Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Similar to how they line up after breaking the huddle, running backs are just behind quarterbacks on the NFL glamour scale and have brought home the bling in the form of the MVP Trophy two years running. LaDainian Tomlinson also followed Shaun Alexander in setting the NFL TD record, the third and fourth time a back has set it this decade.

Great TD seasons are always linked with an overall offense that generates a large number of red-zone possessions. Coaches throw away the goal-line playbook once the record is in sight and continue that trend the following year, as every TD champ this decade has followed up with a second league-leading year. The workload appears to take a toll in year three -- two of the three (Alexander and Marshall Faulk) badly declined while the other, Priest Holmes, missed half a season with injury.

Tomlinson's 2,448 touches since entering the NFL in 2001 are 25th most in NFL history. And no one has had 390-plus touches like LDT for six straight years. That's why the Chargers refused to trade free-agent-to-be Michael Turner (6.0 career rushing average).

The team with the most red zone possessions in 2007 will likely have feature the TD king. The Chargers led the NFL with 62 last year, but the Colts tied them and the Patriots were just two behind. The Cowboys made a late charge behind Tony Romo, finishing with 58. The Steelers were fifth with 56.

Expect breakout TD seasons from second-year RBs Laurence Maroney (Pats) and Joseph Addai (Colts), now extricated from committee situations. While Tom Brady and Peyton Manning throw lots of TDs, both backs have good hands. And since these QBs generate TDs on nearly two-thirds of red-zone possessions, there will be plenty of love to go around.

With the likelihood of a committee in Dallas (featuring Julius Jones and Marion Barber), a sleeper pick for TD supremacy is Willie Parker in Pittsburgh.

New Orleans fluky success generating scores on long passes kept their red zone possessions down last year. But Drew Brees moves the chains (third-best at converting third downs). Alas, Reggie Bush can't turn into Faulk Jr. while losing most carries near the goal line to Deuce McAllister (three times the goal-line carries as Bush).

Let's use these stats to make some running back predictions for 2007.

Buy

Willie Parker, Steelers: New offensive coordinator Bruce Arians promises Parker all the important touches. He was fourth in goal-line plays last year (22). Ben Roethlisberger should rebound from his concussion-related 2006 struggles.

Steven Jackson, Rams: Sixth in goal-line plays (20). The Rams will be top five in red-zone possessions if Marc Bulger plays to form on third downs (just 19th best in '06) in his second year in Scott Linehan's system.

Laurence Maroney, Patriots: Just to make the above recommendation official. A healthy Maroney should score 15-to-25 TDs, depending on how the goal-line plays break.

Joseph Addai, Colts: Peyton Manning will call Addai's number near paydirt more than many think: 50 runs, 39 passes inside the opposing 10 last year.

Willis McGahee, Ravens: Steve McNair could fall off the cliff. But he was top 10 in third-down efficiency. The Ravens defense generates great field position that results in more offensive red-zone possessions.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills: The committee talks can't be serious. Lynch (12th overall pick) has a very high ceiling as a do-it-all back. He needs young QB J.P. Losman to continue his fine late-2006 play.

Hold

Larry Johnson, Chiefs: The Chiefs first must get LJ back into camp and then put sophomore Brodie Croyle on the backburners. Damon Huard was very capable last year, though he faltered on third down (76 QB rating).

Frank Gore, Niners: Alex Smith did not progress (pathetic 63.8 QB rating in December). But Smith was adequate on third down, which provides faint hope for the red-zone possessions needed for a Gore TD breakout.

Sell

Clinton Portis, Redskins: Backup Ladell Betts (4.7 per carry) was much better last year and Portis (4.1 per carry) has knee and chronic shoulder problems.

Travis Henry, Broncos: One ill-timed fumble or shiny moment from a backup can suddenly change Mike Shanahan's RB depth chart. Henry is old for a RB (28) and seemed washed up two years ago.

---