Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

The predicted new age of passing proficiency never materialized after a record-shattering 2004 season coinciding with strict enforcement of the illegal contact rule (the latest in the long history of rule changes benefiting the passing game).

In 2004, nine QBs threw more than 25 TD passes, four threw more than 30 and one (Peyton Manning) threw an NFL record 49. But just six QBs have tossed more than 25 scoring strikes since (Manning and Carson Palmer have done it twice, Drew Brees and Tom Brady once).

Perhaps the reason for the decline at the top is merely that more QBs of late are not playing full seasons due to injuries and younger prospects stepping into starting jobs in-season.

Let's clarify by looking at the percentage of passes that are TDs. If you stay healthy and are on a reasonably aggressive passing team, you should get 500 attempts (a little more than 31 per game). If you then connect on TDs 5 percent of the time, that gets you 25 TD passes; 6 percent gets you 30. Manning, in 2004, threw TDs on 9.9 percent of his attempts.

In 2004, 11 passers met or bettered the 5 percent threshold. In 2005, it was seven. Last year, only five (in order, they were Donovan McNabb, Manning, Tony Romo, Palmer and Michael Vick). Additionally, note total, annual NFL TD passes since 2004: 732, 644, 648.

We've clearly lost that 2004 passing mojo. Why?

Lots of QBs may have had career seasons in 2004. But we're also likely in a defensive cycle that will last as long as takes for offensive coordinators master the Cover 2 defense now in vogue everywhere.

When looking for QB sleepers, remember that top performers in yards per pass attempt (YPA) are almost always tops in TD efficiency. A top-scoring QB should have at least a 7.5 YPA. (Romo last year finished at 8.6 and is thus very underrated.)

Functional Arm Strength is my own invention, where I focus only on QB performance on passes that travel 11-to-20 yards from scrimmage. This is the only "deep" throw in today's NFL where we have a sufficient sample size for all QBs. On average, about 19 percent of all attempts are this distance.

Now let's make some QB predictions.

Buy

Donovan McNabb, Eagles: Not only had a 100-plus QB rating on 11-to-20 yard tosses, but on throws between 20 and 40 yards, too. And about 13 percent of his attempts were 20-plus yards from scrimmage, at the high end for the league. Most importantly, the Eagles last year threw a league-high 62 percent of the time in the first half.

Marc Bulger, Rams: A healthy Bulger will be more productive than Brees this year. Bulger's passing yards were third in the league. He threw 56 percent of the time in the first half of games and most inside the opposing 10 (57 percent).

Hold

Jason Campbell, Redskins: Offensive coordinator Al Saunders called run 54 percent of the time in the first half last year, and the two-headed backfield makes 500 rushing attempts likely. But I like 10 TD passes in 207 attempts last year (just about 5 percent).

Sell

Alex Smith, Niners: Took a wrong turn right into Palookaville in the second half of 2006, with a QB rating down around 70 (it was 89 in September). The Niners will continue to run a lot in the first half (5.4 yards per carry in the first and second quarter).

Brett Favre, Packers: He's an ugly player now. His YPA is an unacceptable 6.3 and he generates first downs on less than 30 percent of total passing attempts, which slots him alongside of bums like Andrew Walter, Charlie Frye and Joey Harrington.

Byron Leftwich, Jaguars: Only David Carr and Mark Brunell generated a lower percentage of air yards than Leftwich's 44.7 (the rest of Leftwich's yards were gained by receivers after the catch). Note that those other guys now carry clipboards. David Garrard is far more accurate (12 percent poor throws -- fifth-best overall -- compared to 18 percent for Leftwich).

Steve McNair, Ravens: Once the best intermediate thrower in the game. Now, he's one of the worst, with a QB rating of 59 on 11-to-20 yard throws. McNair has clearly lost his fastball.

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