Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

Football differs from other team sports most significantly in the impact the team environment has on individual performance.

A major part of this environment, of course, is fellow players. But less obvious is the impact that the play-calling tendencies of coaches have on player performance. So let's focus first on coaching changes in our attempt to predict which players will perform significantly better or worse than in 2006.

We don't expect fundamental philosophical changes on offense when a team promotes a coordinator from the prior staff, or when the head coach changes but the coordinator stays in place.

So expect similarly styled attacks in San Francisco and Dallas (new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett reports to assistant head coach Tony Sparano, who called plays in Dallas last year).

San Diego's offense is unlikely to change substantively despite losing its head coach and offensive coordinator. Norv Turner takes the reigns of the team and especially the offense. He's guaranteed to employ a similar power-running, downfield passing attack.

But significant changes are likely afoot in Pittsburgh, Carolina, Arizona, Miami, Oakland and Atlanta. Let's examine why.

New Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has a defensive background and hands the offensive reigns to holdover WR coach Bruce Arians, who once served as Peyton Manning's QB coach. Expect the Steelers to continue their transition in 2007 to becoming a decidedly more pass-heavy team (17th in percentage of pass plays and more aggressive in the first-half of games than overall).

The expectation in Carolina is that new coordinator Jeff Davidson, whose background is on the offensive line, will reemphasize the running game. Carolina was ninth in overall percentage of pass plays last year (56 percent) and called passes about as frequently in the first half of games. But Davidson is a protégé of Charlie Weis. So assume he'll implement a Weis-styled offense, which generally finished near the top of the league in passing TDs -- a good indicator of aggressiveness.

Everyone is high on the Cardinals' personnel in the passing game. But new head coach Ken Whisenhunt helmed a Steelers offense that, in 2005, was most extreme in running overall and on first down. He stated his top priority in Arizona is the implementation of a power running game.

New Dolphins coach and former Chargers offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will be heavily involved with the offense. His was not fantasy-friendly for the passing game last year, but had been in years past. He will likely look to build the entire attack around a feature running back.

Former USC offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin is ultimately in charge of Oakland's offense. But he probably had more offensive talent on his 2005 USC team than he'll have this year in Oakland, where he'll nonetheless try to implement the Trojan's downfield passing offense.

Now let's make some related player recommendations.

Buy

Jerious Norwood, RB, Falcons: New head coach Bobby Petrino can't possibly install a big-strike passing game with QB Joey Harrington. Warrick Dunn (back surgery) is about done (at 32). That leaves Norwood (6.4 per carry in '06) as the building block by default.

Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers: Down last year, but usually near the top of the all-important yards-per-attempt rankings. Remember, he tossed 53 TD passes in '04 and '05. Backup David Carr has zero pocket awareness and is no threat.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: He's got the skills, as a former No. 2 overall pick. Now, Cameron wants him to be Tomlinson 2.0. Cameron tries to transform an offense that threw second most frequently overall and about as frequently in the first half of games.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers: Hines Ward (31) doesn't have a step to lose. Holmes is ascending and was quite productive down the stretch (17 catches, 388 yards in December). QB Ben Roethlisberger struggles in '06 were likely related to his multiple, massive concussions.

Hold

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: Looks Troy Aikman-like in his ability to win raves without big-time scoring or yardage numbers. LaDainian Tomlinson is in the Emmitt Smith role as the TD maker. And now former Cowboys coordinator Norv Turner calls the plays.

Sell

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals: He needs the Cardinals to throw a lot to be effective because Larry Fitzgerald looks like the alpha male in the Arizona passing game. Perhaps Edgerrin James will spit the bit again and thwart Whisenhunt's running plans.

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