Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

These were supposed to be boom times for NFL pass catchers. At least that's what we thought in 2004, when 11 receivers had double-digit TD catches (including TE Antonio Gates).

But defensive coordinators are crafty. The side of the ball that's getting its brains beat out each week has great incentive to change. And secondaries have effectively responded. In 2005, eight receivers had double-digit TDs. Last year, just five: Cowboy Terrell Owens, Colt Marvin Harrison, Ram Torry Holt, Giant Plaxico Burress and Seahawk Darrell Jackson (now with the Niners).

Harrison, the only receiver to crack double digits all three years, is now 35 years old. Charger TE Antonio Gates is the only other man to do it back-to-back seasons of late (in '04 and '05 before falling back to nine last year).

We can confidently predict 10 or more TDs for Harrison and maybe Gates. But recent history suggests it's very unlikely that any of the other double-digit scorers of 2006 will repeat the feat in 2007.

Looking more deeply, however, Holt has gone 10, 9 and 10 in TD catches the last three years. Owens registered 14, 6 and 13, with that middle year marred by a lengthy suspension.

The obvious thing to look for when projecting top WRs is a quality QB. Ideally, the guy is also sure to be his team's primary receiver. Catch totals tell us a lot. But also looking at the number of times each team threw to a receiver ("targets"), regardless of the result, can uncover hidden value.

There were just nine receivers with more than 140 targets last year: Holt, Donald Driver (Packers), Andre Johnson (Texans), Chad Johnson (Bengals), Anquan Boldin (Cardinals), Chris Chambers (Dolphins), Laveranues Coles (Jets), Roy Williams (Lions) and Owens.

Of those, only Johnson and Coles caught more than 60 percent of targets. The best completion percentage for any receiver with more than 100 targets was T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Bengals) at 71.1 percent. Harrison and Mike Furrey (Lions) were the only other 100-plus target wideouts who caught more than 65 percent of their targets.

Just five tight ends had more than 100 targets: Jeremy Shockey (Giants), Gates, Todd Heap (Ravens), Kellen Winslow Jr. (Browns) and Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs). Winslow caught 74 percent of them, but for just 10 yards a pop. Gonzalez was most efficient -- 12.4 yards per catch with a 71-percent success rate on targets.

Of course, getting targets near the goal line gets you the TD glory. Just seven wideouts had 20 or more red-zone targets last year: Holt (30), Driver, Reggie Wayne (Colts), Chambers, Houshmandzadeh, Owens and Jerricho Cotchery (Jets).

The only TE with even 20 red zone targets was Gates, who caught 11 of those 21 passes, six for TDs.

Now let's use these stats to make some receiver recommendations for 2007.

Buy

Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets: If Chad Pennington can't make the necessary throws, Kellen Clemens look ready to step in. Either way, Cotchery will get extensive action and is a better red-zone weapon than Coles.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills: Definitely the league's most underrated receiver. He's one of those unique talents who doesn't need a good QB. But J.P. Losman really emerged in the second half of 2006.

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants: The alpha male in the Giants passing game. Last year, he scored TDs on six of seven red-zone catches, the best percentage in football.

Hold

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: Experts wisely advise avoiding rookie receivers. But the freakishly talented Johnson is the exception to the rule. Unfortunately, Williams and Furrey provide too much competition for Johnson to pop like Randy Moss in 1998.

Sell

Dallas Clark, TE, Colts: His 52-percent success rate on targets was pretty terrible considering Peyton Manning was his QB. Indy will run more three-WR sets with explosive rookie Anthony Gonzalez manning the slot.

Darrell Jackson, WR, Niners: He's battled knee and toe injuries since 2005 and the Seahawks basically gave him away off a 10-TD season. They're either really dumb or know something.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints: Took the league by storm in 2006. Now, he's got the bull's-eye on his back. Always expect receivers to struggle in their first year as a true No. 1 receiver.

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