Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Running backs rule in fantasy football. Let's look at the weakest starters and see if we can find any value in them or in their backups. Again, average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com.

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Cadillac Williams, Bucs (ADP: 42): Whenever a 25-year-old, healthy back who is guaranteed to start slides from the first round the year before to the fourth round presently, he's a solid value. Michael Pittman is around to steal some catches and probably the goal-line carries. But he's not as obvious a choice there as Mike Alstott was (at least to the unimaginative Jon Gruden). Maybe Jeff Garcia plays close to his 2006 level and the new offensive line gels.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills (ADP: 45): He's got the stench of a committee guy, but I still like the situation here. Anthony Thomas is 30 and if the Bills liked him as much as they're letting on, why would they draft Lynch? I'll bet Lynch gets 20 to 25 carries, not the 15 to 20 being projected. But be prepared for an anxious first month. Lynch is also bigger than Thomas, so I can't see him losing goal-line carries.

Julius Jones, Cowboys (ADP: 60): He's the starter, but almost every league drafts Marion Barber (ADP: 34) first. Jones has even gotten goal-line action this summer. Barber also was playing fullback last week and that makes me more bullish on Jones, who is, by far, the Cowboys most explosive runner.

DeShaun Foster, Panthers (ADP: 92): The offensive line has struggled this summer. Everyone but John Fox wants to turn the page on Foster and see what DeAngelo Williams can do. Williams was a great, multidimensional runner in college and is being aggressively drafted despite his backup status. If I had to have one of them, I'd wait the three or four rounds and tab Foster. We tend to forget the obvious fact that the path to playing time is easiest for the opening-day starter.

Jamal Lewis, Browns (ADP: 47): He is being treated like a leper by fantasy owners. But he's just turned 28 and says he's never felt better off the offseason ankle surgery. There's no serious competition for carries. The offensive line has to get better. Lewis can be a rare value play at running back. Just make sure he's your third option.

Vernand Morency, Packers (ADP: 105): I like that second-round pick Brandon Jackson has struggled this summer. But his ADP of 63 isn't enough of a discount. Note that Jackson never had more than 91 carries at Nebraska. It looks likely that Morency will get a least as much action and will probably start when healthy, so why pay a four-round premium for Jackson? If Jackson slides into the seventh or eighth round of any deep draft, he's an attractive value.

Fred Taylor, Jaguars (ADP: 61): Maurice Jones-Drew is being drafted in the second round almost everywhere, yet Taylor is starting and talking about a 1,500-rushing-yard season to get him to 11,000 for his career. Remember, he rushed for 1,146 last year on 5.0 per carry.

LaMont Jordan, Raiders (ADP: 74): Dominic Rhodes is suspended for four weeks. Rookie Michael Bush likely will be on injured reserve the entire year. So Jordan has no one to challenge him. The offense should be some semblance of professional relative to last year, with seemingly resurgent Daunte Culpepper operating in head coach Lane Kiffen's USC-styled offense (without the talent, of course).

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Ronnie Brown, Dolphins (ADP: 19): I think he's going to drop more. I'd love him as a third-rounder, where it pays to speculate that he can be LaDainian Tomlinson-light in Cam Cameron's offense (imported from San Diego, where Cameron served as coordinator). Be aware that Cameron says Jesse Chatman is vying with Brown for the starting job. But Chatman was out of football for two years.

Warrick Dunn, Falcons (ADP: 103): Came out of his first preseason game with an apparent foot injury. He's in for a shock without Michael Vick around to keep those defensive ends staying wide to protect against boot action. The running lanes will shrink and the 32-year-old Dunn is unlikely to be able to find the tight spaces. Backup Jerious Norwood might be the league's most explosive runner.

Ahman Green, Texans (ADP: 43): The same player as James and two rounds cheaper. I generally hate 30-year-old RBs. But I'll draft anyone if the price is right, as it probably will be for Green. Remember, his offensive coordinator, ex-Packers coach Mike Sherman, loves him. His primary competition for carries is Ron Dayne. 'Nuff said.

LenDale White, Titans (ADP: 99): I'm listing him as a starter because he's being drafted higher, but Jeff Fisher has announced the dreaded committee to start the year. White should be the short-yardage guy, but QB Vince Young is probably the Titans best runner on the goal line. When you have a situation like this, you normally want to draft the second guy taken. But this has the makings of a true committee. So, I'd take a very late flyer on Chris Henry (ADP: 133) and hold on to him in the hopes that the Titans turn the page in December and give him an early 2008 tryout as a full-time guy.

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Edgerrin James, Cardinals (ADP: 20): Head coach Ken Whisenhunt is backtracking from emphasizing the power running game after seeing James' decaying game this summer. Marcel Shipp seems set to get the goal-line carries. J.J. Arrington is as post-hype as you get, but has had a good camp and is worth a late-round pocket pick in deep leagues.

Clinton Portis, Redskins (ADP: 33): His knee was finally healthy enough for him to make it through a practice this week. But the missed action provides a perfect excuse for the coaching staff to sprinkle in a heavy dose of Ladell Betts (ADP: 76), who was the more effective runner by quite a wide margin in 2006. Last year, even in the eight games Portis was healthy, he had 20-plus carries just twice. Betts is also the better goal-line runner.

Chester Taylor, Vikings (ADP: 54): Adrian Peterson (ADP: 49) has done everything but wear a red cape this summer. Yet Taylor is still the starter. Peterson just oozes ability and should force his way into the vast majority of carries by Halloween. The offensive line and the defense seem conducive to a solid running game. But QB Tavaris Jackson is learning on the job and should be expected to struggle for stretches.

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