staying in one piece over a murderous opening six weeks. The Cleveland schedule against the run gets much easier after the bye, other than the trips to Pittsburgh and Baltimore . . . All Adrian Peterson needs to be an immediate star is some luck with injuries. It matters not to me if Chester Taylor is on the field; the Vikings realize that Peterson is the offense's meal ticket, even as they'll take the high road publicly . . . Laurence Maroney passed the eyeball test no problem, but with no receptions and others getting the goal-line work, his fantasy owners have reason to be concerned.
September 8
By David Ferris Quarterbacks Lions QB Jon Kitna (back) has been practicing all week, isn't on the injury report, and should be fine at Oakland, though he'll get a stern test from the underrated Raiders defense. Patriots QB Tom Brady (shoulder) worked the last two days and is a cinch to start at New York Sunday. The Pats like to have Brady on the injury report whenever possible, just for grins, though he was held back in Wednesday's practice. Jets QB Chad Pennington (pelvis) had three straight days of full practice, cementing his place under center on Sunday. He's listed as probable.
Running Backs Redskins RB Clinton Portis (knee) had a good week of practice and although he's listed as probable, he should be ready for a decent share of the work against Miami. Jets RB Thomas Jones (calf) continues to be listed as questionable, though he said he felt okay at Friday's practice. It's very likely we won't know his definite status until Sunday, and you get the idea Leon Washington is probably going to see a fair amount of touches against New England, either way. The Lions are encouraged by the work RB Kevin Jones (foot) did this week, but there's no guarantee he'll play Sunday, and even if he were to see action, it would be in a complimentary role. His official status is doubtful. Packers RB Brandon Jackson (concussion) had a full day of practice Friday and should be on the field Sunday against the Eagles. He'll be needed with Vernand Morency (knee) very questionable. 49ers RB Frank Gore (hand), Patriots RB Laurence Maroney (shoulder), and Broncos RB Travis Henry (knee) are all off the injury report this week, so start 'em if you got 'em.
Wide Receivers Cowboys WR Terry Glenn is out indefinitely with a knee injury and definitely won't play Sunday against the Giants. Patrick Crayton will spell him in the starting lineup. Packers WR Donald Driver (foot) worked Friday and while he's listed as probable on the injury report, he should be able to go Sunday without problem. Things don't look as good for WR Greg Jennings, who has a balky hamstring, didn't practice Friday, and is listed as questionable. If Jennings can't go on Sunday, rookie WR James Jones, off a very impressive preseason, will get the start. Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (knee) is listed as probable and did some work Friday after missing the previous two days. Barring a setback, he should be fine for the Monday opener with Baltimore. Patriots WR Randy Moss (hamstring) was taken off the injury report Friday, so he'll go against the Jets. He's still a risky fantasy play, however, given how much time in camp he missed. Bears WR Muhsin Muhammad has a minor ankle injury and was added to the injury report Friday. Nonetheless, he's probable and should be able to go at San Diego. Ravens WR Mark Clayton (ankle) missed some time Friday, but he's still considered probable for the opener Monday at Cincinnati.
Giants WR Plaxico Burress (back) isn't on the injury report, and should be fine at Dallas. Vikings WR Bobby Wade (ankle) had two full days of practice Thursday and Friday and should be fine against Atlanta Sunday.
Other Positions Bears TE Greg Olsen (knee) is listed as doubtful, which extends the fantasy shelf life of Desmond Clark. Eagles TE L.J. Smith (groin) is listed as probable, though he's still a risky start given how limited he was during the summer. Unless you're pressed at this position, I'd wait a week or two on Smith. Bengals PK Shayne Graham (hip) has been practicing and should be fine for Monday's game with Baltimore. The club hasn't signed another kicker as of yet, an encouraging sign.
By David Ferris Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).
September 6
Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards). * = check status Quarterback
Read the rest, write another... September 5
By Michael Salfino Note that some of you are seeing this piece a day early this week because of the Thursday Night season kickoff (Saints at Colts). Now let's look at some players in the news as the sun is rising on NFL 2007. Upgrade Hines Ward, WR, Steelers: I've seen drafts and even been in some where rising Steeler WR Santonio Holmes is being taken ahead of Ward. Okay, Ward had surgery on a broken nose. Not a big deal. (Easy for me to say.) Ward is 32, but not old for a receiver and still clearly the main man in Pittsburgh. I do think Roethlisberger has a big-bounce back, 22-to-25 TD season. But Ward is almost guaranteed to outperform Holmes this year. Holmes is only a good value relative to Ward being drafted at least two rounds earlier. He's in no way a better draft bet than Ward. Neil Rackers, K, Cardinals: It's home-run derby when Rackers kicks off. The returners are like left fielders just standing still and watching the ball sail over their heads. Of course, Rackers can boom long-distance field goals, too. He's at a discount because of a sub-par 2006; but everything is lined up for him to again be the game's most dominant kicker: talent, kicking environment, offense, schedule…. And he has a late bye, a huge plus because you should NEVER draft two kickers. David Patten, WR, Saints: I like him as a pocket pick. It looks like he'll be a No. 3 receiver at worst and maybe a No. 2 if Devery Henderson can't stay healthy. Henderson, as my colleague Scott Pianowski points out, might be a one-trick pony with the long ball. Patten can be a veteran, stabilizing influence for the Saints very young receiving corps. Forget about rookie first-rounder Robert Meachem, who had minor knee surgery earlier this summer and never moved up the depth chart. If a rookie receiver doesn't come out of camp with a very defined role, his season is almost certain to be a total washout. No Change Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs: Forget about reports he'll share more carries in Week 1 after the holdout. That's a short-term deal. Damon Huard being elevated to starter is good news only when the alternative is Brodie Croyle, a former third-round pick clearly overwhelmed by even vanilla preseason defenses. QB could definitely be a problem with Huard if his 2006 was a fluke. The offensive line is a major question mark for the first time in years. I'm not worried about the magical 400-carry threshold. That's just an arbitrary number. And if it's such a big deal, why not predict doom and gloom for a guy like LaDainian Tomlinson who gets almost as many touches (carries plus catches)? Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: Man, is he slip-sliding down the draft board. No one is happy about taking him even though everyone respects his talent and his production when healthy in 2006 (seven TDs in eight games). But health is the rub with Portis, still young and fast. Another problem for Portis owners is Ladell Betts, who proved last year that he deserves more than backup status. But then so did this next guy ... Michael Turner, RB, Chargers: His high-ankle sprain was rumored to keep him out until October. Now, he may go in Week 1. This bears watching. A healthy Turner plus an injured LaDainian Tomlinson equals a fantasy championship for all Turner owners. It's that simple. Of course, Turner is unrestricted next year in free agency and will absolutely be starting somewhere interesting in 2008 no matter what happens to LT in 2007. Downgrade Ronald Curry, WR, Raiders: A fast riser in some educated circles. Daunte Culpepper is the starter in Oakland and that's good news considering the alternatives and how Culpepper looked this summer. The Raiders seem to have a more professional coaching staff this year, but it's very inexperienced. There's enough uncertainty to make me uncomfortable thinking of Curry as anything more than a No. 4 receiver, which means I lose him in almost every draft. I can live with that. Shayne Graham, K, Bengals: He's iffy this week with a sore hip but should go. You can't be looking at Week 1 injury reports for your kicker. You have enough real players to worry about. Let someone else deal with the aggravation even though Graham could easily be a top five kicker. But then, so can about 15 or 20 other guys. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets: All eyes are on Chad Pennington to see if the terrible preseason was a fluke. We hoped his arm strength would return to pre-injury level (still sub-par), but were disappointed. Meanwhile, rising second-year QB Kellen Clemens must have looked to head coach Eric Mangini just like Tom Brady 2001. Will Mangini wait to see if injury forces his hand like it did for his mentor Bill Belichick that year or eye a switch on merit? Clemens can make all the throws. But does he have enough of the intangibles that Pennington so clearly possesses? The Jets pass protection is also an area of concern. Cotchery can smoothly operate in the intermediate area of the field, but needs the right QB. Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: There were reports that he was going to be cut, but that proved to just be a wild, unfounded rumor. Moss, though, didn't get on the field the entire preseason. This was not how the marriage to Tom Brady was supposed to begin. There's no honeymoon period with the bullets now flying for real. I'm concerned that Moss's leg injuries are chronic and that his career as a reliable fantasy weapon are over. I'll pass and am no longer too worried about someone beating me with him. But if he could ever stay off the injury report three weeks running, I'd be a buyer. Of course then, it's too late.
By Michael Salfino Last year in Week 7, the Colts went into Denver to face a Bronco defense that gave up two TDs the first six weeks of the season. My advice was to expect Manning to peform well because, while we know he’s great, we could not yet know whether the Denver defense was truly great or whether their dominance to date was a small-sample- size fluke. As you may remember, Manning sliced up the Denver defense that last week in October more coldly and cruelly than Michael Myers in all the Halloween sequels, prequels and remakes combined. He finished 32-for-39 for 345 yards and three TD passes in the Colts' 34-31 win. This week, the Cincinnati Bengals and Carson Palmer play at home versus the Ravens. In the most recent Pro Football Prospectus, writer Bill Barnwell says that the Bengals will very likely struggle offensively because the Ravens defense was so good last year. He more specifically advises that fantasy league players bench the highly coveted Palmer and presumably the similarly valued Chad Johnson (WR), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR) and Rudi Johnson (RB). He reasons that when a players faces the defenses most highly ranked at the end of the year, their performance declines appreciably. According to Barnwell, second-tier QBs, RBs and WRs generally perform better against low-ranked defenses than their first-tier brethren do against top-ranked defenses. There’s nothing earth-shattering about that observation, assuming we know who the great defenses are going to be at the end of the year. But if we didn’t last year in Week 7, how can we this year in Week 1? The statistics used by Barnwell are proprietary and too complicated to describe here. Let’s approximate them by looking at the defenses that allowed the least yards per pass (YPA, including sack yards) and yards per rush (YPR) over an entire season. How did they fair the next year? Chicago and Baltimore are the only top 10 pass defenses from 2005 that repeated the feat in 2006. That may legitimize Baltimore’s defense for 2007. But the Eagles, the Bills, the Jaguars and the Raiders finished with a better YPA allowed last year than the Ravens. Do you bench Palmer and his receivers against them, too? Also, note where some other top 10 pass defenses from 2005 finished in 2006: last (Redskins, 3rd in ’05), 31st (Falcons from 8th), 16th (Steelers from 4th) and 14th (Broncos from 6th). Performance seems more consistent in defending the run. Here, 6 of the top 10 of 2005 (YPR) finished top 10 again in 2006. But the Chargers fell to 20th, the Eagles to 24th and the Seahawks to 28th. Finally, remember the Ravens finished 2005 second in pass defense (YPA allowed) and Palmer that year tossed five TD passes versus them and, in 2004 (when the Ravens again finished top 10), he threw for 382 yards and three more TDs versus them at home. Now let’s get beyond matchups and look more closely at some of the summer’s more interesting players. Buy Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: Does it get darkest before dawn or, as my grandfather said, before it gets utterly, hopelessly black? I can’t buy Jesse Chatman (inactive since 2005) as a threat to Brown’s playing time. The talent that made him the No. 2 overall pick sits in the discount bin. Vince Young, QB, Titans: Getting no respect in nationwide fantasy drafts. But he’ll run for eight TDs and throw 16-to-20 more if he stays healthy. He didn’t have the supporting cast at Texas, either. Hold Randy McMichael, TE, Rams: He didn’t catch a pass this preseason. But I’ve never seen more vanilla August offenses or cameos by starters than this preseason. I put the over/under still at 60 catches. Sell Devery Henderson, WR, Saints: Everyone’s favorite WR sleeper is fighting with journeyman David Patten for the No. 2 job next to Marques Colston. D.J. Hackett, WR, Seahawks: Fantasy leaguers love him but Mike Holmgren doesn’t seem so sure, as Nate Burleson is in the starting mix next to Deion Branch. Kevin Jones, RB, Lions: His Lis Franc foot injury typically requires a full-year recovery. He’ll try to play three months short of that. He’s on the active roster, but don’t expect much of anything until mid-October.
By David Ferris If you read every single news item from the NFL during the preseason, you'd never have time to eat, sleep, and shower. Here's a condensed version for you, all the info fantasy owners need to know on the cusp of the regular season. The Jaguars finally cut the cord on QB Byron Leftwich, releasing him and anointing David Garrard the starter. Neither of these guys has shown much as a passer, but Garrard offers a little more fantasy value based given his running ability. In leagues that require two starters at the position, Garrard is worth considering as your second or third option on the depth chart. As for the Jacksonville wideouts, select them at your own risk - they weren't good plays with Leftwich, and things probably won't get any better with Garrard. Raiders head coach Lane Kiffin says he's going to keep the identity of his starting QB a secret, but all the context clues point to Daunte Culpepper getting the job to open the season. This doesn't really make Culpepper a hot fantasy prospect, but it does upgrade the skill players in Oakland's offense - otherwise, this unit would be struggling along with Josh McCown. WR Ronald Curry should be able to build on his excellent finish to 2006, and RB LaMont Jordan figures to get off to a good start in the first month as the Raiders play a very favorable schedule (including Detroit and Cleveland the first two weeks). It's still a messy backfield-by-committee in Carolina, where DeShaun Foster stays at the top of the depth chart ahead of DeAngelo Williams. No one seems to dispute that Williams is the more talented player here (and a much better receiver), but Foster has some points in his favor: he's a better fit for the zone-blocking scheme, and by default a better blocker (Williams really struggles in blitz pickup). Add it all up and there's not much to get excited about; Williams has been too costly in drafts this month to be any sort of value, and while Foster doesn't cost a lot in most leagues, he might not play enough to be worth starting on a consistent basis. It's also possible that someone else (perhaps journeyman Nick Goings) could get the goal-line work for the Panthers. Mike Shanahan is known for pulling surprises in his backfield, and this year that surprise is named Selvin Young, an undrafted rookie who out of nowhere ascended to the No. 2 spot on the depth chart. Young still needs help to have any real fantasy value - Shanahan is committed to Travis Henry as the main guy here - but given the success of Denver's running game over the years, Young should be drafted in most medium and deep leagues. While Houston's Jacoby Jones was probably the most exciting rookie receiver in August (scoring four touchdowns, two on punt returns), Green Bay's James Jones is another first-year player you should know. He'll open the year as the Packers No. 3 receiver, and some draft observers felt he had the best hands of anyone in April's pool (and yes, that includes Calvin Johnson). Torry Holt's recovery from knee surgery has gone very slowly, and while the Rams don't expect him to miss any games, the club is resigned to the fact that this may an issue all season. As a result, Holt really can't be viewed as a first-tier receiving option in fantasy leagues, and he's someone I've avoided during the draft season. This isn't to suggest that Holt won't be productive, but there's far more risk here than normal. Willis McGahee didn't get much blocking in his Buffalo days, and things don't look much different in Baltimore. OT Jon Ogden is at the end of his career and no longer a dominant path-clearer, and McGahee has looked sluggish for most of August. Temper expectations here. Everyone forget this now, but Drew Brees played very poorly last summer as he slowly adjusted to Sean Payton's offense. This summer it's been exactly the opposite, as Brees has been letter-perfect (107.5 rating, 80 percent completions) and the Saints clearly have the most dynamic offense in the NFC. Reggie Bush also looks primed for a big year; he struggled adjusting to the pro game at the start of 2006, but he looked like a totally different runner in the second half. Bears TE Desmond Clark looked undraftable a few weeks back, but he gets a respite now that rookie TE Greg Olsen is hurt. Say what you want about Chicago QB Rex Grossman, but he's always had a nice rapport with his tight ends, especially Clark. Don't be surprised if Rudi Johnson gets a modest spike in his reception total. He's worked hard on that area over the last few months, and the Bengals say they can notice the improvement. This isn't going to turn Johnson into Reggie Bush overnight, but an extra 10-15 receptions could come out of this. Charlie Frye will open the year as Cleveland's starting QB, then hand off to someone else - probably Brady Quinn - around Halloween. WR Braylon Edwards probably gets a kick forward with this news; he'd had decent rapport with Frye in the past, and ultimately Quinn will be an upgrade at the position.
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