Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Average Draft Position (ADP) data is provided this week by our friends at MockDraftCentral.com, which allows users to participate in three live mock drafts per month for free. That qualifies as a preseason workout for us fantasy couch potatoes. Again, "upgrade" here means I think the player is a bargain. "Downgrade" means he's likely overpriced.

Upgrade

Chris Henry, RB, Titans (ADP: 137th overall; highest: 88th): A size/speed combine freak who never started in college or HIGH SCHOOL, Henry was drafted in the second round to start, not back up. He's third-string at the moment, but was the most impressive Titans back by far in preseason Week 1. LenDale White so unimpressed management last year that they spent the spring dancing with the Chargers in a failed attempt to trade for Michael Turner. Chris Brown is 27 and was brought back by the Titans long after no one showed serious interest in free agency. When a RB situation is as unsettled as this, the wisest course is to buy cheap and hope for the best.

Leon Washington, RB, Jets (ADP: 124th, Highest: 89th): If Thomas Jones (calf) stays healthy, Washington will be useful only in the deepest league as a change-of-pace, third-down back. But Jones is 29 and would be Top 50 all-time in carries if he makes it through the whole season. It's certainly no given that this journeyman will end 2007 as one of the 50 most durable backs in league history. Washington could be the Maurice Jones-Drew of 2007.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers (ADP: 118th, Highest: 82nd): This isn't the Steelers of 2005 on either side of the ball. Last year, they were middle of the pack in percentage of pass plays called overall and in the first-half of games. The Steelers defense is vulnerable to the pass (middle of the pack in YPA and points per attempt and now without Cowher). Roethlisberger was fighting the cobwebs last year after two massive knock-out blows (including the motorcycle accident). Throw out the first three games after the crash (and appendectomy) and first two after the KO versus the Falcons and Roethlisberger loses 14 of his picks. In the other games, he maintained a 23-TD pace (plus two rushing TDs). I think you'll be able to win with him as a starter most weeks and, at this price, there's no risk in finding out.

Michael Turner, RB, Chargers (ADP: 104th, Highest: 72nd) You let Turner slide this far and there's a guarantee that the Tomlinson owner gets him. And that Tomlinson owner needs to sweat about something. But this is an offensive move, too. The Turner owner is one Tomlinson snap, crackle or pop away from having a championship-caliber back. Turner can do what Larry Johnson did in 2005 once Priest Holmes got hurt. Remember, Tomlinson has more mileage than any RB his age in NFL history.

Vince Young, QB, Titans (ADP: 91st, Highest 53rd): This is an attractive price for a guy who should rush for eight TDs and throw for at least 16 more. With rushing TDs counting for twice as much as passing in many leagues, that's like a 32-TD pass season. And that beats almost all of the competition every year. A healthy, developing Young could rush for 10 and throw for 20. Then, you're talking "championship."

Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers (ADP: 32nd, Highest 23rd): In leagues that must play a tight end, Gates is gold. Norv Turner wants to spread him out as a wide receiver more. Gates has proven unstoppable when lined up outside hashmarks. Last year, Gates averaged 15.9 on 36 catches when standing upright at the snap. I understand that Jeremy Shockey was targeted more last year than Gates (115 passes to 113). But Tomlinson is going to regress to the mean this year, which leaves a lot more important action to Gates. Last year, near the goal line, he was targeted just three times, or one less than Bears backup TE John Gilmore. And Gates still had nine TD catches.

Hold

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (ADP: 18th, highest: 11th): This seems like a great price for a guy coming off a 16-TD season (kickoff returns count, too). But expect Fred Taylor to get half the carries as long as he stays healthy. A healthy Taylor is a good bet to be effective, too. Perhaps Jones-Drew's lack of height (5-foot-6) is still being held against him. He was 25th among running backs in goal-line plays, but his massive thighs and low center of gravity enabled him to generate six TDs in his 10 attempts. That conversion rate is way better than most backs and just a notch below LaDainian Tomlinson. Fred Taylor was 1-for-6 on the goal line and is always terrible in short yardage. Jones-Drew looks to be the very odd combination of change-of-pace, third-down and short-yardage/goal-line back.

Cedric Benson, RB, Bears (ADP: 24th, highest: 14th): Benson is being penalized for Rex Grossman's struggles in the second half and, especially, in the Super Bowl. But he's on a winning, defensive-oriented team in a weak division that often plays in rough weather. Running back production correlates significantly with winning. The carries will be there now with Thomas Jones toiling for the Jets. The safeties can't be too aggressive with Grossman seventh in the NFL last year at 12.2 yards per completion.

Downgrade

Ahman Green, RB, Texans (ADP: 43rd, Highest: 26th): That might not seem too bad in running back-mad leagues. But it's ahead of Buffalo's Marshawn Lynch, which is crazy. You want running backs sporting those showroom tires instead of retreads like Green's. Ahman's owners have to hope that he somehow stays healthy and avoids an age-based decline while unproven QB Matt Schaub instantly thrives in a new system. Other backs I'd gladly take over Green: Jerious Norwood (ADP: 55th), D'Angelo Williams (56th) and Adrian Peterson (60th).

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