Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Getting closer to D-Day (Draft Day), also known as Christmas morning for grownups. We're relying again on our friends at MockDraftCentral.com to give us average draft position (ADP) rankings for thousands of leagues that drafted in the past week. We'll use these rankings as the basis for our recommendations. Upgrade means we think the player will earn a profit relative to this draft investment. Downgrade means we think he'll take a loss.

Upgrade

Tatum Bell, RB, Lions (ADP: 66): He's moving up the charts very slowly. Right now, there are conflicting reports on whether Kevin Jones (torn foot) gets PUP-ed for the first six weeks. Jones is finally running through tackling dummies, but not real ones yet. Bell is the kind of guy who could take a six-week audition and, um, run with it. He's got the stench of failure on him now because of how he never was able to seize that primo Denver job. But Detroit could be a nice gig for a running back: plenty of speed at WR to keep the safeties deep, potentially explosive offense, fast playing surface…. Jones continues to be drafted just a round later, which is too high until we see him practice.

Chris Brown, RB, Titans (ADP: 148): I suspect he's moved way up the charts given his solid game last weekend and LenDale White's inability to get on the field until Wednesday. White (ankle/knee/fat) is being drafted around 97. Chris Henry, the workout-wonder of a rookie, is being grabbed, on average, at 136. Brown has a good chance to start opening day and thus has turned into the value play among this trio. While I still recommend drafting Henry, he's raw and inexperienced having never started in college or even high school.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts (ADP: 165): He's a pocket pick for me. Make sure you grab him late. Even if he's the third WR in the Colt offense, he'll be dangerous on days when Peyton Manning is dealing (i.e., most days). Forget about a 10-TD season in the slot like Brandon Stokley had as a No. 3 receiver in 2004 when Manning threw 49 TD passes. I expect only 30-to-35 TD passes from Manning. But what happens if Reggie Wayne or Marvin Harrison goes down? Then Gonzalez is the most sought after free agent receiver in fantasy football. Hardly any of the guys owners are drafting in those late rounds before him have that kind of upside. And if you're in a keeper league, remember that Harrison is 35 on Saturday.

No Change

Jeremy Shockey, TE, Giants (ADP, 69): There are a lot of Tiki Barber yards laying on the field for Shockey. But he's been battling leg woes all year and limps around Giants Stadium every Sunday like Willis Reed in Game 7. Shockey was targeted 115 times last year, more than Antonio Gates. The over/under would be 135 targets if he could ever make it through a season. He doesn't miss many games. He's just very limited in too many of them.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins (ADP: 18): He's holding steady nationally, but I thought he was a value here and now have to downgrade him. New head coach Cam Cameron is seemingly conflicted in his view of Brown. Technically, Brown's fighting for the starting job with Jesse Chatman (who Cameron coached at San Diego before weight problems forced Chatman out of football for two years). Not even Chatman thinks he'll start. But Cameron says Brown is a player who is still developing and who has yet to display the home-run ability for which he was drafted. A fair, but rather cold assessment. Brown can become a real interesting guy if he slides over general disaffection with not just him but the entire struggling Dolphins offense.

Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles (ADP: 59): Other experts are getting their Ya-Yas out over Brown. But this is where he should be drafted. Don't take the bait and reach for him. If he doesn't make it to you in Round 6, grab explosive Kevin Curtis (ADP: 118) and hope he does what Donte Stallworth did in Philly last year. Brown is a glorified possession receiver, albeit in an offense that is explosive and that throws a lot (62 percent of plays in the first half last year). He is now going to be treated like a No. 1 receiver by opposing secondaries and many receivers are rendered useless when that bullseye is on their back.

Downgrade

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs (ADP: 3): Right after he signed his deal he predicted he would not be ready for a full workload by opening day. Plus, instead of immediately ending the Priest Holmes charade, the Chiefs said they plan for Holmes to be the "third-down and short-yardage back." I think it's still likely Holmes doesn't play a down (he hadn't yet practiced through Tuesday). But if he defies the odds, LJ can lose goal-line carries, typically reserved for the short-yardage back. Johnson is a pile-driver who converted 15 of 25 goal-line runs last year, almost as efficient as LaDainian Tomlinson (15-for-23). Note the Chiefs line looks in disarray and Herm Edwards still appears bent on starting inexperienced, mistake-prone Brodie Croyle over veteran Damon Huard, who saved his bacon in '06.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers (ADP: 71): He's moved up about 10 spots the past week in the average league. Most smart guys love him. But I see a team with two stud performers who must get fed (Tomlinson and Gates) and a new head coach/offensive coordinator in Norv Turner who likes a power running game only sprinkled with big passing plays. How many times this year is Norv Turner going to try to figure out ways to get Jackson the ball? Even if the thought crosses his mind, he's going to have Tomlinson and Gates tugging at his shirtsleeve. Jackson is just happy to be playing. I don't deny the big-play ability. But he caught just 48 percent of the passes thrown to him last year, which devalues the 17.7 per reception a lot. Remember that about 25 percent of his targets last year came in the final regular season game when many starters were pulled in the third quarter.

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